Oil Tops $68 For First Time In More Than Three Years -- April 18, 2018

From CNBC:

Weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by 1.1 million bbls; now at 427.6 million bbls
• operable refining capacity: 92.4% (flat, but technically down a bit)
• otherwise, ho-hum
• I no longer track "time to re-balance"; that metric has become irrelevant
• the "old" US crude oil inventory baseline number was 350 million bbls
• the "new" US crude oil inventory baseline number is 400, maybe 420 million bbls

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For The Granddaughters

Well before the 15th century, the Chinese were using the equatorial system for open water navigation. From Gavin Menzies, 1434, page 33:

For the stars, the Chinese had the same system of measurement they used to determine latitude and longitude. This system was called the equatorial system -- vastly simpler than the equinoctial system [Wiki does not have a page for the equinoctial system], used in medieval times which relied on the ecliptic or the horizon. After 1434, Europeans adopted the Chinese system, which remains with us today.

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For The Granddaughters

If there is one part of the world's geography that gives me the most trouble, it is Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.

I was reminded of that while talking to a woman of Asian descent recently (the Tucson wedding).

My wife is Hispanic-Japanese -- her mother was Japanese, born in Japan and emigrated to the United States during the Korean War.

I have always enjoyed trying to recognize the ethnicity of people I meet -- based on any number of criteria. I remarked to this woman that I was was having trouble with her ethnicity, running through about six different Asian possibilities. I failed to mention Filipino. When she said she was Filipino, I was quite taken aback. She did not appear Filipino to me and after after a bit of conversation it turned out that only her mother was Filipino. Her father was not Asian. That explained everything.

She looked more Japanese than Filipino and interestingly, had a connection to Malaysia -- and that's where the blog helped me out immensely.

I know almost nothing about that part of the world (geographically) but because I had been following the route of the Shaden on the blog, I was somewhat familiar with the straits, Malacca, and Singapore. Absolutely fascinating.

Just one more reason why I love to blog and how much it has permeated all aspects of my life.

[I completely missed the next one, but I was working with almost no information. I suggested to the woman next to Ms Filipino above that she looked to be Welsh or Irish -- completely wrong: she was of Lithuanian/Polish background. When we were stationed in Europe, we were struck by how beautiful Polish pottery was -- and, of course, that became the topic of conversation.]

If It's DMI, It's Not Fake News -- April 18, 2018 -- The Middle Kingdom

From realclimatescience.com:

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Notes For The Granddaughters

I'm still in my "China phase." Absolutely fascinating.

From wiki, two items.

First:

Zhōngguó is the most common sinitic name for China in modern times.

The first appearance of 中國 on an artifact was in the Western Zhou on a ritual vessel known as He zun.

It is formed by combining the characters zhōng (中) meaning "central" or "middle", and guó (國/国), representing "state" or "states"; in contemporary usage, "nation".

Prior to the Qin unification of China "Zhongguo" referred to the "Central States"; the connotation was the primacy of a culturally distinct core area, centered on the Yellow River valley, as distinguished from the tribal periphery.

In later periods, however, "Zhongguo" was not used in this sense.

Dynastic names were used for the state in Imperial China and concepts of the state aside from the ruling dynasty were little understood.

Rather, the country was called by the name of the dynasty, such as "Han dynasty" (Hanchao 漢朝), "Tang dynasty" (Tangchao 唐朝), "The Great Ming" (Daming 大明), "The Great Qing" (Daqing 大清), as the case might be. Until the 19th century when the international system came to require a common legal language, there was no need for a fixed or unique name.

Second:

The English translation of "Zhongguo" as the "Middle Kingdom" entered European languages through the Portuguese in the 16th century and became popular in the mid 19th century.

By the mid 20th century the term was thoroughly entrenched in the English language to reflect the Western view of China as the inwards looking Middle Kingdom, or more accurately the Central Kingdom.

Endymion Wilkinson points out that the Chinese were not unique in thinking of their country as central, although China was the only culture to use the concept for their name.

The term Zhongguo was also not commonly used as a name for China until quite recently, nor did it mean the "Middle Kingdom" to the Chinese, or even have the same meaning throughout the course of history.

For our marine biologist, from wiki:

A polynya is an area of open water surrounded by sea ice.

It is now used as geographical term for an area of unfrozen sea within the ice pack.

It is a loanword from Russian: полынья (polynya) Russian pronunciation: [pəɫɨˈnʲja], which refers to a natural ice hole, and was adopted in the 19th century by polar explorers to describe navigable portions of the sea.

In past decades, for example, some polynyas, such as the Weddell Polynya, have lasted over multiple winters (1974–1976).

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Remembering People's Names

There are various tricks for remembering people's names. Of course, the first "trick" is to determine immediately if someone/someone's name is "worth" remembering.

I was reminded of that yesterday. I ran into an individual I met for the first time some weeks ago while standing in line at some Texas bar-be-cue. I really enjoyed the conversation. I don't recall if we exchanged names, probably thinking this a chance meeting, unique, that would not happen again.

Well, it did. I happened to see him at the same bar-be-cue yesterday. Groundhog day, I guess. I had a great time talking about my quick trip to Tucson. We exchanged names. This time I won't forget. Pro-fat. Prophet. Eli.

More than 20 years ago I met an Air Force officer that I thought might someday be important for me to know/remember -- someone who might affect my Air Force career. I've never forgotten his name. His name: Colonel Waddell. My "reminder"? Duck. I even, to this day, remember where I met him. Our paths never crossed again after that.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+49 -- April 18, 2018

UNP: jumps 2%. Follows earnings report for CSX yesterday.

Disclaimer: yada, yada, yada. Bottom line -- this is not an investment site.

Aluminum:

PLM: up almost 3%. Nickel surging.

WTI: might we see $68 today?

• $40 WTI: Bakken operators iffy
• $50 WTI: Bakken operators survive
• $60 WTI: Bakken operators thrive
• $70 WTI: Bakken operators ...

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For The Record

After a 2,022-mile round trip Tucson, AZ - Grapevine, TX, in an Enterprise Rent-A-Car Toyota Corolla LE (2018), one observation: without question, my 2012 (bought in December, 2011) Honda Civic is a much, much nicer automobile for my needs.  My Honda Civic gets significantly better mileage; my Honda Civic seems much more "solid," certainly quieter; my Honda Civic seems to be much more responsive. The dash and controls on the Honda Civic are much nicer. The "stick" for cruise control on the Toyota Corolla simply seemed weird.

• 2018 Toyota Corolla LE, starting: $19,345
• 2018 Honda Civic, starting:$18,840

Huge Jump In WTI Pricing -- April 18, 2018

Getting real: Australia's Northern Territory scraps fracking ban. I'm starting to like Irina Slav's reporting.

Double whammy: KMI's Trans Mountain pipeline on hold; Alberta depends on CBR. Now, Bloomberg is reporting a rail strike over at Canadian Pacific Railway is possible.

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Back to the Bakken 

Where Fracking Is Always in Fashion

 
Active rigs:

$67.76↑↑	4/18/2018	04/18/2017	04/18/2016	04/18/2015	04/18/2014
Active Rigs	59	51	29	93	188

RBN Energy: the impact of pipeline constraints and apportionment on Permian producers and differentials, part 3.

Well, This Is Awkward -- Mainstream Media Has Not Reported The Southwest Pilot Story -- Saved A Disabled Plane -- April 18, 2018

Identity of Southwest Airlines pilot not being reported for some reason.

Also awkward: Arctic sea ice volume surges 3 trillion cubic meters since early March. Also note being reported. Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Also awkward: Starbucks incident -- racial. Customers identified over and over by mainstream media as African-American. No mention of ethnic background of the manager at Starbucks that asked the customers to leave. Had the manager been "white," this would have been all over the news. The manager was a female; we do know that. But race? Not reported. Impossible to find.

Really awkward: last year, Greenland had their fifth largest surface ice mass gain on record, gaining nearly 600 billion tons of ice.