Tuesday, May 9, 2017

EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook For May, 2017, Has Been Released

Oil Markets:
  • Increased drilling rig activity is expected to boost to U.S. crude oil production this year and next, with forecast production in 2018 averaging 10 million barrels per day.
  • Higher oil production from the United States, along with rising oil output from Canada and Brazil, is expected to curb upward pressure on global oil prices through the end of 2018.
Gasoline/Refined Products:
  • The recent decline in crude oil prices and rising gasoline inventories are cutting into pump prices, lowering the average price U.S. drivers are expected to pay for gasoline this summer.
  • U.S. gasoline inventories rose in April, a month when they normally fall.
  • Because of higher overall pump prices this year, the average U.S. household is expected to spend about $150 more for gasoline during 2017 than last year. However, gasoline expenditures are still expected to be lower than the average for the previous five years.
  • U.S. industrial production growth, rising rail traffic, and higher drilling rig activity are pushing up distillate fuel use.
Natural Gas:
  • U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to increase almost 5% next year.
Electricity:
  • U.S. electricity generation is expected to be flat this year and then increase in 2018, with natural gas-fired generating facilities accounting for the biggest share of electricity supplies during both years.
Coal:
  • U.S. coal production is expected to rise 5% this year and about 1% in 2018 on higher coal-fired electricity generation, which would be the first back-to-back annual increase in coal output since 2010-11.
Renewables:
  • The amount of U.S. wind power generation capacity is expected to top 100 gigawatts by the end of next year, when it would account for 9% of the electric power sector’s total generation capacity, and provide more than 6% of total electricity supplies.

Uber, Lyft As Disruptors -- May 9, 2017

Updates

June 5, 2017: Chicago taxi cabs nearing extinction due to Uber, Lyft.  

Original Post
 
The other day there was a report that DFW was $10 million short covering for new parking garages and refurbishing of parking garages. The reason: fewer people are driving to the airport and leaving their car parked there while on a short business trip. Folks are taking Uber instead, the report said.
The headline: DFW airport faces $10 million shortfall as Uber, Lyft hurt parking revenue. 
The daily rate is $24.
The airport had budgeted to collect $80.7 million in parking revenues for the first six months of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. So far, the airport has collected $76.9 million.
To compensate for the lower revenues, Donohue said the airport has deferred some technology projects by six to nine months.
Now this from today's Wall Street Journal: Hertz shares plunge on wide earnings miss. Shares were off more than 20% midmorning before regaining ground.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

These stories should suggest to investors that it would be a good idea to look at each of their individual holdings and think if there are any disruptive technologies out there that might invite a disaster. Closely connected with disruptive technologies is the old concept of "moats." For example, I learned from Warren Buffett that the railroads a) have relative geographic monopolies; and, b) have huge moats.

Fossil fuel pipelines (crude oil and natural gas) also fall into the category of entities with huge moats.

But back to the Hertz story. From the article, data points:
  • too many passenger cars, instead of the SUVs that customers want
  • lower resale values on passenger cars vs SUVs
  • the company cited increased spending as another reason for the poor performance
  • it was noted that the company felt an increased presence from activist Carl Icahn whose allies hold several board seats
  • wow: a net loss of $1.61/share compared with a net loss of 79 cents a share during the same period a year ago
  • EPS: a net loss of $1.61 vs 90 cents forecast -- wow!
It looks like much of their problem has to do with a flood of used vehicles coming off their leases, which reduced used-car prices:
Ms. Marinello on an investor call Tuesday blamed the poor quarter on Hertz’s optimistic views on its fleet, which resulted in the company buying too many cars to prepare for the summer selling season.
Now, the company has too many cars it can’t sell that are depreciating more than expected. Ms. Marinello expects Hertz will have an optimal mix of trucks and SUVs by the end of June.
By the way, this problem was noted on the blog a year or so ago. Some analyst noted that. I didn't buy into at the time; I was wrong. Fortunately I have / had no investments in car rental companies, at least not directly.

Nothing was mentioned in the article about Uber and Lyft, surprisingly. According to Jim Cramer on CNBC Hertz has consistently denied any concern with regard to Uber and Lyft.

How interesting to find this article in The Los Angeles Times, December 13, 2016: "Feeling the squeeze of Uber and Lyft, Herts looks to start-up Shift to sell its used cars." From the story, which is fascinating, by the way:
Rental car companies are looking for additional revenue opportunities as they find themselves squeezed by a major shift in how travelers get around. For many people, the affordability and convenience of Uber, Lyft and other ride-hailing apps have pushed rental cars aside. 
Ride-hailing services overtook rental cars among American professionals for the first time in the fourth quarter of last year, according to travel and expense management software firm Certify. 
Since July 1, Hertz’s stock has plummeted 48%, ending the day Monday at $22.73. In June, Hertz signed a deal to provide rentals to Uber and Lyft drivers who don’t have cars.
And more:

Yelp reported earnings today, after the market closed. And the shares in Yelp immediately plunged almost 30%:



Why?  I can think of a lot of reasons, but the "talking heads" suggest that Uber and Lyft are actually "taking over" in this arena. Yelp is a one-trick pony. Uber and Lyft have a stable of stallions, apparently.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/aviation/sky-talk-blog/article148659799.html#storylink=cpy

Update On Takeaway Capacity In The Marcellus / Utica -- May 9, 2017

Active rigs:


5/9/201705/09/201605/09/201505/09/201405/09/2013
Active Rigs492884192183

RBN Energy: another update on the Marcellus / Utica gas pipeline takeaway projects.
For years now, limited natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity has constrained gas production growth in the Marcellus/Utica natural gas shale plays in the Northeast.
To fix that, a slew of pipeline projects were planned to relieve the constraints as regional supply began outstripping demand starting in 2014.
Now, the region is on the verge of being unconstrained for the first time since the Shale Revolution hit Appalachia. Many of those projects have come online since then, and another 19 expansions totaling 15.5 Bcf/d are planned for completion by late 2019.
If all goes as expected, this next round of projects should turn the Northeast market on its head again, as the capacity additions should start to outpace production growth. The problem, though, is that several projects have faced significant challenges in recent months, resulting in either cancellation or major delays.
At the same time, Marcellus/Utica production growth has slowed dramatically in the past 18 months or so. In today’s blog, “In a Northeast Minute…Everything Can Change — An Update of Marcellus/Utica Takeaway Projects,” Sheetal Nasta begins a series looking at the status of regional takeaway capacity expansions.
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A Note To The Granddaughters

Two new books on the nightstand, the first being:
Something in the Blood: The Untold Story of Bram Stoker, The Man Who Wrote 'Dracula', by David J. Skal, c.2016. A review here.
I have always wanted to read a biography of Bram Stoker. Some/much (a key par) of Dracula was conceived at Whitby, northern Yorkshire, of which I have fond memories. I hiked the coast from coast from Robin Hood's Bay to Whitby one summer Saturday many years ago. It was an incredible trek. I spent the day in Whitby, awed by the Whitby Abbey, and then walked back on an inland road to Robin Hood's Bay where I left the car. According to Google Maps, the trek back was 5.5 miles and would have take almost two hours.

The coast route was incredibly challenging, walking on top of the cliffs, not on the beach.

The second book:
The Lost Landscape: A Writer's Coming of Age, Joyce Carol Oates, c. 2015.  
At one time I cared not for Joyce Carol Oates but that has all changed. It was an article in some newspaper some weeks ago that changed all my thoughts about this author. I don't remember the specifics. I have read very little of her work but what I have read, I have enjoyed. It should be interesting to read this memoir.

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Another Note To The Granddaughters

Breakfast prepared for Sophia by her two older sisters this past Sunday:

The Market And Energy Page, T+109 -- May 9, 2017

Closing: Nasdaq hits another all-time high. Dow 30 was going to finish almost flat but then in the last 30 minutes dropped 70 points, only to close about 30 points down -- reportedly due to "alarm" over NOKO testing another nuclear weapon. WTI was down again today, closing right at $46.03, but I believe I saw WTI touch slightly below $46 about the time the market closed.

Opening: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records; S&P now over 2400; big caps and tech pushing us up; energy lagging (badly). 

Futures: Dow 30 up about 38 points; WTI flat at about $46.50.

Whoohoo! SRE beats by 7 cents; 1Q17 EPS of $1.74. Revenue also beats: $3.03B (+15.6% -- wow -- y/y) beats by $160 million. SRE closed down 21 cents yesterday at $111.94; have to see where it goes today.

Permian's good news: from EIA today --
As crude oil production in the Permian Basin of western Texas and eastern New Mexico has increased, pipeline infrastructure has also increased to deliver this crude oil to demand centers on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
One indicator of a potential shortfall in available takeaway capacity in the Permian is a negative spread between the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at Midland, Texas, and the price of WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Going forward, the Midland versus Cushing discount, which recently widened to more than $1 per barrel (b), is unlikely to be either as large or as persistent as it was following the rapid increase in Permian production from 2010 to 2014. At points in both late 2012 and mid-2014, WTI-Midland was priced at least $15/b lower than WTI-Cushing.
Pipeline capacity expansions and other market changes are now underway to deliver more Permian crude oil to demand centers.
US GOM: new investment crucial to keep deepwater GOM production afloat. 

Hedge funds bail: just before OPEC-driven oil rally vanishes.

So sorry to hear this (LOL): PetroVietnam says Venezuela oil project still stalled.

Amazon unveils new Echo -- oh yeah. I'm getting one! And one for Sophia? We can talk to each other when we are in our own homes.

The Political Page, T+109 -- May 9, 2017 -- Flashback: President Obama Takes Golfing Trip To Ireland During The 2013 Sequestration

Lately the press has been giving the White House press secretary "grief" over the fact that President Trump is actually spending some weekends outside of Washington, DC. The press is accusing the president of wasting tax dollars. LOL.

From 2013, do folks remember the "sequestration?"

The budget sequestration in 2013 refers to the automatic spending cuts to United States federal government spending in particular categories of outlays that were initially set to begin on January 1, 2013, as an austerity fiscal policy as a result of Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA), and were postponed by two month.
From a March 20, 2013, post on the blog:
One nice thing about the sequester: one quickly learns what is important to the administration. 
  • White House tours canceled. Presidential golf tours continue, even a golfing trip in Ireland.
  • Nuclear waste cleanup at Hanford, Washington: 200 laid off; 2,500 furloughed, leaving less than 8,000 full-time government workers/contractors to do something a lot of folks would think is important.
  • Congress won't allow USPS to stop Saturday mail delivery.