Friday, December 27, 2024

The Coming Economic Boom -- The Roaring Twenties -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44553THEROARINGTWENTIES.

Note: The Great Gatsy was published April 10, 1925. 

This might be as good a time as any to re-read a Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom, 1922 to 1929; and, then re-read The Great Gatsby (or watch the movie).

For me, one rendition of the Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom in the 20s: 

The postwar recession that had rocked [William Randolph] Hearst's business empire and made life so difficult for [his accountant] Jim Moore, who had to pay the bills -- was as short-lived as it had been severe.

By 1922, the American economy had embarked upon an extraordinary seven-year growth cycle. 

The business boom was stimulated by the beneficent tax policy that President Warren Harding's secretary of the treasury, the Pittsburgh industrialist Andrew Mellon, shepherded through a Republican-dominated Congress. 

Maximum tax rates for individuals were reduced from a wartime high of 77 percent to 24 percent, excess profits taxes were abolished, and lower rates were set for capital gains. Hearst benefited additionally when Secretary Mellon's appointees at the Income Tax Bureau reduced his tax liabilities for the war by by $1,737,097. 

Taking full advantage of the economic boom and Republican tax policies, Hearst went on a buying spree... two evening papers and a morning paper ... another evening paper in 1922 ... and then started three new dailies ...

Hearst, who never paid cash for anything, borrowed recklessly to make each of these purchases. by the end of 1922, he had exhausted his working capital to pay off existing debt obligations and was still a half million dollars short of meeting them all.

If you had not guessed, that was from The Chief: The Life of William Randolph Hearst, David Nasaw, c.2000, p. 315. 

2025: And So It Begins -- The Bow Wave -- The "Peak-65 Zone" -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44552BOWWAVE.

Record wave of new 65-year-olds in 2025. 

Link here. 

This is a huge story, but to some extent, they're jumping the gun. 

Yes, 2025 may be the  leading edge of the bow way of Baby Boomers moving into retirement, but because the age for mandatory RMDs from retirement accounts -- to include the federal government's "401(k)" -- the Thrift Savings Program -- which includes postal carriers and the military -- has now been delayed to age 67 and in a few years to age 70 -- even bigger sums of money will be moving out of retirement accounts two years from now. [Also, with regard to Social Security, the age of 67 is more important than the age of 65.]

From the lede:

About 4.2 million people in the U.S. are forecast to cross that age threshold next year.
This could represent the height of what is termed the “peak 65” zone, a period of years from 2024 to 2027 in which more than 4.1 million will hit that age level each year.
For financial-services firms, that likely means more demand for investments that can help people close the income gap they expect from not working.
That can be as simple as putting their cash into higher-yielding vehicles, such as money-market funds. Already, investors’ close attention to cash yields is a challenge for banks and brokers accustomed to supercheap deposits.

The phrase "... that can help people close the income gap they expect from not working" caught my attention. Any financial advisor that writes that is also the financial advisor that will recommend a traditional IRA over a Roth IRA .

There is a number of those reaching the "peak 65" zone over the next four years that won't need the RMD income to close the income gap once they stop working. I haven't seen the number or the percent of folks that fall into that category but I'll bet it's not trivial. 

Many folks in the "peak 65" zone will have more disposable income than when they were working. 

[By the way, this may help explain the huge build in money market funds, another topic about which I find little explanation on the business pages of newspapers. But that's a story for another day.]

A lot of those folks will take cruises but a lot of the won't. A lot will plow there RMDs right back into investments, and to the best of my knowledge the only completely tax-free investment is the "529." 

I didn't find the article particularly useful but at least someone is starting to write about the "peak 65" zone.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here.  

Update On The BNSF Bridge, Missouri River, Bismark - Mandan, North Dakota -- February 27, 2024

Locator: 44551TRAIN.

Update on the BNSF bridge across the Missouri River, Bismarck-Mandan.  


Two other links:

  • February 9, 2024: lead lawyer, William Delmore, despite the North Dakota Supreme Court ruling, plans to press on. Link here.
  • May 30, 2024: obituary, William Delmore, Minnesota.

Map / graphic: Google, c. 2024, o/w undated:

US Homelessness -- Another One Of Biden's Legacies -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44550BIDEN.

Along with his pardons and spending now we have this:

On the other hand, this is a pretty interesting metric. It must drive Ms Jennifer Granholm nuts. LOL. Link here:

Virginia -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44549VIRGINIA.

Link here. Or direct to the EIA site.