Those Missing Barrels -- "Focus On Fracking" Has Noted This For Several Months -- October 31, 2022

Updates

Later, 1:39 p.m. CT: sometime tries to explain this --  

Original Post 

The bigger question: how many other Biden agencies are providing inaccurate data for political reasons?

More missing barrels and adjustments:

Link here.

This is a 3% adjustment.

Missing barrels, Reuters link here:

Missing barrels, link here:

Link to "Focus On Fracking."

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA 

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 21st indicated that due to two and a quarter million barrels per day of extra US oil supplies that could not be accounted for,

we had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time time in 8 weeks, and for the 21st time in the past 48 weeks, despite record ​shipments of crude​ oil​ exports....

Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 273,000 barrels per day to average 6,180,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 156,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 991,000 barrels per day to a record of 5,129,000 barrels per day, which together meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to an import average of 1,051,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 21st, 718,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week.

Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 12,000,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 13,051,000 barrels per day during the October 21st reporting week…

With our oil exports at a record high, we'll include a historical graph of them below, where you can see that prior to the end of 2014, US oil exports, except for those allowed under NAFTA, had been negligible because they had been banned 40 years earlier, in the wake of the Arab oil embargo. The ban on US oil exports was lifted in a spending bill that Congress passed during the last week of 2015, part of a compromise that Obama agreed to in order to avoid a government shutdown...​as you can see, ​th​e recent ​export spike​s​ clearly beat ​the ​previous ​oil export ​highs by a large margin.​..​​

ISO-New England Looking To Biden For Help -- Two Arrows Left In His Quiver -- October 31, 2022

From multiple sources, including NBC:

Eversource CEO Joe Nolan wrote a letter to President Joe Biden last week warning of the possibility of power outages this winter if steps aren't taken to expand the country's natural gas supply.

In his letter, dated Oct. 27, Nolan said New England might not have enough natural gas to meet the region's electricity supply if this winter is colder than anticipated.

"ISO-New England, the region’s electricity grid operator, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have acknowledged for many months that New England will not have sufficient natural gas to meet power supply needs for the region in the event of a severe cold spell this winter," he said. "This represents a serious public health and safety threat."

"Consumers in New England are already experiencing skyrocketing electricity and gas costs given supply constraints and global price pressures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Nolan added. "As the governors of the New England states mentioned in their letter to the Administration on July 27, New England’s energy situation will have significant implications for customers of all types."

He urged Biden to use the federal government's emergency powers to take steps to ensure that adequate fuel resources will be available in the event of a colder than expected New England winter.

I assume the only arrow left in Joe Biden's quiver is a US ban / limit on LNG gas exports to Europe. There are now a glut of LNG tankers headed to Europe to destinations that no longer have storage capacity. 

I expect Joe Biden to make a speech along this line. No doubt, his folks drafted the letter for the EverSource CEO to write, to give Biden cover for the next executive order.

There is one last arrow in the Biden quiver but that would cost the Dems a lot of votes, so don't expect that to ever happen: waive the Jones Act.

This Will Be THE Energy Story Of The Year -- Diesel -- October 31, 2022

Europe starting to run out of diesel. I guess that 25-day supply was an exaggeration. Link here.

So, I'm curious. Did anyone read the Forbes article. Probably not. 

There are four reasons for the diesel shortage this year. Two of them apply every year.

The third, relatively unimportant, unless one asks why they were unprofitable -- several unprofitable refineries closed over the past couple of years, so this third reason is also a bit overplayed.

The fourth and real reason:

But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S. 

Let's fact-check, link check.

US imports by country of origin, goose eggs from Russia:

Russian imports:

And interestingly enough, most of those Russian imports are off-loaded in New England (needs to be fact-checked) and that's where the biggest shortage has occurred.

In addition, the fastest way to get petroleum products to destination is by pipeline, and New England activists hate pipelines; they appear to prefer diesel-burning trucks on the road. Probably reminds Bernie Sanders of his days in Russia.

And, of course, Joe Biden knows something about trucks -- he started out in life as a truck driver. Or so he says.

Mercedes -- EVs -- Profit Margins Not Provided -- September, 2022, and 3Q22

Link here:

Mercedes-Benz Cars reports 520,100 global car sales during the third quarter of 2022, which is 20% more than a year ago. The number includes 517,800 Mercedes-Benz Passenger Cars (up 21%) and a small number of vans.

The German manufacturer clearly is recovering from the weaker first part of the year.

The most important thing for us is that Mercedes-Benz's all-electric car sales more than doubled in Q3 to 30,000. That's almost 6% of the total volume.

[Profit margins unstated; compared to ICE profit margins, also unstated.]

September was an especially strong month, which brought a new record of 13,100 BEVs, including 3,400 Mercedes-Benz EQBs.

Overall, plug-in electric car sales (BEVs and PHEVs) in Q3 amounted to 75,900 (up 23% year-over-year), which is nearly 15% of the total volume. In Europe, the xEV share is much higher, at 34%.

Mercedes-Benz global plug-in car sales in Q3 2022 (preliminary numbers, including smart BEVs):

BEVs (excl. smart): 30,000 (up 115% from 14,000 a year ago) including 5,400 EQS and 3,500 EQE

PHEVs: 45,900

Total plug-ins: 75,900 (up 23%) and close to 15% share

**********************************
McKinsey -- September 2021

Link here.

However, the study points out that there is a problem: today, most OEMs do not make a profit from the sale of EVs. In fact, these vehicles often cost $12,000 more to produce than comparable vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) in the small- to midsize car segment and the small-utility-vehicle segment.

What is more, carmakers often struggle to recoup those costs through pricing alone.

The result: apart from a few premium models, OEMs stand to lose money on almost every EV sold, which is clearly unsustainable.

Halloween -- 2022

President Biden's Halloween:

Tickers:

• DVN: up 2.7%; up $2.03; trading at $78.04; near a 52-week high;
• CVX: up 1.5%; up $2.62; trading $182.44; hit a 52-week high at opening;
• XOM: up 1%; up $1.06; trading at $111.72; hit a 52-week high at opening;
• EOG: up 2.83%; up $.379; trading at $137.51; well off its highs:
• HES: up 1%; up %1.51; trading at $142; still below its 52-week high;
• OXY: up 2%; up $1.54; trading at $73.39; still below its 52-week high;
• BRK: smiling
  

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44

WTI: $87.20.

Natural gas: $6.342

Tuesday, November 2, 2022: 1 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 482 for the year.
None.

Monday, November 1, 2022: 1 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 482 for the year.
38891, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-2TFH,

Sunday, October 30, 2022: 36 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 481 for the year.
38892, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-3TFH,
38400, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-4, EN-J Horst wells (Hess, Robinson Lake)

Saturday, October 29, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 479 for the year.
38893, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen B 18-19-4TFHL,
38817, conf, CLR, Bonneville 11-23HSL,Bonneville / Bridger Wells (CLR, Rattlesnake Point) 
38399, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-3, EN-J Horst wells (Hess, Robinson Lake)

RBN Energy: growing LNG flotilla has big implications for European gas market. Archived.

The European gas year commenced October 1 with expectations of high winter demand and commensurate gas and LNG prices. However, in recent days the press — both trade and mainstream — have remarked on the number of laden LNG carriers that have been circling, anchored or drifting around the Mediterranean and East Atlantic. This flotilla, currently numbering about 30 cargoes, or 2.1 million metric tons (MMt) of LNG, has been growing since late September and includes some cargoes that have been at sea for over a month. Although floating storage ahead of winter demand is nothing new, the scale of the current phenomenon is unprecedented. In today’s RBN blog, we explore the implications for European gas pricing and market dynamics.