Six New Permits -- April 17, 2019

Active rigs:

$63.76	4/17/2019	04/17/2018	04/17/2017	04/17/2016	04/17/2015
Active Rigs	64	59	52	29	93

Six new permits:

• Operators: Hess (5); MRO
• Fields: Alkali Creek (Mountrail County); Chimney Butte (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for a 5-well EN-Thompson Trust pad in section 18-154-94, Alkali Creek;
• MRO has a permit for a Delmont well in section 23-146-95, Chimney Butte

One permit canceled:

• 35964, Whiting, a Rauser well permit, in McKenzie County

A Fairly Unremarkable Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 17, 2019

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here, data points:

• US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.4 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories now stand at 455.2 million bbls, about 2% below the five-year average; and the 5-year average has been rising over the past year or so
• refineries operating at 87.7% capacity
• a fairly unremarkable report compared to the past few weeks

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.8
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	Apr 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2

******************************

Putting Things Into Perspective

From twitter today:

• $5 billion / year / population of US = $5 billion / 300 million = $20/person/year
• per day = 5 cents/day/per person

Color me unimpressed / not excited about monetary concern over sanctions on Venezuela and Iran
In addition, the $5 billion / year cost contains many assumptions. The biggest assumption, of course, is that as the price of oil goes up, the price of gasoline goes up, and American drivers don't change their driving habits.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- April 17, 2019

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, April 17, 2019: 59 wells for the month; 59 wells for the quarter

• 34313, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23B, North Fork, no production data, 
• 33880, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 6-20-17-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data;
• 30910, 1,301, BR, Curtis 24-9 MBH, North Fork, t2/19; cum --;
• 27736, 424, Oasis, McCauley 5601 41-34 6B, Tyrone, t11/18; cum 62K 2/19;

Active rigs (to newbies, anything above 66 active rigs is a very, very bullish sign for the Bakken; below 59 would be concerning):

$64.44	4/17/2019	04/17/2018	04/17/2017	04/17/2016	04/17/2015
Active Rigs	65	59	52	29	93

RBN Energy: the frack sand revolution, part 4. Archived here.

Nowadays, the hydraulic fracturing of a typical Permian well with a 10,000-foot lateral requires about 12,500 tons of frac sand — enough sand to fill more than 500 large sand trucks. That sand needs to be at the ready — delivered, offloaded, stored, and set for blending and use. If it’s not, the well completion and the start of production would be delayed or the hydraulic fracturing process would be shut down after starting — a mortal sin in the shale world. With reliable, seamless access to frac sand at the well site being so critical, E&Ps and their pressure pumpers are understandably doing all they can to optimize their “last-mile” sand logistics. This involves everything from minimizing truck-delivery congestion to maximizing the speed at which sand is transferred from truck to storage, as well as the type of storage used. It’s all much more high-tech than you might think. Today, we conclude our series with a look at the latest in last-mile logistics, which can account for as much as one-third of the total delivered cost of sand.

Pelosi, Et Al, Have Not Been Able To Do The Math -- April 16, 2019

Updates

April 17, 2019: just like clockwork. Yesterday, Yuma became the second city to cry "Uncle." Today, this headline: group of 170 migrants surrender at Texas border. From McAllen, TX, the main route for drug smuggling and human trafficking, a group of 170 migrants from Central American surrended to US authorities shortly after crossing the Rio Grande. The migrants claimed to be from Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

Original Post

We now have the second city crying "Uncle!" First, it was Las Cruces, now it's Yuma, Arizona.

I don't think Pelosi et al understand the math.

Less than an additional 200 migrants overwhelmed Las Cruces, NM. Now, Yuma says it's reached its breaking point. The number of immigrants coming in was not noted, but my hunch it's far less than 100,000.

The federal government says it rounded up 103,000 illegal immigrants along the southern border in March, 2019.

If the trend continues, it's hard for me to believe that Arizona, New Mexico, or Texas will vote against Trump in 2020.

Huge Win For Both, But Investors Clearly Think Qualcomm Was The Big Winner -- Waiting For Trump To Weigh In With His Two Cents Worth -- April 16, 2019, T+4, Part 2

Updates

April 18, 2019: see original note. Apparently there is at least one other lawsuit/issue. It turns out Apple and Qualcomm are still going to court to settle the patent issue. I'm not sure I understand all this.

Having said, regarding the case that was settled out of court this week, Macrumors has more on this issue. Not publicly disclosed but UBS analyst suggests:

• Apple likely paid somewhere around $5 to $6 billion to settle its ongoing legal battle with Qualcomm
• this $5 to $6 billion payment would have been royalty fees that Apple had stopped paying over the course of its two-year legal fight with Qualcomm
• Qualcomm may also be receiving between $8 and $9 per iPhone from Apple in ongoing patent royalties
• Qualcomm said is expects to increase its earnings per share by $2
• Apple previously paid $7.50 in royalties, so at $8 to $9 per iPhone, Apple would be shelling out more cash than it did before
• Apple appears to have had no alternative but to settle with Qualcomm, as it had no other way to source 5G chips for its 2020 iPhone lineup
• Apple initially had planned to use Intel chips but rumors suggest that Intel wasn't meeting development goals
• after the Apple-Qualcomm settlement was announced, Intel announced it was abandoning 5G chip development altogether
• Samsung will start rolling out 5G this year; Apple could not afford any delay

Original Post

Apple / Qualcomm settle suit out of court.

Qualcomm stock surges, but it was also a huge win for AAPL investors also.

The trial was set to begin this month.

Site of trial: San Diego:

Qualcomm headquartered in San Diego.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read her.

Netflix: later. If I remember.

IBM: misses.

WTI: whoo-hoo -- up 1%; closed at $64.04. Link here, API data:

• crude oil inventory, weekly draw of 3.096 million bbls vs expectations of a 1.711 million barrel build
• gasoline draw of 3.561 million bbls; vs a draw of 2.133 million bbls
• false precision: 0.001 million bbls = 1,000 bbls
• numbers would be a bit more "credible" if the draw had been 3 million bbls vs an expectation of 2 million bbls
• 1,000 bbls / 100 million bbls consumed daily world wide = 0.00001 or 0.001% (assuming the arithmetic is correct; a big assumption)
• whatever

Hope springs eternal: T-Mobile / Sprint deal unlikely in current form.

The "fix" is in: FAA finds Boeing "fix" "suitable." Has anyone seen the ATT commercials, "just good enough" is not good enough? Or something to that effect. "Hello, this is your captain speaking. In a few minutes we will be taking off. Thank you for choosing to fly our Boeing 737 Max 8. The FAA has found 'our fix' to crashing jets to be 'suitable.' Have a good flight."

I can give you sixteen reasons, but eight is a good start: "8 reasons why gas prices are going up." Link here, at MoneyWise. The number one reason, the elephant in the room: President Obama killed the Keystone XL. Six of the eight reasons given at the link are crap but they "cover" Obama's ass.

China: looking to buy more US pork, poultry to reach trade deal. 10-1 odds Trump will be given no credit by the mainstream media if this happens. China was hoping to wait Trump out but Goldman Sachs now predicts Trump will win a second term. Trump's popularity at this point is higher than Obama's -- 53%.

Wells Fargo: could be the GE of the banking sector, InvestorPlace. Warren Buffett has held on to Wells Fargo through thick and thin.

Beto; not charitable. Released tax returns: never gave more than 0.5% of $350,000 annual income. What was that about tithing? From a reader, if 10% was good enough for Jesus, 10% ought to be good enough for Uncle Sam:

If 10% Is Good Enough ...., Ray Stevens
Boeing: government bailout just in time. Secures $14 billion deal for modernizing B-1 and B-52 bombers. Zacks. Zacks with a "k." Goldman Sachs with an "h."

Home free. Anadarko rises after analysts say Chevron deal "looks fair." Has anyone see the new ATT commercials ....