Grapevine Lake, Texas -- Summer, 2022

Isn't this a great photo?

We had another record-setting high temperature day here in DFW, 109°F, today. The Texas grid, ERCOT, easily held. There were no requests by the ERCOT authorities for folks to conserve electricity. 

I spent almost all day in the pool. Crystal clear water and quite cool. 

Inflation, Again -- July 19, 2022

Updates

July 20, 2022: housing market in free fall. Or not.

Original Post 

Whenever I see stories about high inflation here in the states, I keep coming back to this graph:

I was reminded of that when I came across this today (link: https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1549346241737379843):

I now follow Lance Roberts.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May-Over-April, 2022

Folks who think they "know" the Bakken may want to spend some time on this one.

I would be curious if anyone can explain this.

Assuming I did all the math correctly and that's a huge assumption, but look at this:

The number of wells offline for operational reasons:

• May, 2022: 2,944
• April, 2022: 2,403
• so, in May, month-over-month, there was an increase of 541 wells taken off line
• those 541 wells represents an INCREASE of wells taken off line by almost 25%
• got that? 25% more wells were off line in May than in April. Twenty-five percent.

The number of producing wells:

• May, 2022: 16,953
• April, 2022: 16,896
• in other words, month-over-month, May-over-April, the number of producing wells increased by 57
• as a percentage, that was an increase of 0.3%. Not 30%. Not 3%. Not even one percent, but a third of one percent.

Now, take a look at this:

• oil production, month-over-month, May-over-April increased by 17%. Seventeen percent.
• natural gas production, month-over-month, May-over April increased by 14%. Fourteen percent.

Anyone want to hazard a guess. 

I'll discuss it later.

It's not rocket science. Again, assuming I did the math correctly.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May - April, 2022

Most recent "dashboard" for the Bakken:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf

Production change, month-over-month:

Oil:

• April, 2022: 905,357bbls / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 1,058,721
• delta, bopd: 153,364
  
• delta, percent: up 17%
  
• revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls
  

Gas production and capture:

• April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
• delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 14%

Now compare that data with wells offline for operational reasons for the past three months:

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

May, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

Update Of Wells Offline For Operational Reasons -- July 19, 2022

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

February, 2022:

• inactive: 1,872
• DUCS: 463
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,335
• producing: 16,746