The Market And Energy Page, T+33; Photo Contest; Housing Sales -- Trump Rally -- February 22, 2017

Bullish bear: Dennis Gartman -- bullish on oil for the first time in five years. Sees upside of $6 to $8; downside, $2 - $3. Driving factor: WTI held despite record builds this past two weeks. On CNBC at 8:40 a.m. Central Time, February 22, 2017.

Bakken CAPEX: Whiting Petroleum nearly doubles its capital spending budget.

Zeits: natural gas update, over at SeekingAlpha.

EVs: The Economist bullish on EVs now that diesel is a dud.  Why I love to blog. Two days ago I posted a note about "dieselgate" in Europe (that latter link). Now, last night, The Economist is absolutely giddy about how fast EV popularity will surge (the former link).

Improving technology and tightening regulations on emissions from ICEs is about to propel electric vehicles (EVs) from a niche to the mainstream. After more than a century of reliance on fossil fuels, however, the route from petrol power to volts will be a tough one for carmakers to navigate.

The change of gear is recent. One car in a hundred sold today is powered by electricity. The proportion of EVs on the world’s roads is still well below 1%. Most forecasters had reckoned that by 2025 that would rise to around 4%. Those estimates are undergoing a big overhaul as carmakers announce huge expansions in their production of EVs. Morgan Stanley, a bank, now says that by 2025 EV sales will hit 7m a year and make up 7% of vehicles on the road. Exane BNP Paribas, another bank, reckons that it could be more like 11% (see chart). But as carmakers plan for ever more battery power, even these figures could quickly seem too low.

Reality:

The photo below was taken in Bowman, ND, this past week. Fisker hybrid/EVs were being driven from California to Minnesota for "road testing." They require "special chargers." And without the ability to re-charge their $100,000+ bricks, they need to fill up "canisters" of gasoline (sic) for the next leg of their trip. Story here.

I assume the U-Haul trailer that will carry the canisters of "gasoline" is not pictured. A U-Haul trailer is most likely needed because of lack of cargo space in this non-SUV, or maybe they will simply place the canisters in the back seat. The displaced passengers can call Uber.

Tell me again that EV popularity will surge.

****************************

The Market

First Solar:

Late morning: Dow has turned slightly positive. In the big scheme of things, really, really quiet.

Opening: slightly negative. AAPL #1 in market value by a wide margin.

Existing home sales: 10-year high.  Trump rally.

Active Rigs Steady At 42; Higher Than One Year Ago -- February 22, 2017

Active rigs:

	2/22/2017	02/22/2016	02/22/2015	02/22/2014	02/22/2013
Active Rigs	42	39	127	187	183

RBN Energy: new natural gas processing and fractionation capacity in Marcellus/Utica.

Scott Adams: persuasion advice for African-Americans.

Worth repeating:

What A Great Country -- Nothing About The Bakken -- An Amazon Vignette -- February 22, 2017

This has nothing to do with the Bakken. It's just an excuse to do something while listening to some great music.

Reason To Believe, Rod Stewart
What a great country.

Early this morning, about 8:30 a.m. my wife mentioned that she really liked one of the sauce pans she "earned" in some grocery story promotion and wished she had had enough "coupons" to get the larger saucepan.

On a lark, as they say, I went to Amazon, and ordered the complete pots and pans set. At checkout, Amazon.com said that "if I wanted I could have same day shipment" because I am a Prime Amazon member. I was curious if they could do it, so at 8:45 a.m. or thereabouts, I clicked on "free same day shipment."

Within an hour or two, I was told that the pots and pans had shipped and "guaranteed delivery" by 9:00 p.m. same day.

At 7:00 p.m. the order had not arrived.

We live in a gated community. That means the gate is closed and locked at 6:30 p.m. daily. I knew that if the courier -- Lone Star Shipping -- actually showed up after 6:30 p.m. the driver would not be able to access the gate and would simply state "tried to deliver" and then drive off, with delivery some time tomorrow.

I was curious if Lone Star would actually show up.

So, at 7:00 p.m. I sat on the curb outside the gate and waited. And waited. And waited.

I had my computer to keep me occupied so I didn't mind waiting. But by 8:30 p.m. I was pretty much ready to pack it in.

But with only 30 minutes to go, I thought I would hang out until the deadline, the guaranteed time that the product would be delivered.

At 8:50 p.m., under pitch black conditions, a small minivan with LSO (Lone Star) pulled up to the curb. A man -- somewhat confused -- got out when I approached the driver's side. I was thrilled. It was obvious it was the Amazon order, arriving ten minutes before the guaranteed time. Just like Cinderella and midnight, I guess.

It was interesting though how thorough the courier was verifying that I was truly the individual for whom the package was intended. I even described what I was waiting for ... and he exclaimed, "yes, the pots and pans." And then he asked to see my driver's license again (for the third time).

I asked him his name. Ola. It sounded Turkish. But he clearly was not Turkish. I asked him his nationality. Nigerian.

Wow, what a great guy. What a great experience.

I gave him a huge tip. Enough to pay for gas for a week.

What a great country.

The Whiskey Rebellion, The Bakken, And All That Jazz -- February 22, 2017

Tomorrow I may regret posting this but for now -- ahh, it's late at night -- who will see this?

This is really, really cool. Earlier today I was reading about the history of salt and re-read the history of the Whisky Rebellion. And then out of the blue, I get this note from a reader, with minimal editing:

Tomorrow, the 22nd of February is the deadline for the pipeline protestors to evacuate from their camps in North Dakota.  They've been trespassing on Federal land, managed by the Army Corps of Engineers since last fall. [The Obama Doctrine: let this play out.]

What started out as a/an euphoric community camp-out last August got overrun with a bunch of out-of-state rabble0rousers.  The Standing Rock Sioux tribe passed a unanimous resolution on January 20, 2017, asking that the camps be vacated and no new ones be started.

The state of ND is trying its damnedest to make this easy for the remaining folks to leave.  If they are without resources, ND will give them a hot meal, a hotel room, and a bus ticket home.

Whatever you see on the news tomorrow, please remember that even the tribe doesn't want these folks there, and that no part of the Dakota Access pipeline crosses that reservation. 

Also, dismiss the histrionics of reporters who are aghast at what they incorrectly allege to be an unprecedented "militarized force" against  Americans.  

Those bozos had to have missed even more school than I did.  

George Washington led 13,000 troops against his fellow countrymen in an effort to quash the Whiskey Rebellion, and of course Richard Daley summoned 24,000 National Guard to the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago - he thought tear gas smelled better than the 10,000 hippies who were protesting outside the Hilton.  

Anyway - blessings and safe passage to our law enforcement folks tomorrow and always. 

I am always impressed that my readers are so much more articulate than I am.

Whiskey River, Willie Nelson and Asleep At The Wheel

Random Example Of A Re-Entered, Re-Completed Well, Targeting Same Formation -- February 22, 2017

This is really straight-forward.

First, the production profile:

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	29	14244	13785	3659	26735	26735	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	15357	15489	3726	29642	29642	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	15504	15314	3525	41641	41641	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	14696	14187	4118	26688	26688	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	20	11178	12114	3106	22273	22273	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	19166	18639	6698	36095	36095	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	10	8807	8212	2900	15211	9336	5875
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	1	44	0	20	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	16	1593	1920	612	1707	1707	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	20	1768	1539	432	1574	1574	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	9	311	467	285	356	356	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	20	508	480	362	509	187	322
BAKKEN	8-2015	19	574	422	540	706	463	243
BAKKEN	7-2015	22	687	951	657	880	663	217
BAKKEN	6-2015	25	576	432	645	967	538	429
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	884	964	876	1583	1130	453
BAKKEN	4-2015	20	673	564	567	740	549	191
BAKKEN	3-2015	26	877	814	854	1915	1562	353
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	1225	1477	1426	1109	986	124
BAKKEN	1-2015	14	418	455	682	407	0	407
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	4	163	0	0	247	0	247
BAKKEN	10-2014	12	268	355	213	370	370	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	794	782	726	67	20	47
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	655	810	1017	51	51	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	1965	1713	1419	1553	1553	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	8	437	350	663	257	10	247
BAKKEN	5-2014	5	159	0	50	122	122	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	3	208	205	58	2291	1	2290
BAKKEN	3-2014	5	237	227	60	443	417	26
BAKKEN	2-2014	11	243	626	280	108	0	108
BAKKEN	1-2014	30	811	1230	634	192	0	192
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	827	779	491	264	0	264
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	345	594	602	275	0	275
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	1913	1262	484	443	0	443
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	1461	2117	203	412	0	412
BAKKEN	8-2013	9	1084	518	110	262	159	103
BAKKEN	7-2013	30	1768	1760	292	1928	274	1654
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	707	1074	20	1689	1212	477
BAKKEN	5-2013	1	392	392	0	73	73	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	0	0	0	87	87	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	163	0	0	193	193	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	0	261	20	664	664	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	992	907	529	1951	1151	799
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	806	480	324	1138	884	253
BAKKEN	11-2012	28	1366	945	1467	2593	1822	770
BAKKEN	10-2012	19	460	920	881	1105	1004	101
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	1229	1329	1976	2403	1715	688
BAKKEN	8-2012	22	1257	1297	1877	4311	1982	2329
BAKKEN	7-2012	18	675	407	704	2364	1033	1331
BAKKEN	6-2012	24	1528	1450	1514	2555	1898	656
BAKKEN	5-2012	12	1050	1348	0	2032	1695	337
BAKKEN	4-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	16	1294	939	977	2438	1069	1369
BAKKEN	2-2012	7	207	0	0	407	152	254
BAKKEN	1-2012	24	3028	3039	0	4951	0	4951
BAKKEN	12-2011	1	131	44	0	190	0	190
BAKKEN	11-2011	29	619	779	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2011	13	1520	1263	1	2204	0	2204

This well was originally completed/fracked in late 2011, with the following IP:

• 20336, 1,162, middle Bakken, 20 stages, 2.1 million lbs, t8/11; cum --

The results were awful. Look at the production from late 2011 to early 2012 -- it almost appears as if the well had not been fracked.

In a sundry form received by the NDIC on October 9, 2015, BR requested permission to drill a new lateral from the same vertical hole. In that same sundry form, BR requested the name of the well be amended to "Sun Notch 43-32H-R." The "R" in this case, I assume was "re-drill."

The results, including a new IP from that new lateral:

• 20336, 2,204, middle Bakken, 32 stages, 4.2 million lbs; t5/16; cum 140K 12/16;

Again, this well has implications for the Bakken as a whole.  

Although this is tagged as a re-entry and as a re-fracked well, technically it's simply drilling and completing a new lateral.