CLR 3Q19 Earnings -- October 30, 2019

From the press release:

• $158.2 million in net income in 3Q19, or $0.43 per diluted share
• $199.4 million adjusted net income in 3Q19, or $0.54 per diluted share (non-GAAP)
• 198,074 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 20% over 3Q18
• 332,315 boepd average daily 3Q19 production up 12% over 3Q18
• Bakken: 145,436 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 13% over 3Q18
• 57 gross operated wells deliver 2,313 boepd average/well initial rate
• South: 44,854 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 62% over 3Q18
• SpringBoard exceeded 3Q19 target by 31%: 23,641 bopd; 4Q19 target raised to ~24,000 Bopd
• CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate
• $187 million of share repurchases executed through October 29, 2019
• quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share in November 2019

Note, repeating:

• CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate

Random Update Of An Old Bakken Well In Squaw Creek; No Evidence Of A Re-Frack -- October 30, 2019

Until recently, I had not seen FracFocus with frack data before 2012 (in the Bakken). That doesn't mean FracFocus did not have such data or that wells were not fracked before 2012 (obviously not the case), it simply means I had not see FracFocus data for Bakken wells fracked before and during 2012; I had looked at a lot of those wells that were drilled / completed before and during 2012.

Today, I see that FracFocus has the data for a well that was fracked in late 2011, a one-day frack on December 30, 2011, and tested on January 4, 2012. FracFocus shows 2.1 million gallons of water, 82% by mass; sand, about 6.5% by mass. Neither FracFocus nor NDIC suggests this well was ever refracked.

The well: 

• 20238, 180, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35H, 30 stages; 3.3 million lbs; Squaw Creek, t1/12; cum 216K 8/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	27	13035	13006	17058	18341	1650	13220
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	20	5561	5390	19246	7824	4299	2554
BAKKEN	5-2019	1	30	0	0	42	0	39
BAKKEN	4-2019	6	252	470	385	692	438	100
BAKKEN	3-2019	12	411	421	157	579	148	216
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	817	835	250	1866	714	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	1258	1223	420	2101	1248	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1390	1481	394	2182	1255	0

If the "average" production just prior to 8/19 can be taken to be about 1,500 bbls/month, then the jump in production to 14,483 bbls (normalized to 30 days), then we have a 10-fold increase in production.

This well had been previously identified/listed as a well of interest but that frack data had not been posted until now. 

US Crude Oil Inventories Surge; Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- October 30, 2019

EIA: weekly crude oil inventories (remember, API: small build, less than a million bbls, reported yesterday):

• weekly change:  increased by a whopping 5.7 million bbls
• WTI: drops a percent; now under $55
• OPEC basket: drops about a percent; $61 and change
• break-even for Saudi Arabia: $86.50 (link here; IMF)
• US crude oil inventories: at 438.9 million bbls, now 1% above the five-year average
• analysts: probably just a timing thing, a mismatch with export dates; not to worry
• refiners: operating at 87.7% capacity; perhaps a bit better than last few weeks but incredibly low
• MPC: largest US refiner -- down 2.3%; down $1.56
• jet fuel? elites flying more than ever -- atmospheric CO2? what atmospheric CO2? -- jet fuel supplied was up 9.6% compared with same four-week period last year 
• sadly, the grounding of 737 MAX isn't helping; much more fuel efficient; and so it goes

*******************************
Re-Balancing

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 39	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 40	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 41	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 42	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1
Week 43	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1
Week 44	September 26, 2019	2.4	419.5
Week 45	October 2, 2019	3.1	422.6
Week 46	October 9, 2019	2.9	425.6
Week 47	October 17, 2019	9.3	434.9
Week 48	October 23, 2019	-1.7	433.2
Week 49	October 30, 2019	5.7	438.9

***********************************

Miscellaneous

Jeffrey: homicide? Well, duh.

FDR: considered one of the best presidents ever; under whose watch did "Pearl Harbor" occur? Remained neutral until that attack. Neutral? With all that was going on in Europe? Just thinking out loud. 

Trump: gets almost the entire Mideast to join the US in sanctions on Iran. Timing is interesting. Baghdadi's dead. Haven't heard much out of North Korea lately. Just thinking out loud.

The market:

• Dow: absolutely flat ... 0.0000
• YUM: not so yummy. Drops 10%
• PCG: investors lose $4.1 billion in four trading days; CalPERS -- huge loses; previously posted;

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 30, 2019

PCG: in pre-market trading, PCG is up almost 20%, up almost a buck on a $5-stock.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

APPL: reports after the market closes today.

Dow futures: climbing the wall of worry; counting on a Fed rate cut today. Consensus: 90% of analysts, "they" say, expect a cut in the "Fed's" interest rate. Before the market opens:

• BA: after a huge day yesterday -- up over 2%; gained $8.05 -- this was the day the BA CEO testified before Congress; does one get the feeling that appearing before Congress is no big deal; Facebook did just fine after its CEO testified; now BA did just fine after its CEO testified
• GE (not part of the Dow), one of the movers today -- up over 7% in pre-market trading; there must be a whole ecosystem of traders that do nothing but bottom feet -- if so, must be making a killing 
• EW: looks like it hit an intra-day high yesterday
• GNRC: after all the excitement, dropped back a bit yesterday
• AMZN:

NASDAQ is up 13 points. At 8,067 -- see all-time highs below.

• AAPL: after a 2.3% loss yesterday, up a bit today in pre-market trading; up $1.45

NASDAQ all-time highs:

• closing: Friday, July 26, 2019 -- earlier this year -- 8,330.21
• intraday: Friday, July 26, 2019 -- earlier this year -- 8,339.64 

Public school vacation in Chicago: continues. Into ten days; no end in sight?

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 30, 2019

Tesla: one would think that the BYD story is very, very concerning for Tesla, which is pretty much focused on China. It's all about subsidies.

Tesla: filing shows US sales tumbled almost 40% in third quarter and yet their quarterly income was amazing. Something tells me analysts are poring over Tesla's most recent quarterly report. Things simply do not add up.

U.S. sales, which account for the biggest share of the company’s total revenue, fell to $3.13 billion from $5.13 billion a year earlier.

Sales in China rose 64% to $669 million and its other segment, which covers the rest of the globe, rose by more than a billion dollars to $1.83 billion.

“Musk & Co. are laser-focused on Europe and China for growth, while domestically, core demand is fading relative to other regions,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said, adding that U.S. growth will remain more challenging going forward.

In its earnings report earlier this month, Tesla reported a nearly 8% drop in total revenue to $6.30 billion, missing analysts’ average estimate of $6.33 billion.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Denver: more snow, record cold, winter storm warning in effect (winter won't officially be here for several more weeks).

North Dakota: