Sunday, September 24, 2017

Making Pancakes With Sophia -- September 24, 2017

Preparation:

Hand mixing:


Using a mixer:


Mashing a banana for Arianna's pancakes:


Adding chocolate chips for Olivia's pancakes:


Pancakes on the griddle:


Taking pancakes off the griddle:



All the pancakes, chocolate chip for Olivia; banana for Arianna:

Posted by at
Labels:

The Political Page, T+247 -- September 24, 2017

We will get to politics in a minute but first a word about Texas high school football -- where coaches don't take a knee when the national anthem is played.  From The Star-Telegra Northeast: it pays to be in Texas, home of the $98,668 high school football coach. Some data points:
  • 2017 Texas high school football season opener -- first time that the University Interscholastic League (UIL) allowed live broadcasts of Friday night games
  • Lake Travis High School: sixth state title in 2016; in 2011 they became the first team in history of Texas high school football to win five consecutive state championships
  • currently, the coach: Hank Carter
  • Carter is the highest-paid high school football coach in Texas: annual salary of $155,156
  • $30,000 more than the principal at the same school; triple the average salary of the school's teachers
  • median household income in his district: $103,000; million-dollar homes dot the shores of Lake Travis
  • Texas has no limit on what Texas high school football coaches can be paid, as long as school boards vote to approve contracts set by administrators
  • Katy, TX: home of Morton Ranch High School and home of a new $72 million stadium; Katy Tigers are eight-time state champions; the coach is paid $133,102.
  • statewide, the average for football coaches: $98,668
  • statewide, the average teacher's salary: $55,221
  • statewide, the average salary for principals in the large schools: $117,744
  • DFW-area suburbs: some of the highest paid coaches in the state, $106,619
  • down the road from us, Bedford: $110,000
  • reason: supply and demand
  • at a typical school, there are 40,000 applications from those who want to become a 3rd-grade teacher
  • hard to find a winning coach
  • most coaches wear two hats: the other -- athletic director
******************************************
The Political Page 

Takeaway: after seeing the scenes from NFL's opening national anthems today -- for the players, coaches, and owners, "it's all about me. Screw the veterans." One brave Pittsburgh Steeler stood for the veterans.

But a sad day for America! Owners, coaches, multi-millionaire athletes who got a free ride and a college scholarship all agree that the national anthem is not worth respecting. And millionaire owners taking the side of those who disrespect the national anthem. It's important to remember, President Trump did not start this. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


Sunday night football. I don't recall ever purposefully turning to another channel when the SNF opening came on, but tonight I did. I'll catch the game later on, but not interested in the opening segment.

Hardball. Undermining ObamaCaare. Death by a thousand cuts. Administration will take down Healthcare.gov on some hours during enrollment period. LOL. Administration says the Obamacare enrollment site will be down for "maintenance." LOL.
The Trump administration plans to shut down healthcare.gov, a website consumers use to sign up for the Affordable Care Act, for 12 hours on nearly every Sunday of the coming ACA enrollment season.
The outages, which the administration says are for maintenance, will occur from midnight through noon on every Sunday other than Dec. 10. This year’s enrollment season, which the administration has shortened to half the length of previous years, will run from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15 for states that use the federal marketplace.
As usual, the headline "exaggerates" things. Give me a break. Midnight to noon? On Sundays? That's it? And The WSJ is alarmed! But if ObamaCare enrollments are down, we now know that The WSJ will blame a) the Russians; and, b) Trump for taking down the ObamaCare enrollment website. Wow.

Hardball. Residential solar energy. Death by a thousand cuts. Headline over at The WSJ: Trade decision roils U.S. solar industry. American panel makers see a godsend; panel sellers and installers fear higher prices for consumers.

Hardball. Amazon takes over the world. The comments, as usual, are the best part of the "article." This one paragraph from the article told me all I needed to know about this essay:
At New York University’s business school, where I teach, I have for years kept a close watch on which firms are winning the competition for the most talented students. A decade ago, the top recruiter was American Express , with investment banks vying for second position. Now the clear winner is Amazon: 12 students from my most recent class have opted for a life of rain and overrated coffee in the Pacific Northwest.
Opted for a life of rain and overrated coffee in the Pacific Northwest? Or NYC? LOL.

Annual precipitation (google search):
  • NYC: 45 inches
  • Seattle: 37.49 inches
NYU professor needs to do some basic fact checking when writing his essays. But yes, there are significantly more sunny days in NYC than in Seattle (224 vs 152).
Posted by at

Oasis To Report Some Great Forland Wells; Newfield To Report Some Great Malm Wells This Coming Week -- September 24, 2017

Note for newbies: the monthly production of the Forland wells and the Malm wells are absolutely incredible. If any one of these wells had this kind of initial production it would be noteworthy, but the consistency is the bigger story. These wells will go on producing for the next 30 years, with work overs, mini-fracks, re-fracks.

Monday,  October 2, 2017
33337, conf, BR, Dodge 2A TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

Sunday, October 1, 2017
33182, see below, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ford 21-16-159N-100W, Blue Ridge, producing,
32245, see below, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 7B, 

Saturday, September 30, 2017
32246, see below, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston, producing,  

Friday, September 29, 2017
  • 32247, 1,270, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 9B, Siverston, 50 stages, 10.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 127K 7/17;
Thursday, September 28, 2017
  • 33143, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22A MBH, Croff, no production data,
  • 32255, 1,262, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-35 12B,  Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, small/large/ceramics, t4/17; cum 133K 7/17;
  • 31870, SI/NC, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-6H, Pembroke, 27K over 17 days;
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
  • 33420, SI/NC, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-5H, Pembroke, 26K over 19 days;
  • 33144, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 22A MBH, Croff, no production data,
  • 31869, 2,250, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-7HLW,  Pembroke, 62 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t7/17; cum 16K over 8 days;
  • 30724, 634, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt, Three Forks, 35 stages; 5.3 million lbs; some ceramic; t4/17; cum 50K 7/17;

Tuesday, September 26, 2017
  • 33145, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22B UTFH, 
  • 32244, 781, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t3/17; cum 102K 7/17;
  • 31871, A, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke, t -- ; cum 21K over 19 days; exposure to target -- 58.1% in 15' target zone; 5.3% in middle Bakken D facies; 36.5% in middle Bakken B facies;
Monday, September 25, 2017
  • 33146, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 22B UTHF, Cross, no production data,
  • 32254, 1,320, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs; large/small/ceramic, t4/17; cum 97K 7/17;
  • 32243, 852, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston, 50 stages; 4 million lbs, large/small/ceramic; t3/17; cum 101K 7/17;
Sunday, September 24, 2017
  • 33326,, SI/NC, MRO, Spring 21-15TFH, Spring, no production data, 
  • 33147, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22C MBH, Croff, no production data,
Saturday, September 23, 2017
  • 33325, SI/NC, MRO, Chapman 31-15H, Bailey, no production data,
**********************************************

33182, see above, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ford 21-16-159N-100W, Blue Ridge:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-201738550
6-201711820

 32246, see above, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172543448258
6-20172754345960
5-20172700639866
4-20172793630818

32247, see above, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 9B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172915257806
6-20172867136620
5-20173292553427
4-20173373930818
3-201723320

32255, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-35 12B,  Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172434549194
6-20173138436300
5-20173806559940
4-20173900430818
3-20176730

31870, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-6H, Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172633025498

 33420, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-5H, Pembroke:

ateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172570422064

 31869, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-7HLW,  Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2017151905675

30724, see above, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2017129687891
6-2017142858572
5-2017159917674
4-201762132889

 32244, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20174195069603
6-20172160433637
5-20171564527910
4-20172157028693
3-201716393869

31871, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172052422161

32254, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172619049863
6-20172930453529
5-20172103234134
4-20171915230817
3-201711350

32243, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20173411069603
6-20172896654618
5-20171629241446
4-20171778410328
3-201737049986
Posted by at

EIA Overestimating US Crude Oil Production Growth -- Harold Hamm -- Bloomberg Reports -- September 24, 2017

I think this is most fascinating, Harold Hamm's thoughts on EIA projections. See this post for background. Today, Bloomberg posted a longer article following Hamm's comments.

Hamm is arguing that the EIA is overestimating US oil production growth this year. And that once the market recognizes the US forecasting error, Hamm says, crude prices could rise to $60 a barrel from $50 now.

According to Bloomberg that is good news for OPEC: that group is targeting a figure close to $60.

Again, no one is providing any real time frame: $60 by December, 2017? By March, 2018? By December, 2018?

From the article:
OPEC cuts are doing the job intended, shale isn't responding, and OPEC and friends may finally be reaping the rewards from nine months of impressive compliance with the output deals they agreed late last year.
"Nine months of impressive compliance." LOL. 

And OPEC is hoping for $60.

Back to the article:
How did U.S. government forecasters get it so wrong? They failed to recognize that U.S. shale producers were finally starting to focus on return on investment, rather than growth at any cost, Hamm said. When oil prices fell with the recovery in Nigerian and Libyan production during the second quarter, shale operators cut capital expenditure and output started to fall.
Bakken production:
  • July, 2017: 1,047,526 bopd
  • June, 2017: 1,032,873 bopd (second quarter)
  • May, 2017: 1,040,131 bopd  (second quarter)
  • April, 2017: 1,050,630 bopd (second quarter)
  • March, 2017: 1,025,638 bopd
  • February, 2017: 1,034,248 bopd
  • January, 2017: 981,380 bopd
  • December, 2016: 942,322 bopd
  • November, 2016: 1,034,484
I don't have Permian, Eagle Ford, or SCOOP/STACK production, but it's my understanding that the Permian has actually done better than the Bakken during this past year. I don't know about the Eagle Ford or SCOOP/STACK.

But there certainly is no indication that Bakken production "fell when oil prices fell with the recovery in Nigerian and Libyan production during the second quarter."

Production in the Bakken:
  • 1st quarter Bakken production: a low of 981,380 bopd
  • 2nd quarter Bakken production: a high of 1,050,630 bopd; fell to 1,032,873 by the end of the 2nd quarter but then back up to 1,047,526 bopd by the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. Some Bakken production numbers could be off slightly; some production data may be preliminary figures that were subsequently revised, but the delta will be minimal.

One more thing: the most interesting item came at the end of the article:
But perhaps a study published earlier in the week by analysts at Wood Mackenzie is what OPEC really wants to hear -- without technological innovation to overcome dwindling reservoir pressure, production from the Permian Basin could peak as soon as 2021. The shale boom flash in the pan will flare out and the world will return to "normal," with incremental demand to be met from the core OPEC countries and Russia once more. If the 158-year history of the oil industry has taught us anything, though, it is surely that innovation is one thing it is very good at.
Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

Random Update On An Old Vertical Lodgepole Well -- September 24, 2017

Last reported about one year ago. Note that this well is still flowing without a pump.

This well  has produced more than 800,000 bbls of oil; was drilled back in 2009, is a conventional (vertical) well:
  • 18190, 463, Armstrong, Laurine Engel 1, conventional, Dickinson, Lodgepole; 61,000 barrels in first five months (at $60 = $3.6 million and this is a conventional well); cum 806K 7/17;
Recently monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
LODGEPOLE7-2017314158395833177816350
LODGEPOLE6-2017304349438924182316850
LODGEPOLE5-2017314742470910193117880
LODGEPOLE4-2017304931504826200018620
LODGEPOLE3-2017315668559194218920460
LODGEPOLE2-20172856465646106219720680
LODGEPOLE1-20173168346884135267825350
LODGEPOLE12-2016306846673945271325750
LODGEPOLE11-2016307246739687289227540
LODGEPOLE10-20163183338236102340232590
LODGEPOLE9-201630844984720195318100
LODGEPOLE8-201631925992520387437310
LODGEPOLE7-201631928493340386737240
LODGEPOLE6-201630889788940365035120
LODGEPOLE5-201617490649360196618880
LODGEPOLE4-201614357733900144613820
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)