Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Seven-Part Series On The Major Players In The Permian; Writer: Ingrid Pan -- 2013

For newbies: again, there are three oil plays currently boom in the US: west Texas/Permian (primarily the Spraberry and the Wolfcamp); south Texas/West Gulf (the Eagle Ford); and, North Dakota/Williston Basin (Bakken).

The links are to the Market Realist:

For 2012: Eight North Dakota Counties In Top 100 US Counties in Home Building: Williams and Ward Counties, #1 and #2 Nationwide, Respectively

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting, these data points:
  • nationwide, North Dakota is #1 in rate of construction of new housing units: 2.3%; nationwide: 0.3%
  • of the top 100 counties in the entire US, Williams County (Williston) is ranked #1; Ward County (Minot) is ranked #2.
Six other North Dakota counties ranked among the top 100: Burleigh (Bismarck), Cass (Fargo), Grand Forks, Morton (Mandan), Stark (Dickinson) and Ramsey (Devils Lake).

North Dakota's new housing rate of construction: almost 14% with 1,525 new units. Ward County came in at almost 5% with 1,318 new units.

This is pretty impressive: the number 2 county in entire US (Ward County in North Dakota) came in with a rate of about 5 percent. Williams County came in more than twice at almost 13%.

And "we're" still way behind on housing.

Valero Adding More Hydrocracking Capacity Near Export Terminals

From RBN Energy today on Valero's plans to add more hydrocracker capacity down south:
We get the distinct feeling that there is not yet a sense of urgency among refiners to address the apparent inconsistencies between their refinery configurations, the available slate of crude and the product mix that the market requires. Given the level of activity and investment in drilling and infrastructure that we have seen in the past two years to get crude to market as well as the flurry of new terminal storage capacity and connections in refining centers, shouldn’t we be seeing more signs of activity behind refinery gates?
Nevertheless, all the evidence suggests that US refiners in general and Gulf Coast refiners in particular will have to make new investments in their refineries to take full advantage of the new crudes coming their way. If not in hydrocracker units - then in topping units that increase their capability to process very light crudes or condensates.
Valero has determined that increased hydrocracking capacity is the way to go and they have placed their bets accordingly. Now that the major pipeline investments to redirect new crude flows to market are under way, we believe the focus of industry investment will shift to addressing refinery infrastructure issues. Given the slow start so far on that investment we expect bottlenecks to shift from storage and distribution centers to refinery gates.

Wednesday Morning News & Views; Oil Up Over $2; Great RBN Essay

Active rigs: 190

Wells coming off the confidential list have been posted. QEP has another gusher in the "Helis Grail." Some mineral owners should be happy that the NDIC allowed BR to put in an overlapping unit -- it gave them the first of many great wells, but of course, we will hear from some that these overlapping units are a land grab. It all depends on one's perspective. I have no dog in that fight: I own no minerals. Newfield has two nice wells. One-half of wells coming off the confidential list went to DRL status. May was a horrendous month due to weather.

Wow! Another great essay from RBN Energy. This time on hydrocrackers. A must read.
Hydrocrackers are just one of the complex upgrading units in modern refineries. They process heavy gas oils that are yielded from  vacuum distillation units.  The hydrocracker uses a mixture of hydrogen and chemical catalysts to process the gas oils into jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline. A steam methane reformer is generally used to convert natural gas to produce the necessary hydrogen. Although hydrocrackers can be designed to produce a wide range of product yields, the output of the type of hydrocracker being built by Valero and others yields much more diesel than gasoline. The use of hydrogen in the process increases the volume of the feedstock. That means you get out 20 - 30 percent more liquids out than you put in.
Why are Valero investing in new and expanded hydrocracking units? For starters diesel has attained “most favored refined product” status of late due to increases in exports and higher prices than gasoline. The chart below shows US Gulf Coast ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD - blue line) and gasoline prices (red line) over the past three years. Diesel prices were on average $8.50/Bbl higher than gasoline over the period. Last year diesel exports from the US averaged 1MMb/d up considerably from just 138 Mb/d in 2005. Most of those exports are to Latin America where growing regional demand is combined with a lack of local refining capacity. European refining capacity has also been shrinking – with over 1 MMb/d closed or expected to close since 2008. In the circumstances US refineries have a great opportunity to max out diesel production.
Many, many story lines, including my recent post on Power Africa. 

WSJ Links

Brief today due to time constraints. Skipping to Section C (Money & Investing): oil futures rise to a 14-month high. In Section B (Marketplace), the Koch brothers are getting some attention.

This will be a great article to read later: the headline suggests exactly what I posted a couple days ago -- the headline: US backing unlikely to tip balance toward 'clean coal.' This is not a war on coal; this is a war on US utilities. King Coal will come out of this very, very nicely. This "win" by the oil companies was reported briefly yesterday; here's a longer story. Lovely.  Also, along that line, a nice obit on former Mobil CEO -- very, very interesting story.

The big story: O'BamaCare delayed. When I get time, I have a long post prepared for this story. 

Also front page: rising US oil output gives US policy makers more options. And to think, President O'Bama could have had this in his first term; it's a bit too late for him to gain much from the oil boom (in fact for him, it remains a liability; his base won't accept the oil boom). His successor will be the big winner.

And this will be fun to read: solar groups seek tea-party support.

I apologize for abbreviated posts today.

I just completed the drive from Dallas, Texas, to San Pedro (south Los Angeles), driving straight through with cat naps along the road, arriving at the neighborhood Starbucks at 7:50 a.m. -- driving through LA rush hour (an oxymoron) this morning: I-40 to I-15 to I-210 to I-605 to I-105 to I-110.

I actually pulled off the I-210 for 20 minutes to take a quick cat nap. I was starting to feel a bit tired. I never push it. I find that as soon as I feel a bit tired, a 20-minute nap is all I need sometimes.

I drove through the California desert at night to beat the heat. When I got into the valley west of  Kingman, Arizona, at 1:00 a.m. it was only 104 degrees.  The lowest it got was 94 degrees before I got to the Los Angeles metropolitan area -- then it dropped to 74 degrees (in-car thermometer).

Trivia On Naming Burlington Resources Wells; Why I Love To Blog

Way back on February 27, 2011, I noted that BR named one of their wells "Midnight Horse." The well would sit among Midnight Run and Iron Horse wells. The combination name suggested that Midnight Horse wells would fill in along the section lines between the Midnight Run and the Iron Horse wells.

Here is what I wrote more than two years ago (note that I predicted 2560-acre spacing -- wahoo):
24537, 2,842, BR, Midnight Horse 11-1MBH-ULW, Union Center, this section now has eight (8) wells sites or permits; I think this is a well on an overlapping 2560-acre spacing unit, so it can run right down the section line; watch to see if it's a 4-section spacing well; the name is interesting: Midnight Horse, a combination of "Midnight Run" and "Iron Horse"; 4-section spacing; t5/13; cum 14K 5/13;
Exactly as predicted two years ago. That's how long ago operators were moving to 2560-acre spacing.