- daily production increased 11% sequentially to average 15,321 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, for a total of 1,409,501 Boe
- 3.6 net wells were added to production during the third quarter and wells in process ended the quarter at 18.0 net wells, the highest level since 2014
- Northern now expects average daily production for 2017 to increase between 5% - 6% compared to 2016 and expects to add approximately 14.0 net wells to production for the year
- Northern closed a new credit facility on November 1st that provides liquidity of approximately $235 million , comprised of $135 million of cash on hand and $100 million of delayed draw term loan availability
- Northern's GAAP net loss for the third quarter of 2017 was $16.1 million . Adjusted net income for the quarter was $2.2 million . Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $35.7 million
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
NOG's 3Q17 Earnings
From the company's press release:
The Market And Energy Page, T+291; COP For Investors -- November 8, 2017
COP: COP/CEO was just on CNBC. Had I missed it, I would not have missed anything. This is as good as the interview for those interested in COP:
Market: looks like all three indices could hit another record high today.
- says committed to returns-focused strategy regardless of commodity price improvement
- says plans to exceed original oil production forecast despite capital budget cut
- says no water-borne oil exports from United States in third quarter
- says 'quite possible' might see quarterly distribution from Australia Pacific LNG joint venture in fourth quarter
- says does plan to start cutting stake in Cenovus Energy Inc after lock-up period ends in November
- says currently producing more than 30,000 barrels/day of oil in Libya
- says all gas from Australia Pacific LNG that's not sold domestically is under long-term contracts to customers in China and Japan
- says some Australia Pacific LNG customers exercised right to not take up to 10 percent of contracted cargos, making some LNG available for spot sale in 2018 Source text
Market: looks like all three indices could hit another record high today.
- NYSE, new highs -- 110, including: Boeing; COP (whoo-hoo); DR Horton; Marathon Petroleum (MPC); McDonald's; Pembina Pipeline (again); Walmart
- new lows: 79
How The DAPL Affects One Bakken Producer -- November 8, 2017; Huge Refining Season In Store For US This Winter?
Take a look at these two posts again:
In its earnings call today (per Don, thank you), Oasis says DAPL has saved $2/bbl in transportation costs.
Production: Oasis says it is producing around 72,000 boepd.
Savings that drop directly to the bottom line due to the DAPL (some numbers rounded):
The two-year Native American delay in completion of this pipeline could have cost Oasis as much as $100 million. And that's just the tip of the iceberg -- how much that meaningless protest cost.
In its earnings call today (per Don, thank you), Oasis says DAPL has saved $2/bbl in transportation costs.
Production: Oasis says it is producing around 72,000 boepd.
Savings that drop directly to the bottom line due to the DAPL (some numbers rounded):
- $2 / bbl * 72,000 boepd = $150,000 / day
- 30 days * $150,000/day = $4.5 million / month = $50 million / year
The two-year Native American delay in completion of this pipeline could have cost Oasis as much as $100 million. And that's just the tip of the iceberg -- how much that meaningless protest cost.
***********************************
John Kemp May Be Unto Something Here -- Great Observation
US Crude Oil Inventories Increased -- Oh, Oh -- The Red Queen Has Not Fallen Off Her Treadmill -- November 8, 2017
US crude oil inventory: has been released. Oh-oh. The numbers: +2.2, -3.3, and +9.6. Oh-oh. WTI: $56.60 -- dropped about 60 cents after report released.
CNBC is reporting that -- surprise, surprise, surprise --
From the report (linked above), in addition to numbers above:
CNBC is reporting that -- surprise, surprise, surprise --
- US crude oil inventories surprisingly increased by 2.2 million bbls; now at 457.1 million bbls
- US gasoline inventories dropped 3.3 million bbls; and,
- US produced a record 9.6 million bopd -- the Red Queen has not fallen off her treadmill
- refinery inputs up almost 300,000 bopd, but still operating below 90% capacity (89.6%)
- gasoline production actually decreased last week; averaging 10.2 million bbls/day
- distillate fuel increased last week; averaging 5.2 million bbls/day
- crude oil imports averaging slightly more than last year
- US operators are targeting $27-oil as their breakeven point
- with Brent oil at $64 and narrowing WTI-Brent spread, operators are hedging their oil (probably putting their floor at $56 - transportation costs)
- no indication that crude oil demand will decrease over the short term
- OPEC extends cuts; has been losing market share in Asia
- even CLR has announced first shipment of Bakken oil to Pacific
- US infrastructure in place
Week
|
Date
|
Drawdown
|
Storage
|
Weeks to RB
|
Week 0
|
Apr 26, 2017
|
529.0
|
180
|
|
Week 1
|
May 3, 2017
|
0.9
|
528.0
|
198
|
Week 2
|
May 10, 2017
|
6
|
522.0
|
50
|
Week 3
|
May 17, 2017
|
1.8
|
520.2
|
59
|
Week 4
|
May 24, 2017
|
4.4
|
515.8
|
51
|
Week 5
|
May 31, 2017
|
6.4
|
509.9
|
41
|
Week 6
|
June 7, 2017
|
-3.3
|
513.2
|
60
|
Week 7
|
June 14, 2017
|
1.7
|
511.5
|
57
|
Week 8
|
June 21, 2017
|
2.5
|
509.0
|
62
|
Week 9
|
June 28, 2017
|
-0.2
|
509.2
|
71
|
Week 10
|
July 6, 2017
|
6.3
|
502.9
|
58
|
Week 11
|
July 12, 2017
|
7.6
|
495.3
|
47
|
Week 12
|
July 19, 2017
|
4.7
|
490.6
|
43
|
Week 13
|
July 26, 2017
|
7.2
|
483.4
|
38
|
Week 14
|
August 2, 2017
|
1.5
|
481.9
|
51
|
Week 15
|
August 9, 2017
|
6.5
|
475.4
|
35
|
Week 16
|
August 16, 2017
|
8.9
|
466.5
|
30
|
Week 17
|
August 23, 2017
|
3.3
|
463.2
|
29
|
Week 18
|
August 30, 2017
|
5.4
|
457.8
|
27
|
Week 19
|
September 7, 2017
|
-4.6
|
462.4
|
32
|
Week 20
|
September 13, 2017
|
-5.9
|
468.2
|
39
|
Week 21
|
September 20, 2017
|
-4.6
|
472.8
|
46
|
Week 22
|
September 27, 2017
|
1.8
|
471.0
|
46
|
Week 23
|
October 4, 2017
|
6.0
|
465.0
|
41
|
Week 24
|
October 12, 2017
|
2.8
|
462.2
|
40
|
Week 25
|
October 18, 2017
|
5.7
|
456.5
|
37
|
Week 26
|
October 25, 2017
|
-0.9
|
457.3
|
39
|
Week 27
|
November 1, 2017
|
2.4
|
454.9
|
38
|
Week 28
|
November 8, 2017
|
-2.2
|
457.1
|
42
|
Three High-Intensity Fracked Wells Reported -- Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Released: US crude oil inventory; released at 9:30 a.m. Central Time. Uh-oh. The numbers: +2.2, -3.3, and +9.6. Oh-oh. WTI: $56.46. See this post, now that report has been released.
High-intensity frack wells reported today:
Active rigs:
RBN Energy: E&P leverage stable despite price volatility.
OPEC cuts / compliance, from Platts via Twitter:
High-intensity frack wells reported today:
- 33490, 839, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 4H, Squires, 50 stages, 15 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 25 days;
- 33488, 845, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 2H, Squires, 50 stages, 15.4 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 23 days; producing,
- 32599, 2,386, WPX, Ruby Parshall, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 61 stages, 20 million lbs, t9/17; cum 22K over 21 days;
Active rigs:
| $57.07→ | 11/8/2017 | 11/08/2016 | 11/08/2015 | 11/08/2014 | 11/08/2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 54 | 38 | 64 | 193 | 182 |
RBN Energy: E&P leverage stable despite price volatility.
Earlier this year, we conducted an in-depth analysis of these same 43 E&Ps in our market study. We found that E&Ps displayed a new and welcome discipline in response to the oil price plunge in late 2014 through mid-2016. As a result, they emerged from the crisis in a remarkably solid financial position. As we explained in subsequent blogs, our universe of E&Ps generated $9 billion in profits in the first quarter of 2017 after more than $160 billion in losses in 2015-2016.
With prices recovering, they boosted their 2017 capital budgets by 40% after slashing spending by 70% over the previous two years. However, in early March 2017, oil prices started falling again and subsequently seesawed higher and lower until the price for benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finally hit its 2017 low of about $43/bbl in June. Profits and cash flows dipped in the second quarter, although the industry remained in the black. Despite the price volatility, producers decided to maintain their accelerated budgets. We thought it would be a good idea to revisit the balance sheets of the 43 E&Ps to see if any of these companies have been eroding their financial positions.US crude futures trading soaring past Brent as shale drillers hedge future output. From Reuters. Huge story which will aggravate Saudi's goal to achieve $70 oil.
OPEC cuts / compliance, from Platts via Twitter:
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