Some Spectacular Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday: Oasis, Murex, Halcon, BR, WPX All With Nice Wells;10/18 Wells To DRL Status

Monday, July 15, 2013

• 21275, drl, Enerplus Resources, Music 148-93-18D-07-4H TF, McGregory Buttes, no data,
• 22313, 1,545, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-28A-33-2H, McGregory Buttes, t4/13; cum 19K 5/13;
• 23017, 4,174, Oasis, Ashlin 5300 44-12B, Willow Creek, t2/13; cum 82K 5/13;
• 23018, 2,559, Oasis, Andy 5300 44-12T, Willow Creek, t2/13; cum 51K 5/13;
• 23633, drl, Statoil, Michael Owan 26-35 2TFH, Painted Woods, no data,
• 23788, drl, XTO, Thorp Federal 11X-28F, Little Knife, no data,
• 24132, drl, XTO, FBIR Walterpackswolf 31X-12D, Heart Butte, no data,
• 24340, 658, Hunt Oil, Frazier 1-24-13HTF, Frazier, t4/13; cum 22K 5/13;
• 24388, drl, Hess, EN-Uran A 154-93-1522H-2, Robinson Lake, no data,
• 24685, drl, QEP, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail, no data,

Sunday, July 14, 2013

• 21858, 206, CLR,, Knutson 1-15H, Stoneview, t5/13; cum 3K 5/13;
• 23460, 1,450, MRO, Hansen Ranch USA 44-10H, Bailey, t5/13; cum 19K 5/13;

Saturday, July 13, 2013

• 22912, 2,972, BR, Old Hickory 14-33TFH, Sand Creek, 4-sec spacing, t5/13; cum 12K 5/13;
• 23303, 2,888, WPX, Blackhawk 1-12H, Moccasin Creek, t11/12; cum 78K 5/13;
• 23990, 3,657, Statoil, Beaux 18-19 2TFH, Banks, t8/13; cum --
• 24389, drl, Hess, EN-Uran A 154-93-1522H-3, Robinson Lake, no data,
• 24456, drl, CLR, Hawkinson 14-22H2, Oakdale, no data,
• 24686, drl, QEP, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail, no data

**********************************

 22313, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-28A-33-2H, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	8962	0
4-2013	9616	0

23017, see above, Oasis, Ashlin 5300 44-12B, Willow Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	13393	10867
4-2013	14515	12802
3-2013	16031	17188
2-2013	23480	8006
1-2013	13730	0

23018, see above, Oasis, Andy 5300 44-12T, Willow Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	6293	4724
4-2013	14487	13184
3-2013	13366	10470
2-2013	13532	7712
1-2013	2567	0

24340, see above, Hunt Oil, Frazier 1-24-13HTF, Frazier:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	9101	0
4-2013	11227	0
3-2013	1030	0

23460, see above, MRO, Hansen Ranch USA 44-10H, Bailey:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	18412	6004

22912, see above, BR, Old Hickory 14-33TFH, Sand Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	11586	0

23303, see above, WPX, Blackhawk 1-12H, Moccasin Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2013	33647	0
4-2013	28289	6859

For The Archives: North Dakota Oil Production

For the archives: FinancialSense.com is reporting that Bakken production will eventually plateau. Well, duh. I'm not sure what the point of the article was. Of course, a lot of my posts don't have any points or purposes either; I guess that's what blogging is all about.

Whatever.

Having said that, the graph at the linked article was most interesting. North Dakota is currently producing about 800,000 bopd. In 2055, these are the production estimates:

• proven: 500,000 bopd
• probable: 600,000 bopd
• possible: 900,000 bopd

For these projections, the following data for technically-reoverable oil was (were?) used:

• proven: 7 billion bbls
• probable: 10 billion bbls
• possible: 15 billion bbls

The "15-billion-bbl" figure is still very, very low by some estimates:

• USGS: 7 billion bbls (which the USGS admits, is conservative)
• CLR, pre-2013 USGS assessment: 24 billion bbls (middle Bakken, upper Three Forks)
• CLR, post-2013 USGS assessment: 54 billion bbls (middle Bakken, four benches of the Three Forks) 

I don't think one can use straight arithmetic to extrapolate, but if one did, at 24 billion bbls technically-recoverable oil, one could see 1.5 million bopd being produced by the state in 2055. This is consistent with what the Bentek analysis predicted: 2.2 million bopd by 2022.

The graph is titled "North Dakota oil production" but the accompanying notes refer only to the the Bakken/Three Forks. Likewise the CLR figures of 24 and 54 billion bbls refer only to the Bakken/Three Forks. 

If Harold Hamm is correct, the graph referenced above could look a lot different in 2055. By then I will have celebrated by 100th birthday.

But again, worse case scenario: North Dakota oil production will be "about the same" in 2055 as it was in 2011. Pretty spectacular, I would say. 2011 was a pretty good year by all accounts.

Oops! They've Done It Again; The Permitorium Continues

Last year, in March, 2012, it was reported that production of oil, gas, and coal on federal lands sunk to a nine-year low -- the graph was quite impressive. This was not a small decline. 

The updated EIA report revealed a 12 percent decline in production for coal, oil, and natural gas on federal and Indian lands from fiscal 2003 through fiscal 2011.

The EIA is now reporting that the decline has set a 10-year low through fiscal year 2012.

The San Onofre Story

The Los Angeles Times is reporting.

This is a 3-page internet story about closing the San Onofre nuclear reactors in southern California. It is a very well-written article. I am posting it only because it is simply a great article detailing why the San Onofre nuclear reactors were shut down permanently.

The plant had been operating since 1968 and was nearing its expected life expectancy when a proposed $1 billion "fix" was suggested. If the "fix" worked, it would help the power plant get a 20-year renewal of its operating license.  San Onofre is one of two nuclear power plants in California; it is a  2,200 megawatt power plant that provides electricity to 1.4 million homes.

The "fix" was in the form of new steam generators which cost in the ballpark of $700 million -- in the story, the reporter says the "fix" was a billion-dollar blunder.

CLR's Historic August, 2012, Corporate Presentation May Soon Be Lost To The Archives

I assume the CLR corporate presentation of August 10, 2012, (almost a year old now) will soon be no longer available at the CLR website.

It's a "historic" presentation and folks may want to keep a copy for archival purposes. The presentation can be found here (I assume in another couple of months it will be gone simply because the presentation will be fairly "old").

I discussed the presentation in a posting suggesting that the Bakken/Three Forks (all benches) is a trillion-barrel reservoir with 45 billion bbls of technically-recoverable oil. I may be using the wrong word but suggesting original oil in place to be one trillion bbls (rounded); this would suggest a recovery rate of 4.5% which many would argue is way too high. Most folks seem to suggest only 1 to 3 percent of OOIP is currently being recovered, though there have been oil experts suggesting as much as 8% in some places in the Bakken.

For newbies, the 2013 USGS estimated about 7 billion bbls of technically-recoverable oil and CLR's Harold Hamm suggested 24 billion bbls of technically-recoverable oil from the middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks.