Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Random Update Of A CLR Syracuse Well -- June 6, 2018

The Syracuse / Chicago wells are tracked here.

As promised, here's a stand-alone post for this well:
  • 19740, 646, CLR, Syracuse 1-23H, Banks, API - 33-053-03310, t7/11; cum 421K 4/18;
According to FracFocus it has not been re-fracked. Here's the recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2018291077211191116821677080738697
BAKKEN3-2018251055910309134581529178307461
BAKKEN2-2018281124511321171741891918066853
BAKKEN1-20182716833162272345231462236967766
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201715690976405157215720
BAKKEN8-20173117681710962406740670
BAKKEN7-201731177716951028422642260
BAKKEN6-201730191520141092453045300
BAKKEN5-201731235124321335471847180
BAKKEN4-20172815391343880271927190
BAKKEN3-20173120442296971416641660
BAKKEN2-20172818371775876366036600
BAKKEN1-201731206620421041401440140
BAKKEN12-20163121792093116741283938190
BAKKEN11-201630213321201361394439440

This was the production data for the first nine months following the original frack. Note that the January, 2018, production jump almost equaled that when the well was first drilled, back in 2011.

BAKKEN2-2012291225112404343417216172160
BAKKEN1-20123186328896272313022130220
BAKKEN12-2011311165111349326413959139590
BAKKEN11-201130673366691867896489640
BAKKEN10-201131819583052378983098300
BAKKEN9-2011301091510678327816032160320
BAKKEN8-2011311234112629363316451164510
BAKKEN7-2011311930719241682021318213180
BAKKEN6-201114844378368725277627760

Learning More About The Bakken -- The Syracuse / Chicago Wells -- June 6, 2018

Disclaimer: I do these quickly and I may misread file numbers and misread the NDIC map, but I'm pretty sure I have this update and other updates on the blog correct.

Disclaimer: never make any decisions about Bakken investments based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Through a bit of serendipity, I learned a bit more about the Bakken which raises some questions regarding my thoughts about the jump in production in wells neighboring newly fracked wells. Having said that, in the big scheme of things, it does not matter to someone who participates in mineral rights royalties why an increase in production occurs. The purpose of the blog is not investment, per se, but rather, to better understand the Bakken. So, I'm still learning.

22375, about 700 feet to the east of #31068, API for #22375 is 33-053-03972. FracFocus suggests that this well was not re-fracked despite the jump in production from 15,00 bbls/month to 13,000 bbls/month.
  • 22375, 814, CLR, Chicago 2-26H, Banks, t6/12; cum 245K 4/18; 
Recent Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201821306130714678420722261981
BAKKEN3-201830559654338053940180771324
BAKKEN2-20182140284126678464716336135
BAKKEN1-20183112758128321719625544243121232
BAKKEN12-2017148453805210373128471277077
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201716534755307103110310
BAKKEN8-20173115201640810305530550
BAKKEN7-201731143513208322828276860

23610, about 1,300 feet to the west of #31068.
  • 23610, 731, CLR, Akron 2-27AH, Banks, t5/13; cum 282K 4/18; 
Recent Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20183028422893183651914486240
BAKKEN3-201831314130632160596354990
BAKKEN2-201828319833982042559951650
BAKKEN1-20183141464187268460815330270
BAKKEN12-201721253019142465328129610
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017177921175445232921250
BAKKEN8-20173119662039104655644948135
BAKKEN7-201731200917101112568252010
BAKKEN6-201730204920441060559551300

Original Post
Another CLR Syracuse well comes off confidential list today:
  • 30168, 2,107, CLR, Syracuse 7-23H, Banks, another huge Banks well for CLR; 140K in first four months, 4 sections; TD = 21,542 feet; 45 stages; 8.1 million lbs, 100-mesh; large/medium sand, plug & perf; t1/18; cum 144K 4/18; 
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830289622857013908806393519445445
BAKKEN3-201831318443186313120650905095914131
BAKKEN2-20182836006358461395061898586353263
BAKKEN1-201830440784406620186753595428721072
BAKKEN12-2017627742492555499304993

The Syracuse / Chicago wells are tracked here, but I have not updated that page in awhile.

Current view of the Syracuse / Chicago well area. Compare with previous screenshots taken earlier at the link above.

The Market, Energy, And Politcal Page, T+2 -- June 6, 2018

Updates

Later, 11:53 a.m. CDT: this remains an open-book test --
  • TSLA: I've often said TSLA was a great trading stock; today TSLA is up $20
  • VLO: with Venezuela unable to fulfill latest contract, I said Valero would be scrambling to buy oil at spot price; and, here we go, VLO is down significantly today
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Original Post

Atmospheric CO2: it appears that after a hiatus of some sort, CO2.earth is now back to posting atmospheric CO2 on a monthly basis. I could be wrong; maybe there was not hiatus and I was just not able to find it. Whatever. During the hiatus (?) I was using Scripps. The May, 2018, data has been posted. Many, many reports that because of slightly increasing atmospheric CO2, the earth is getting much greener. 

Posted: weekly EIA petroleum report.

GDP Now: the June 6th estimate will be out today. The previous estimate -
Latest forecast: 4.8 percent — June 1, 2018: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 1, up from 4.7 percent on May 31.
The nowcasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, after the employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management were released this morning.
Finally, someone does the math:


That looks about right. A wiki source suggests a typical US 18-wheeler tanker holds 9,000 gallons or slightly more than 200 bbls.

Not idle chatter: the note above, about trucks, is not idle chatter. It might also apply to --
  • the Permian for the next year or so
  • Alberta if the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion project does not go through

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+6 -- June 6, 2018

Making America great again: US trade deficit narrows to seven-month low on record exports. And tariffs haven't even begun to kick in yet. What trade war? I'm at my local homeless shelter so I cannot see how CNBC is reporting this. Yes, I know that common sense tells me that once the tariffs kick in, the trade deficit will widen immensely. So, we'll see.

Tariffs: speaking of the "trade war," apparently China has already made some concessions.

Birthday present for the wife, just a suggestion: this is really, really clever. This is the ultimate in customer loyalty. My hunch is that Elon Musk could easily do the same thing -- it would raise a steady stream of cash without a lot of downside. From Bloomberg:
Mercedes-Benz is starting a car-subscription pilot in two U.S. cities, joining brands from Jeep to Porsche in testing alternatives to traditional vehicle ownership.
The app-based service initially available to drivers in Nashville and Philadelphia has three pricing tiers ranging from $1,095 to $2,995 a month.
Subscribers will get access to 30 different models, from C-Class sedans to GLE sport utility vehicles, and can swap cars as often as they like, depending on what tier they choose.
Mercedes is joining a pack of automakers looking to appeal to younger customers by offering access to cars through service more analogous to how Netflix Inc. sells movies or Uber Technologies Inc. dispatches rides. It’s also challenging its biggest German rival head-on: BMW AG launched a subscription pilot -- also in Nashville -- in April that charges as much as $3,700 a month. 
Just last week, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV announced it would launch a servcie starting in 2019 with its Jeep brand.
Autos; this is 100% anecdotal, based on no actual scientific study; and has no "basis in fact," I guess, as they say. But driving around north Texas (Dallas-Ft Worth) two of the most common cars I see: the Nissan Rogue and any number of different Jeep models. Last night when I took our oldest granddaughter to her water polo practice, in a very upscale area, the lot was full of Jeeps, many of which had all their doors removed. I haven't seen many yet with their tops off. I completely missed it, but apparently the 11th annual Jeep's Go Topless Day was May 19th, 2018.

*********************************
Notes For The Granddaughters

Big bang or steady state? A nice review. The post appears to be part of a continuum of posts; from that post,one can move forward to newer articles or backward to older articles. 

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

June 6, 1944: the Normandy invasion -- the largest air, land, and sea invasion in history.

Color me surprised: I was surprised the market wasn't up yesterday. I expected the Dow to move up about a hundred points, so I was surprised to see it flat (to slightly red). Today I see futures suggest the Dow might open up well on the green side. So we'll see.

Color me surprised: I was also surprised that WTI did not move more yesterday on news that Venezuela failed to meet its crude oil contracts, and then had the nerve to threaten a force majeure. The government can call it that if they want, but it doesn't meet "my" criteria.

Color me surprised: I am very, very surprised the number of active rigs in North Dakota has not increased by now. Certainly we've moved into the height of the drilling activity by now, but still the number of active rigs remain at 61. Reminder to newbies: the number of rigs correlates somewhat to the state's overall production but that's not the only reason I follow the rig count. For me, the importance of the rig count is that it reflects the activity in the Bakken.

Bernie Sanders' Marxism: speaking of Venezuela, this is as good a time as any to remind millennials who love Bernie that if they want to see his Marxism in "axtion" take a vacation to Venezuela. The millennials should be reminded that Venezuela sits on the world's largest reserve of oil, way ahead of what Saudi Arabia has.

Apple: shares should move higher again today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Robot: sometimes I think my blog has turned into a vehicle that a well-programmed robot could produce. Same format. Same "stories" being told over and over. I'm sure if Peggy Lee were alive she would ask, "Is that all there is?"

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.28→6/6/201806/06/201706/06/201606/06/201506/06/2014
Active Rigs61522682194

RBN Energy: Permian drilling activity drives diesel demand and projects to supply more of it. And based on what I saw during the Bakken boom it means that truck manufacturers are also being hit with huge demand.
Drilling and completion activity in the Permian Basin doesn’t only produce vast quantities of energy, it consumes a lot of energy too, mostly in the form of diesel fuel to power the trucks, drilling rigs, fracturing pumps, compressors and other equipment needed to keep the oil patch humming. And while refineries within or near the Permian meet a portion of the region’s needs, rising demand for diesel there is spurring the development of new infrastructure — and the repurposing of existing assets — to bring additional fuel into the Permian from refineries along the Gulf Coast. Today, we discuss efforts to move more diesel to the oil fields of West Texas.
Texas consumes far more distillate — most of it ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) — than any other state: an estimated 485 Mb/d (or 20.4 million gallons a day) in 2016, the most recent year that state-by-state statistics are available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That was 82% more than California, and more than triple the distillate consumption of other high-population states like New York, Pennsylvania and Florida. Four-fifths of Texas’s distillate/diesel consumption is by the transportation sector, the vast majority of it by tractor trailers and other trucks that transport everything from petrochemicals to corn chips across the Lone Star State. In the past few years — and especially in the past two or three — diesel consumption has been on the rise in the red-hot Permian Basin in West Texas, and in neighboring counties in southeastern New Mexico. There, diesel is the king of fuels. It powers almost everything: the trucks that haul oilfield equipment, frac sand and water to well sites, the trucks that haul produced water from the lease to disposal wells, and, increasingly in recent months as takeaway pipelines out of the Permian have filled up, the trucks that transport crude oil long distances to downstream pipeline injection points (and sometimes all the way to Corpus Christi and Houston).