Wow! First-Time Unemployment Claims Surge; Jump Far More Than Expected; GDPNow Forecasts 2.3 GDP -- November 4, 2015

Multiple sources had inaccurate information, but this appears to be the correct numbers:

• for week ending October 31, 2015
• last week's numbers were unrevised; stand at 260,000 first time claims
• analysts generally expected an increase of 2,000 (although the range was quite wide)
• in fact, the number rose by 16,000
• the four-week average also rose to 262,750

From the various sources:

Initial jobless claims rise more than expected, from Business Insider:

Initial jobless claims climbed to 276,000 last week. Economists had forecast, according to Bloomberg, that the Department of Labor's data showed first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 262,000 last week, up 2,000 from the prior period.

The total number of claims has not topped 300,000 since March. The four-week moving average, which evens out some of the weekly volatility, rose to 262,750.

Last week's number of 260,000 was revised to 262,000. Today, the number surges 14,000 to 276,000. The rise was so much it affected the four-week average which also rose.

This increase of 16,000 was the largest since late February -- The Wall Street Journal. Note the Journal  uses the unrevised previous week figure. The WSJ says "claims were unrevised at 260,000 for the week ending October 24," at odds with Business Insider (one of them got it wrong).

The Journal also noted:

Fewer layoffs typically means hiring is picking up. But job gains have slowed in recent months, reaching 142,000 in September and 136,000 in August. That is well off the pace of around 230,000 new jobs a month on average over the past 12 months.

Can't wait to see the spin from Bloomberg and Reuters. They will highlight the fact that the total number of claims has not topped 300,000 since March. It is accurate that less than 300,000 is very, very good when one considers the magic number: a number greater than 400,000 suggests economic stagflation. But what surprises me is the magnitude by which analysts missed this one. Again.

And just yesterday, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Janet Yellen would "raise rates."

Yes, BloombergBusiness focused on the "lowest level since 1973" but noted that the most recent data showed unemployment benefits "climbed to the highest level in five weeks." BloombergBusiness also said that the previous week's numbers were not revised.

And here's where Business Insider misread/misheard/mis-reported: the previous week was not revised upward by 2,000. Rather, the expectation was that new claims would rise by 2,000. In fact, the number, as noted above, surged by 16,000.

Applications increased by 16,000 to 276,000 in the week ended Oct. 31, a Labor Department report showed Thursday. It marked the biggest advance since the end of February, while the level exceeded the Bloomberg survey median estimate of 262,000. The four-week average of claims climbed from the lowest in four decades.

Also note the discrepancy between which week they say they are reporting. Whatever.

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GDP Forecast

From GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning's Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.