Monday, October 12, 2026

Tuesday -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51933B. 

WTI: $92.52.

New wells reporting:

  • Wednesday, October 14, 2026: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 530 for the year, 
    • 42562, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia 44X-103E-N
    • 42226, conf, Whiting, Paulson 5104 44-13 3B, 
    • 41766, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 4B, 
  • Tuesday, October 13, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 527 for the year, 
    • 42561, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia 44X-10A-N, 
    • 42231, conf, Whiting, Cliffside Federal 5103 41-7 3B, 
    • 41765, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 3B, 
    • 41764, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 2B, 
    • 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, 
    • 34479, conf, Whiting, Moen 41-2-5H, 
    • 33509, conf, Whiting, Vance 44-9THF, 
    • 32932, conf, Whiting, Koala 31-2H
    • 32075, conf, Whiting, Koala 14-32HU, 
    • 24197, conf, Whiting, P Evans 154-99-2-24-18-1H, 

RBN Energy: Cenovus/Athabasca deal extends trend in Canada's booming oil sands. Link here. Archived.

Over the past 10-plus years, there’s been an extraordinary consolidation among producers in Alberta’s booming oil sands region, most of it tied to building inventory, increasing efficiency and maximizing free cash flow. Now, with Cenovus Energy’s planned multibillion-dollar acquisition of Athabasca Oil Corp., more than 90% of oil sands production — 93% to be exact — will be owned by only five companies: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL), Suncor Energy, Cenovus, Imperial Oil, and ConocoPhillips. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the recently announced deal and ask whether the golden era of M&A up north is finally petering out.

Over the past few years, we’ve blogged frequently about the Pac Man-like phenomenon of extra-large North American oil and gas producers gobbling up large competitors and becoming ever-bigger in the process. This has been especially true in the Permian Basin, the U.S.’s premier hydrocarbon play — a classic example being Pioneer Natural Resources’ $7.6 billion acquisition of Parsley Energy and $6.4 billion purchase of DoublePoint Energy (both in 2021), which were followed by ExxonMobil’s record-breaking $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer itself three years later. Other Permian producers have opted for a “ground game” — that is, foregoing splashy, big-dollar deals in favor of dozens, or even hundreds, of smaller transactions to gain heft nibble by nibble instead of gulp by gulp. (Permian Resources is a case in point; it reportedly added 30,000 net acres last year through about 700 transactions!)

Up in the Alberta oil sands, the consolidation among E&Ps we’ve all witnessed since the mid-2010s results from a combination of small, medium and large transactions — the last of these exemplified by Cenovus Energy’s October 5 announcement that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Athabasca Oil via a cash-and-stock deal valued at CAD$5.7 billion, or USD$4 billion.

The Big Picture

Before we get to the details of that transaction, though, let’s take a big-picture look at Alberta oil sands consolidation since 2015. Back then, when oil sands bitumen production from mining and thermal projects averaged less than 2.3 MMb/d, 30 producers held a working interest in one or more oil sands production areas, and the Top 5 — at that time (in order), Suncor, CNRL, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and Shell — accounted for only 68% of production. Since then, through scores of transactions, more than 20 companies have exited the oil sands (see Figure 1 below) and five new players have joined the fray.

Four New Permits -- Columbus Day -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51932B.

On Cramer just now: Cramer prefers LNG over VG.  

North Dakota state offices remain open on Columbus Day. 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $93.74.

Active rigs: 36. That's a nice jump.

Four new permits, #43398 - #43401, inclusive --

  • Operator: Phoenix Operating
  • Field: Ranch Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: 
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for four Shiv wells, SESW 12-146-99, 
      • to be sited 333 FSL and 2255 / 2345 FWL.

META: It's Not Too Late -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51932META.

META has gotten a lot of press today. But it's not too late.

META has been essentially flat for the past full 52 weeks at least compared to most of the rest.

********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • TSMC Expected To Post Sixth Consecutive Quarter Of Record Net Profit -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51931TSMC.


     TSMC's CAPEX in US dollars for calendar year 2026:

    Reminder: need to confirm but I recall that Apple's operating cash flow is $54 billion; Apple's CAPEX is $2 billion. Compare that with TSMC above.

    Market caps and P/Es:

    • TSMC: $2 trillion / 32;
    • AAPL: $5 trillion / 39.

    ********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • TSMC In Texas -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51930TSMC.

    See also, AI in Texas.