Thursday, January 25, 2018

The Market And Energy Page, Part 3, T+4 -- January 25, 2018

I"ll get back to the Bakken, energy, and market in a few minutes, but let's start with this screen shot:


Okay, back to the Bakken, energy, and markets.

Disclaimer: Again, remember: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here or anything that you were told by someone who said they read something on this site.

Wow, today has been so busy, all I can do, is link the article and then perhaps come back to it later.

So here goes.

The new Baker Hughes: developing its own identity. From The Houston Chronicle:
Baker Hughes said Wednesday that it narrowed its fourth quarter loss to $29 million from $104 million in the third quarter -- its first three months as a merged company.
Baker Hughes revenues, however, fell shy of the $5.9 billion generated by Halliburton as the Houston rivals compete to be world's second largest energy services company after Schulmberger, which has one of its four principal offices in Houston.
These guys are nuts: over at Bloomberg, the "dark side of American rise to oil superpower." I can only assume that Javier Blas is a pseudonym for Andrew Ross Sorkin. Even Andrew Ross Sorkin (who has probably named his first son Andrew Ross Sorkin II) wouldn't want to be associated with this article. One almost wonders if we will see it re-printed in The Economist.

How's the blog doing? Glad you asked:


Buckeled. From The Financial Post, Canadian oil prices buckle after railway refuses to be "swing shipper." Premier (don't you just love the word, "premier" -- slightly higher in the pecking order than "president" -- wasn't Mr Krushchev the "premier of the USSR? -- but I digress -- does anyone under the age of 25 know his first name -- no, it was not Putin) Trudeau is in deep trouble. His lackadaisical attitude toward his country's energy sector (about the only think the country has going for it, except recently opened borders) has resulted in CAVE dwellers stopping economic progress:
With new pipelines at least three years away, transportation capacity is so tight in Canada’s oil industry that every twitch in the system appears to be blowing out the discount. 
World oil prices are recovering, but Western Canadian oil prices are falling back to depressed conditions, the result of transportation capacity so tight every twitch in the system appears to be blowing out the discount.
Western Canadian Select (WSC), the Canadian benchmark, was changing hands for $33.57 a barrel Tuesday, after losing about $8 in two days, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading for US$64.75, up US$1.35 over the same period.
The latest scare to push down Canadian oil prices came from Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. late last week, which said it has no interest in carrying big quantities of Western Canadian oil while producers wait for pipelines to get built.
“We understand crude is only going to be here for a limited period of time,” CP Rail CEO Keith Creel said to analysts in a conference call Thursday to discuss fourth quarter results. “We are looking for strategic partners with long-term objectives that allows us to have a more stable book of business.”
The railway expects its crude volumes to increase this year, to 60,000 carloads from 48,000 in 2017, but Creel said space would go to those who “appreciate that capacity” and CP will not allow itself to be “commoditized.”
We've talked about this so often I'm not going to say anything else. For now. Except to say this: very cheap heavy oil from Canada is going to replace heavy oil from Venezuela for US refineries optimized for heavy oil.

Buckeled. Tesla ... from CNBC/SeekingAlpha -- let's just put a bunch of phrases together and see if you can put together a coherent story. It shouldn't be too difficult:
  • Model 3
  • delays
  • worsen
  • shares fall 2%
  • when does SEC get involved?
  • Nevada gigafactory problems worse than "owner" previously owned up to
  • factory resorting to having some batteries made by hand
  • comments suggest that this is a fake CNBC news story 
  • here's the CNBC link
    • employees also said that quality control workers were not experienced, and two said that some batteries are leaving the factory with a potentially serious defect, a claim that Tesla vigorously denies.
  • other comments, probably not accurate
    • looking at bringing in donkeys from Mexico to help move raw components to where they are needed (probably not accurate; easier to bring in day laborers)
    • borrowing scores of workers from suppliers to assist with manual assembly (okay, that's probably accurate)
  • the comments are the best part of this story, or should we say, debacle
  • gigafactory..gigglefactory...bespoke factory
    • prospective owners can order hand-made batteries lined with custom redwood and leather packagine
The year of the fracker. In China, it's the year of the dog. From The Houston Chronicle:
Oil companies are on track to produce a record 10 million barrels of American crude a day, a milestone that could be reached as soon as February largely due to another record that is expected to fall in coming months.
By the end of the year, fracking intensity is projected to exceed levels reached in 2014 - the height of the so-called shale revolution - as hydraulic fracturing operations use more sand, more water and more pumping horsepower than ever before to free oil and gas from shale rock.
The result: U.S. crude production should reach an all-time high with just half the number of drilling rigs used at the peak of the last energy boom.
Welcome to the year of the fracker. The controversial technology that transformed the U.S. energy industry and reshaped global oil markets has advanced to a new level, becoming more science than art as fracking operations run round the clock, target ever smaller sections of wells with greater precision and greater force, and squeeze more oil out of every well.
"It never stops," said David Adams, senior vice president for completions and production for Halliburton of Houston. "We're pushing the limits."
To infinity and beyond.


The Market And Energy Page, Part 2, T+4 -- January 25, 2018

Dow: off to another screaming start -- up 161 points. After the interviews coming out of Davos yesterday, I was surprised the market dropped so low earlier this morning, and I am surprised it is not even higher now.
  • new highs: 179, including BAC; BAX; CRC (OXY in CA); DE; EOG; EW; RDS-B; STO;
  • new lows: 44
  • most exciting: RDS-B, EOG,
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship-related decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here or what your investment advisor says she read here.

The Political Page, T+4 -- January 25, 2018

I can't post the link here; it will be blocked but this op-ed piece is too important not to be archived.

From Marc:
The government shutdown is over. Democrats finally realized that closing the government over illegal immigration was a losing political battle. They created a needless crisis and got rolled. So who is to blame for their current predicament? Along with Charles E. Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, Democrats can put the blame squarely on the man who could have legalized the “dreamers” when he had the chance: Barack Obama.

During his 2008 campaign, Obama promised in a conversation with Univision anchor Jorge Ramos to make passing immigration reform one of his first legislative priorities, and even set a timetable. “I cannot guarantee that it is going to be in the first 100 days,” he said. “But what I can guarantee is that we will have in the first year an immigration bill that I strongly support and that I’m promoting. And I want to move that forward as quickly as possible.”

If he had wanted to act, he could have. Obama’s party controlled the House, and Democrats had a 60-vote filibuster-proof Senate majority. If Obama really wanted to pass either the Dream Act or comprehensive immigration reform, Republicans were powerless to stop him. But he didn’t do it.

Of course, Obama was not alone in failing to act. Who was in charge of the issue on Capitol Hill? On the Senate side, none other than Schumer (D-N.Y.). In 2009, Schumer succeeded Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) as chairman of the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on immigration. In that role, the New York Times reported, “Mr. Schumer would take the point in pushing for passage of a new bill.” But Schumer didn’t push. Neither did Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was speaker of the House at the time and had the power to bring immigration legislation to the floor at will. And Obama also did not push because, according to the Times, the president “does not intend to get out in front of any proposal until there is a strong bipartisan commitment to pass it.” Funny, he did not wait for a “strong bipartisan commitment” before pushing ObamaCare. But apparently immigration was not a priority. 
Much more at the story. Marc misses the big point.

The "headline" of that piece was that the Democrats "got rolled this past week." That is true.

But worse, or more accurate, was that the dreamers and Democratic donors got rolled.

There are three main cash cows for the Democrats:
  • global warming
  • fossil fuel (fracking, pipelines, CBR)
  • immigration (dreamers, the wall)
The Democrats don't want to move on any of these issues. These "cash cows" are simply too big for anyone in the Democratic Party to lose.

The GOP has their cash cows, also, but I will let others opine on that. 

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Notes To The Granddaughters

"Black Panther" on its way to a heroic $100 - $120  million US debut.

Yesterday at Barnes and Nobles, as Sophia refers to it, Sophia saw a graphic cartoon book of the "Black Panther." This was the first time I had ever seen that particular graphic novel, and it was the only one of a dozen or so that caught Sophia's attention. She asked who the "Black Panther" was, absolutely mesmerized by the heroic stance and the muscular character staring back at her from the cover of the book. I explained to her who the Black Panther was.

Her reply: "That's my dad!"

By the way, Sophia's mom bought her a new CD the other day. Her mother was getting tired of listening to a Taylor Swift CD that Sophia was playing over and over and over.

So, her mother got her a new Taylor Swift CD. She gave it to Sophia still in the plastic bag and as soon as she opened it, she squealed with delight, "It's Taylor" and then kissed the CD. Remember, Sophia will not turn four years old until later this summer. 

She easily "operates" an iPhone, an iPad, and my MacBook Air. On the iPad she has found my e-books and yesterday was paging through Winnie the Pooh.



Random Note Regarding MRO Activity In Big Bend -- January 25, 2018

This page will not be updated. This information is being tracked elsewhere. But I am posting it here as a stand-alone since there may be some readers interested in activity in this area. Posted elsewhere and re-posting here:
Updates

January 25, 2018: there seems to be some activity in this general area. Several wells have come off-line; at least one has shown a very slight bump in production, probably due to recently fracked well. Wells to watch: 
  • 24011, 1,092, MRO, Cummings 44-31TFH, Big Bend; t8/13; cum 219K 11/17; off-line 6/17 - 8/17; off-line much of the time between 9/17 and 11/17;
  • 18114, 850, MRO, Wadholm 41-30H, Reunion Bay, t8/09; cum 416K 11/17; off-line as of 10/17 and still off-line all of 11/17;
  • 20403, 1,391, Slawson, Jaguar 2-32H, Big Bend, t7/11; cum 335K 11/7; off-line for almost all of 10/17 and half of 11/17; 
Original Post
 
Back on September 19, 2017, I suggested we might see some activity in the MRO Wadholm, Reunion Bay, area. In fact, MRO now reports the results of a recently fracked well in that area with a jump in production of a neighboring, older well.

Link here.

The well recently fracked:
  • 31476, 2,613, MRO, Moline 14-32H, Big Bend, 45 stages, 6.5 million lbs, t8/17; cum 99K 11/17;
No comments: Links to this post

WTI Holds Solidly Above $66 --- January 25, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decisions based on what you read here or what you think you read here or what your neighbor told you that she read here.

Shell: Royal Dutch Shell is set to surpass US rival Exxon for the first time this century. What changed? The CEO saw an opportunity, took a huge risk:
It’s the $53 billion BG deal that’s really made a difference. When oil’s crash started in the middle of 2014, just months into Van Beurden’s tenure as Shell’s boss, he saw an opportunity. BG’s oil projects in Brazil and gas in Australia were just starting up, easing uncertainty on future growth. Rumored for years to be a suitor, van Beurden finally made the move for the British company.
The deal immediately put Shell in an exclusive club with Exxon, placing it on a plane above its European rivals Total SA and BP Plc. Some use the phrase ultra-major to differentiate the industry’s big two from the pack – at least until Saudi Aramco’s giant IPO, slated for the end of this year.
Mark Papa: a reader sent me this link earlier today, it's from November, 2017. I know I talked about Mark Papa's remarks at the time but failed to link that presentation at the sidebar at the right. It will be interesting to see how Papa's prognostications turn out five years from now. After re-reading the Papa's remarks, I replied to the reader who sent me the link (the link will most likely show up as a pdf on desktop), but not ready for prime time:
It will be interesting to look back on this presentation in five years. I think if price is right, the Bakken will surprise, and the Permian will really surprise. I agree that GoM will "come back."

Eagle Ford will do well but not as great as originally hoped/hyped.

SCOOP/STACK great for a few operators but agree that it is a rounding error.

What is not mentioned are all the other shale plays that could yet see life.

I need to link this at the sidebar at the blog so we can look at it again in five years. It will be interesting to see what percent of US crude oil is provided by shale in five years. I don't think Mark Papa suggested a percent where he thought shale would be five years from now. 
For the record, the EIA says US shale oil accounted for 48% of total US crude oil production in 2016. My feelings: if US shale oil continues to account for more than 40% of total US crude oil production five years from now, Mark Papa was off a bit in his remarks; if US shale oil trends higher than 48% over the next five years, Mark Papa was way off on his comments. Below 40% and Mark Papa was right on target.
Jobs: the jobs data last week was incredible. record plunge in first time claims. Claims drop 4x greater than forecast. That was last week. Today, the expected "rebound" but still less than forecast.
  • forecast: 240,000
  • actual: 233,000
Cold: Tokyo.
  • the coldest in 48 years
  • weather agency has issued a low temperature warning for Tokyo for the first time in 33 years
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.28↑↑1/25/201801/25/201701/25/201601/25/201501/25/2014
Active Rigs563848157187

RBN Energy: when will the Permian need new gas takeaway capacity?