The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+ 65 -- October 17, 2018

A page from the Feinstein playbook. The October surprise. Let's see -- I assume "operatives" are debating best day to release the report. On a Friday before/after news cycle so it will get maximum play on Sunday morning talk shows? Monday morning before election in November? On a Saturday?

I didn't read the story (and no plans to do so) but has President Trump submitted his answers to Mueller's questions yet? I assume the White House would delay getting the answers to Mueller until well after the election unless ...

California politics: two Democrats are vying for the US Senate in the 2018 midterms. Under the new California "rules," the two highest vote-getters in the primary will square off in the general election, regardless of party. And as expected, two Democrats will square off this year. The GOP is supporting Feinstein -- her opponent is "much worse" in the eyes of some. But worse, it's proven that once elected to the US Senate, it's pretty much a life-time appointment unless you really screw up. Feinstein's opponent: 51 years old. Feinstein: 85 years old. You do the math. Either Republican John Cox or Democrat Gavin Newsom will be appointing a new US Senator sometime in the next six years. Gavin Newsom will win; former mayor of San Francisco. Same city where Diane Feinstein was born and raised.

Market: just before the market opens, Dow (irrelevant) futures down 125 points and WTI trending down (again).

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The Book Page

The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016.

Again, the writing is a bit laborious. I had to skim through about a hundred pages, but still following the main themes. Then, highly rewarded. The story of Napoleon invading Egypt in 1799; the Rosetta stone, Bouchard the engineer who discovered the stone, and Thomas Young who deciphered the Rosetta stone.

Wow, skim through wiki's entry on Thomas Young. The Rosetta Stone was just a small piece of his life.

The Rosetta Stone, three texts in three different writing systems, three different symbol sets --

• Egyptian hieroglyphs;
• demotic: the shorthand script, the alphabet of demes, the writing system of the common people; yet another unknown Egyptian symbol system; and,
• Greek, a well-known language

Thomas Young: English, near where Shakespeare had lived, south of the River Avon; known as "The Phenomenon"; he learned a dozen languages including European languages; eight Middle Eastern languages (Hebrew, Chaldean, Syriac, Samaritan, Arabic, Persian, Turkish, and Amharic).

From the book:

After fifteen years of work, Young cracked the code of the Egyptian demotic script (the Rosetta Stone), the writing system of Eygpt's commoners.

Thomas Young's fame for translating languages became so great that he was asked to write the article on languages in the ultimate reference book, a book series that was by then verging on fifty years old, the Encylopedia Britannia. Young did write that definitive article. 

And in the process, he compared the grammar and vocabulary of over four hundred languages. 

So Young was very aware of the power of translation. Very aware of the power of isomorphic symbol sets.

But Young's biggest contribution to science had to do with waves. I'll stop here. It just gets better and better.

Jobs And Wage Growth -- Making America Great Again -- October 17, 2018

One has to ask the question again: what the heck were Bush II and Sir Saint Obama doing for sixteen years?

First, re-posting this graphic.

Now, today, this from Reuters:

MRO Reports Another Huge Well -- October 17, 2018

See this link.

• 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, Antelope, cum 35K after 13 days; extrapolates to 82K over 30 days; 1600-acre drilling unit; t8/18; cum 243K 2/19;
  

Production profile update:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2019	28	37924	37896	32679	66960	26998	37715
SANISH	1-2019	19	16164	15994	25550	21279	10447	9837
SANISH	12-2018	3	3484	3598	3641	8038	1105	6726
SANISH	11-2018	30	51976	52085	46099	95660	14738	77891
SANISH	10-2018	21	32029	32855	34524	50532	10216	38446
SANISH	9-2018	30	65684	64673	71297	100404	0	96629
SANISH	8-2018	13	35492	35253	34530	37273	0

Re-Posting: This MRO Well Extrapolates To 107K Bbls Crude Oil Over 30 Days -- October 17, 2018

Updates

March 9, 2019: I could have picked any well in this group to highlight. They are incredible. Production data for #34484, Yellowface:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	373	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	26	38121	38149	36122	55231	22311	30136
BAKKEN	10-2018	22	64629	64806	97592	100750	25283	71165
BAKKEN	9-2018	22	59992	59414	56538	63182	0	59228

 

Original Post

I am completely blown away by this well.  I am re-posting the original note with minor edits and updates.

In addition to everything else, note that it is a Three Forks upper bench well. Years ago, Lynn Helms famously said that the Three Forks was likely to be better than the middle Bakken on a well-to-well comparison. For newbies: that would be comparing a TF with a MB drilled from the same pad, using optimized completion strategies on both.

Also, note: the drilling unit has eleven horizontal wells; room for many more.

For newbies: when the boom began, folks were drilling wells anticipating an EUR of 375,000 bbls.

The geologist's report and the fracking data is yet to be scanned in at the NDIC site.

The spacing unit: 1600 acres according to the permit. S23 &24T151 R94 - W/2 19T151 R93;

Note the IP: 8,887. Record IPs, FAQ 9 at this post.

Staggering:

• crude oil: extrapolates to 107K over 30 days
• natural gas: extrapolates to  17K boe over 30 days
• total boe extrapolates to 124K over 30 days

NDIC File No: 32972     API No: 33-053-07751-00-00     CTB No: 219446 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 8/29/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: NESE 22-151-94     Footages: 1676 FSL 749 FEL     Latitude: 47.881082     Longitude: -102.688255 Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY Current Well Name: LAMARR USA 13-23TFH Elevation(s): 2193 KB   2166 GR   2179 GL     Total Depth: 23740     Field: REUNION BAY Spud Date(s):  11/16/2017 Casing String(s):  9.625" 2042'   7" 11164'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11266-23603     Comp: 8/29/2018     Status: F     Date: 8/31/2018     Spacing: ICO Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 17765     Cum MCF Gas: 16877     Cum Water: 10005 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 8/31/2018     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 8887     IP MCF: 10628     IP Water: 5541

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 8-2018 5 17765 17352 10005 16877 0 15720

Well file:

• geologic report: not yet scanned in
• fracking report: not yet scanned in

FracFocus: 33-053-07751

• fracked 6/25/2018 - 7/9/2018
• 10.8 million gallons of water (typical amount seen in Bakken 2.5); 
• water: 88.6% by mass
• sand: 11% by mass

Other posts:

• December 22, 2017
• September 12, 2018: 
• September 12, 2018: #19446; it is close to this one -- look at that huge IP -- 32971, 8,702, MRO,Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay

Wells in graphics below:

• 33980, 6,113, MRO, Michelle USA 14-14TFH, t10/18; cum 144K 1/19;
• 33981, 5,386, MRO, Phyllis USA 11-23H, t11/18; cum 128K 1/19;
• 33982, 6,325, MRO, Clara USA 11-23TFH-2B, t10/18; cum 184K 1/19;
• 21172, 5,067, MRO, TAT USA 12-23H, t11/18; cum 142K 1/19;

• 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, t9/18; cum 265K 1/19; only 1 day in 1/19;
• 32974, dry, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H,
• 32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, t9/18; cum 223K 1/19;

• 19446, 24 (no typo), MRO, TAT USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, 22 stages; 3.2 million lbs;, t2/11; cum 91K 8/18; was off line for the past year (about 11 months); was on line for 12 days in 8/18; it took 105 hours to drill the vertical (in 2018, they can drill these verticals in 55 hours); the lateral was drilled in 186 hours (in 2018, they can drill these laterals in 55 hours); the report did not say how long it took to build the curve (assume about 5 days); gas shows reached 3,000 units in some areas, but generally weak throughout most of the lateral; the lateral was 95% within the zone and 100% within the middle Bakken. Sporadic activity; after months of no production, 6 bbls on one day in 1/19;

• 34484, IA/6,504, MRO, Yellowface USA 13-23H, t9/18; cum 163K 1/19; off line as of 12/18:
• 32972, see above;
• 32971, see this post;
• 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, Antelope, t8/18; cum 205K 1/19; geologist's report and frack data not yet posted over at NDIC; 1600-acre drilling unit;

The graphics:

Is The Niobrara Really The Next Big Thing? -- RBN Energy -- October 17, 2018

Cruz vs O'Rourke: no knockout punch.

WTI: confounding analysts. Still trending down.

Posting again: that huge MRO well that was reported yesterday.

Earnings: KMI reports after market close today.

LNG demand, globally: will post strong growth to 2027, outperforming the wider energy complex -- one would assume "wider" energy complex includes renewable energy (but probably not). Why? emerging Asia (China).

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today --

• 34685, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 31X-10C,  Heart Butte, no production data,
• 34217, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Howell-LW-156-91-1107H-4, Ross, no production data, 

Active rigs:

$71.46↓	10/17/2018	10/17/2017	10/17/2016	10/17/2015	10/17/2014
Active Rigs	69	58	32	67	190

RBN Energy: is the Niobrar really the next big thing?

Crude oil production in the Rockies’ Niobrara region is up by more than 50% since the beginning of last year, spurred on by higher oil prices, ample oil pipeline takeaway capacity, and other positive factors. Natural gas and NGL production in the Niobrara — which includes both the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin and the Powder River Basin (PRB) — has been rising too, to the point that there’s a scramble on to develop new gathering systems, gas processing plants as well as gas and NGL pipeline capacity. A number of exploration and production companies are upbeat about the region’s prospects; so are some midstreamers. But there’s a dark cloud on the horizon — at least in Colorado, where voters will decide in a few weeks whether to significantly restrict where new wells can be drilled. Is the Niobrara poised for continued growth or not? Today, we kick off a new series on Rockies production, infrastructure and prospects.