Indecision Delays IPO Launch -- January 28, 2018

From The Wall Street Journal: the Aramco IPO s stalled by indecision over where to list. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil producer continues to weigh risks of listing in New York, London, Hong Kong or locally.

Most likely it's due to all those "transparency" rules over at the NYSE.

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The Road To New England

Updates

February 2, 2018: New Hampshire site evaluation committee votes unanimously to deny the "right-of-way."

Original Note

 
A reader sent me this note:

• executive summary, in a couple of weeks, a crucial decision will be made by small, New Hampshire board (Site Election Committee)  on whether or not to allow Northern Pass transmission line to be built through state
• the 1,000 Mw - to be sourced by Quebec Hydro - was chosen days ago by Massachusetts to be supplier to fulfill "renewable' mandates
• problem? not yet built nor even approved. And the approval is far from certain as ALL the juice will be sent on power lines despoiling NH mountainsides for Mass' consumption
• if the line is approved, court fights will immediately ensue
• if the line is approved, it will be a near miracle to be in service late 2020, a full year AFTER Pilgrim nuke is retired
• Bottom line is NE is entering 'interesting' times.

So, there are two problems here:

• decision yet to be made; tea leaves not particularly helpful; in New England many decisions on energy seem capricious
• at least a year, maybe more, for a huge energy gap

Map and story here, final vote delayed until March 30, 2018, so we'll see in a couple of months. 

Background, from UtilityDive:

• Massachusetts chose the Northern Pass transmission project to supply 9,450,000 MWh of renewable energy annually to the state's utilities to meet goals established in the Global Warming Solutions Act passed two years ago.
• Northern Pass, owned by Eversource Energy, is developing a 192-mile transmission line that would move power from Hydro-Quebec dams in Canada to a substation in Deerfield, N.H. Northern Pass will provide up to 9.4 TWh of hydropower annually, while also reducing  wholesale energy costs, project backers say.
• The transmission line will begin at the Canadian border in Pittsburg, N.H., and will extend 192 miles to the point where it connects to the New England electric grid. Sections of the line will also be buried along roadways to reduce the impact of views around the White Mountain National Forest. Contract negotiations are expected to be completed by March 27 and sent to regulators by April 25 for review, according to the state's timeline.

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The Road To California

The California PUC suggests the natural gas crisis is so acute that utilities should place a moratorium on new natural gas hook-ups for commercial and industrial customers. Wow, this will encourage new commercial and industrial customers to relocate and/or expand in California. By the way, look at the trend in the cost of energy in southern California.

WPX Reunion Bay Wells -- Random Note -- January 28, 2018

WPX in Fort Berthold Indian Reservation has quite an interesting history.

WPX is now reporting some incredible wells.

From my "FAQ" page with regard to record IPs:

• 33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, huge well; if this is not a typo, could be a new record: 85,032 bbls in the first full month, Three Forks, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs; t9/17; cum 167K 11/17;
  

Now, this WPX well to be reported later this week:

This will be a fun well to watch this week, posted January 28, 2018:

• 33381, conf, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HW, Reunion Bay, API 33-061-04011, a huge well; 75K in first full month; 65K in second full month; FracFocus shows this well was fracked 9/15 - 22/2018; 8.7 million gallons of water; proppant, 9.95%
• 8.7 million gallons = 72 860 973.755 lbs
• 89.6% of what = 72 860 973.755 lbs; 81,318,051 lbs
• 9.95% x 81,318,051 lbs = 8,091,146 lbs
• so, we'll see when the NDIC data is reported whether proppant was about 8 million lbs

Production data:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2017	65327	37613
10-2017	75779	17539
9-2017	101

The WPX Mandan Wells In Reunion Bay

This will be a fun well to watch this week, posted January 28, 2018:

• 33381, 3,433, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HW, Reunion Bay, API 33-061-04011, a huge well, t10/17; cum 366K 12/18;; 75K in first full month; 65K in second full month; FracFocus shows this well was fracked 9/15 - 22/2018; 8.7 million gallons of water; proppant, 9.95%
• 8.7 million gallons = 72 860 973.755 lbs
• 89.6% of what = 72 860 973.755 lbs; 81,318,051 lbs
• 9.95% x 81,318,051 lbs = 8,091,146 lbs
• so, we'll see when the NDIC data is reported whether proppant was about 8 million lbs

Production data:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2017	65327	37613
10-2017	75779	17539
9-2017	101	0

It looks like the Mandan wells will be directional to the south and then the horizontals will swing west (left) and parallel, an earlier Mandan well:

• 19896, PA/273, WPX, Mandan 13-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 133K 11/17; has never been a good well; best month, following initial frack, was less than 10K/month; time will tell if neighboring fracks affected this well;

The graphic:

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 28, 2018

Friday, February 2,  2018:
30578, 1,188, CLR, Wiley 6-25H1, Pershing, 4 sections, Three Forks B1, 55 stages; 8.9 million lbs, t8/17; cum 120K 12/17;

Thursday, February 1, 2018:
33381, 3,433, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HW, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 51 stages, 8.6 million lbs, a huge well; 75K in first full month; 65K in second full month; t10/17; cum 186K 11/17; 
32768, 1,065, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 2B, North Tobacco Garden, 50 stages; 1 million lbs (sic), mesh/large/ceramic, t8/17; cum 110K 11/17;
31415, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-7, Alkali Creek, no production data,
31083, 1,305, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-9H, McGregory Buttes, t8/17; cum 67K 11/17;
29719, 382, Nine Point Energy, Anderson 148-100-7-6-3H, Buffalo Wallow, 31 stages, 4.3 million lbs; mesh/large/small, t9/17; cum 39K 11/17; 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018:
33541, SI/NC, BR, Outlaw Gap 14-23TH-A, Sand Creek, no production data,
32901, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Makowsky 6-31-30-158N-99W, Ellisville, no production
32577, 2,051, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 5-19H, Elm Tree, 47K first full month, 61 stages, 14.8 million lbs, mesh/large; t11/17; cum 84K 12/17;
31644, 1,126, Oasis, Lawlar N Federal 5199 44-23 11BX, North Tobacco Garden, 50 stages, 10.1 million lbs, mesh/large/ceramic, t8/17; cum 88K 11/17;
31414, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-8, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Tuesday, January 30, 2018:
33555, SI/NC, BR, Gladstone 1-1-25MBH A, Sand Creek, no production data,
33540, SI/NC, BR, outlaw Wagon 14-23MBH-ULW-A, Sand Creek, no production data,
32355, 1,217, CLR, Hereford Federal 6-20H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks 1, 61 stages; 15.5 million lbs, mesh, large, small; t8/17; cum 111K 11/17;
31413, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-9, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Monday, January 29, 2018: 71 wells for the quarter; 71 wells for the year
33554, SI/NC, BR, Gladstone 2-1-25TFH A, Sand Creek, no production data,
32769, 869, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 3T, North Tobacco Garden, Three Forks, 50 stages; 4 million lbs, mesh, large, small, t8/17; cum 72K 11/17;
32088, 787, Whiting, Fladeland 13-27H, Sanish, 42 stages; 9.7 million lbs; large and small-to-very small, t9/17; cum 39K 11/17;
31643, 960, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 44-23 10T, North Tobacco Garden, Three Forks, 50 stages; 4.7 million lbs, mesh, large, and ceramic large, t8/17; cum 88K 11/17;
31472, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Makowsky 3-31-30-158N-99W, Ellisville, no production data;

Sunday, January 28, 2018: 66 wells for the quarter; 66 wells for the year
31855, 735, Whiting, McNamara 42-26-3XH, Sanish, 45 stages; 10.5 million lbs, large, small, very small; t9/17; cum 59K 11/17;
31847, 1,515, CLR, Bridger 9-14H1, Rattlesnake Point, a very nice well; 33K in first month of full production, Three Forks 1, 40 stages; 15 million lbs; t8/17; cum 77K 11/17;
31412, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Saturday, January 27, 2018: 63 wells for the quarter; 63 wells for the year
33553, SI/NC, BR, Gladstone 3-1-25MBH A, Sand Creek, no production data,
32900, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Makowskky 7-31-30-158N-99W TFH, Ellisville, no production data;

Targa Resources In The Bakken

In light of the recent announcement regarding a joint venture with Hess, it's a good time to get acquainted with Targa, a name I am very familiar with but do not know much about.

Most recent presentation dated January 23, 2018. Most of the slide presentation is devoted to the Permian; 80% of Targa's activity is related to the Permian.

There is one slide touching on the Bakken.

Note the three NG processing plants, Little Missouri I, II, and III.

If I read the graphic correctly, the capacity of these three plants is 90 million cf/d; apparently the plants reported a gross plant inlet of 61 million cf/d in 3Q17.

If I am reading the graphic correctly, Little Missouri IV will drawf these smaller plants, projected to come in at 200 million cf/d. It will also be the third or fourth largest plant in North Dakota as projected out to 2020.

Back on April 16, 2015, it was announced that Targa had planned to expand its "Badlands" project to four plants, projecting the expansion to cost $140 million. One assumes this is that project but now a joint venture with Hess at $150 million. I see both "Badlands" and "Little Missouri I - IV" being used. It's possible the entire complex is referred to as the "Badlands" complex with each plant a Little Missouri plant. I could be wrong.

History of Little Missouri I - III at this link.

Little Missouri trains I and II are straight refrigeration plants and Little Missouri III is a cryo plant (source, footnote 4).

From a reader regarding the new plant:

It's not in the corporate interest for OneOK to pay for an ethane separtion system in the Bakken as they have ones further south with pipelines there.

Targa doesn't have the capability and needs one and has deeper pockets. Hess Midstream is needed as part of it because Hess holds a big card with an ethane pipeline right now to Alberta.

That pipeline will be converted to propane and an ethane cracker would have sufficient feed if Targa and Hess build an ethane separation unit. The location is almost smack dab in the middle, so pipelines interconnecting those nat gas plants would be minimal.

OneOK will still need its NGL pipelines carrying C4 and greater. Don't think Hess and Targa would be working together unless something bigger is in planning.