Now We See Why Agency Reluctant To Release Cost Data On California Bullet Train -- November 4, 2015

Updates

November 26, 2015: hearings will be held in state legislature over this project cost overrun. In the original post:

Buried deep in the article we get the current "final" estimate: $71 billion from an original $27 billion -- the amount California voters were told at the time they voted to support Jerry's pet train project.

Now, in this new LA Times article, they manage to crawl back the $71 billion back to the $68 billion. 

Original Post

 

We have $30 billion, now we have $40 billion, do I hear $60 billion, can I get $80 billion?

The Auctioneer Song, Leroy Vandyke

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

The California high-speed rail authority bowed to pressure from California legislators and members of Congress late Tuesday and released a copy of a 2013 report showing a large estimated increase in the cost of building the initial segment of the bullet train project.

The report, disclosed by the Times in a story Oct. 25, said Parsons Brinckerhoff had briefed state officials in October 2013 that the projected cost of the first phase of the bullet train system had risen 31%. The state did not use the increase, however, in its 2014 business plan four months later.

A dozen members of Congress and four members of the California assembly had written to the state and to Parsons Brinckerhoff asking for disclosure of the report.

Rail authority chairman Dan Richard and CEO Jeff Morales released the document and said the cost estimates it contained are part of an iterative process and that the numbers were "preliminary, still in development and subject to review clarification and refinement." They say initial contracts have come in below budget.

"The authority under the present leadership has always been forthcoming about the costs and risks of the program," Richard said.

Buried deep in the article we get the current "final" estimate: $71 billion from an original $27 billion -- the amount California voters were told at the time they voted to support Jerry's pet train project.

The report shows that the cost of building the first segment from Burbank to Merced had grown from $27.3 billion to $35.7 billion, not including future inflation.

The state publishes most of its public cost figures with future inflation included, which would translate the cost of the initial segment from the current $31 billion to about $40 billion, based on the Parsons Brinckerhoff estimates.

The document also shows the cost of the entire project would increase by about 5%, going from $54.4 billion to $56.9 billion without inflation. If future inflation is included, based on the Parsons Brinckerhoff inflation estimates, the total project cost would go from $68 billion to more than $71 billion.