Monday, March 27, 2017

The Katie Ledecky Page -- March 27, 2017

I missed this one.

March 15, 2017, NBC Sports reported:
Katie Ledecky wasted no time breaking records at a new meet, the NCAA Championships.
The Stanford freshman captured her first NCAA title in her championships debut, anchoring the Cardinal to victory in the 4×200-yard freestyle relay and breaking the American record by more than three seconds.
Olympic medalists Simone Manuel and Lia Neal and Ella Eastin swam the first three legs, and Ledecky capped it off, touching the wall in 6 minutes, 45.91 seconds. Stanford set the previous American record of 6:49.42 earlier this season with Neal, Eastin, Ledecky and Katie Drabot.
Ledecky had the second-fastest split of any swimmer for any school in the event, a 1:40.46. Louisville sophomore Mallory Comerford split 1:40.21.
March 18, 2017, USA Today reported:
Her seed time for the 1,650-yard free is also almost 30 seconds faster than than [Virginia senior Leah] Smith’s, who is seeded second.
So, how did Ledecky do in that 1,650-yard freestyle race. She .... spoiler alert ... won. NBC Sports reported:
Katie Ledecky lapped all but one swimmer through 1,000 yards of her 1650-yard NCAA Championships race, and won by 21.19 seconds.
Yet she didn’t come close to her race goal.
Ledecky won the 1650, her third individual title in three events this week, in 15 minutes, 7.70 seconds. She was slower than her American record of 15:03.92, and missed her aspiration of becoming the first woman to break 15 minutes.
I think "they" need to put a porpoise in the pool for Ledecky to use as a rabbit (as in greyhound racing). Or let Michael Phelps race with the women when Ledecky is in the pool.

Strong, Strong Evidence That Eight Years Of Economic Stagnation And A Never-Ending Apology Tour By President Obama Is Finally Coming To An End -- March 27, 2017

Last week the mainstream media had an article suggesting that President Trump was taking credit for a particular company expanding in the US. The mainstream media suggested that the company had this plan in the works for quite some time.

Break, break.

My son-in-law works for a truck manufacturing company. Last year, under the Obama administration, the company cut back on the number of shifts and laid off a fair number of employees because they were not getting orders for their trucks.

My son-in-law said that the company would decide on future workload based on whether Trump was elected president or not.

Over the weekend, my daughter called to tell me that the company was going to mandatory overtime for the next three months because they were now getting more orders. The increase in orders was due completely to whether Trump was elected president or not. The truck manufacturing facility where my son-in-law works is in a strong blue, a strong-Hillary state.

Break, break.

Now we get word that Ford will be investing in three Michigan plants. From Detroit News:
Ford Motor Co. will announce investments in three of its Michigan manufacturing plants Tuesday morning, according to three sources familiar with the automaker’s plans.
The Dearborn-based automaker will announce investments at its Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Flat Rock Assembly Plant and its Romeo Engine Plant, according to the sources who agreed to speak only on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information. It is unclear how many jobs will be created, or the total dollar amount.
However, one of the sources characterized the investments as “significant.” A promised $700 million investment at the Michigan Assembly Plant was part of the 2015 Ford-United Auto Workers contract.
Tuesday’s investment announcement comes less than two weeks after President Donald Trump pushed auto executives for more U.S. jobs and new manufacturing plants in the U.S. during a stop in Ypsilanti Township. Trump hinted then that a big auto industry announcement was coming last week, though it did not appear to happen. It’s unclear if Ford’s announcement is the same news teased by Trump.
Obviously the mainstream press will say that this could not have happened in less than two weeks, that in fact this was in the works for quite some time.

In fact, the decision to go forward was clearly made in light of President Trump's election.

Frankly, I'm getting tired of all this, so in the future, I probably won't go into the back-story to this degree. I track this stuff for my benefit; I understand it. Cupcakes, snowflakes, and fruitcakes won't understand it no matter how often they read about it. I post it for reasons I've mentioned before.

There is a second point, and a much better point to be made. As noted earlier, the truck plant my son-in-law works at was at risk of closing shop due to lack of truck orders. That facility is now considering adding a second shift but are waiting to see if the orders continue to accelerate.

At the same time, we get the Ford announcement.

This is the second point: this suggests to me that after eight years of economic stagnation in thei country, there is a suggestion that we are finally turning the corner. And it is happening despite President Trump not yet getting one thing through Congress. He doesn't even have his full cabinet confirmed yet, and was handed a most humbling and embarrassing defeat by his own party yesterday.

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Black Beauty and Chariots

When our oldest / first granddaughter was a toddler I started reading Black Beauty (Anna Sewell) to her. I had never read the book before then and I don't know who picked it out for her. But from the time Arianna was two years old to when she was seven years old, I read that book to her over and over. Early on, I just read a page or two at one sitting, and then gradually started reading a chapter or two at each sitting when she was older. She would read a page; I would read a page.

By the time she was five years old, she often wanted to read more pages at one sitting than I wanted, but I persevered. 

If one wants to really know the history of a horse from its first days to its "retirement," this is clearly the book to read. In the process I also learned the names of many different wagons pulled by English horses.

I was reminded of that while reading The Discovery of Middle Earth: Mapping the Lost World of the Celts, by Graham Robb, c. 2013. It's one of my "top-shelf" books and I keep it in a zip-lock bag as I do with all my "top-shelf" books.

Roman chariots? Hardly. It turns out they are "Gaulish chariots." From page 27:
When the Gauls settled in northern Italy in the fourth century BC, their technology amazed the Romans, whose cumbersome conveyances seemed to belong to an earlier stage of history. Faced with the new machines, the Romans borrowed a whole vocabulary  of vehicular transport: carros (wagon, carriage); cission (cabriolet); couinnos and essedon (two-wheeled chariots); petruroton (four-wheeled carriage); carbanton (covered carriage); reda (four-wheeled coach). Nearly all the Latin words for wheeled vehicles came from Gaulish.  

DAPL Pipeline Oil Under The Lake -- March 27, 2017

Story here.

From the legal document submitted by the operator to the court:
Oil has been placed in the Dakota Access Pipeline underneath Lake Oahe. Dakota Access is currently commissioning the full pipeline and is preparing to place the pipeline into service.
In light of these developments, Dakota Access understands that weekly status reports are no longer required under the terms of the February 13, 2017 Order. The company therefore will not be filing additional reports unless otherwise directed by the Court.
And that would make sense. At this point, it now becomes proprietary information. 

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A Little Blue Would Be Nice

Post-Shut-In-Jump-In-Production -- March 27, 217

This did not occur in the Elidah oil field. But this data and the data from the Elidah oil field seem to suggest that the Elidah oil field is telling us something.

The production profile below is for this well:
  • 26214, 2,122, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-3H, Charlson, Three Forks, 34 stages, 3.6 million lb, t1/14; cum 385K 1/17
For full note on this well, go to this post: http://wellsofinterest.blogspot.com/2017/03/post-shut-in-jump-in-production-march.html.

This well was fracked only once, back in 2014. This well was not re-fracked. It was off-line for less than a month -- and for some unknown reason the production jumped. In fact, in 10/16, monthly production was the highest ever recorded for one month, more than doubling from 9,000 bbls to 19,365 bbls/month  -- and again, just by taking the well off-line for about a month.

Most recent monthly production data (jump in productin not due to fracking of this well):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2017311197811913132815441152250
BAKKEN12-2016311289212819155217121169050
BAKKEN11-2016301347213502172719047188380
BAKKEN10-2016311936519955381429434292180
BAKKEN9-20161293728464360813695136170
BAKKEN8-201621422844009031982119075600
BAKKEN7-201631892385771402255962533650


Early production data, after initial frack (1/8/2014 - 1/12/14):
BAKKEN2-201528935893219371659515974425
BAKKEN1-201531116571153713162445223912322
BAKKEN12-20142412132120021172204002021015
BAKKEN11-2014261020610370990173621715730
BAKKEN10-2014311694316883266234004324951306
BAKKEN9-2014301013610082914127421249240
BAKKEN8-2014311255512642105416682152891176
BAKKEN7-201431125521256211831635015337797
BAKKEN6-2014301342913539132218651142794162
BAKKEN5-201431141471409014891933518715403
BAKKEN4-2014301448214432148425869614919509
BAKKEN3-2014311619116313204830253030036
BAKKEN2-2014281710517336273126607026411
BAKKEN1-20141616571159401050022678022566

Two Petro-Hunt Charlson USA Wells Are Finally Completed -- 50 Stages But Only 5 Million Lbs For Each -- March 27, 2017

28017, 830, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-5H, Charlson, Three Fork, 50 stages, 5 million lbs, t10/16; cum 75K 1/17;

Recently monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2017311571915697248221600
BAKKEN12-2016311753917726303121600
BAKKEN11-2016302004720050373020900
BAKKEN10-20162622090215874847438404229
BAKKEN9-20160000000


28015, 816, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-2HS, Charlson, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 77K 1/17;

Recently monthly production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2017311673016875302021600
BAKKEN12-201631195411954138814250209
BAKKEN11-2016302013520104592720900
BAKKEN10-201630200792015712279141701229
BAKKEN9-2016243805032480248
BAKKEN8-20160000000