Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Notes From All Over -- December 8, 2021

1. First group "financial / economic" indicators:

2. AAPL market cap -- $2.872 billion.

  • 2.872 x = 3 * 175
  • (3*175)/2.872 = x
  • x = 183
3. ISO NE: link here. At 10:34 p.m. ET, prices spiking to $125 MWh.
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Devon: $10,000 Bonuses -- December 8, 2021

Link here. 

Devon Energy Corp.’s rank-and-file workers are in for a surprise holiday treat: $10,000 bonus checks. 

In the latest sign that boom times are back for the U.S. oil patch, Devon told its 1,600 employees on Tuesday that workers below the vice president level will be getting the unexpected cash, CEO Rick Muncrief said in an interview. The bonuses are a reward for successfully integrating with WPX Energy Inc. after the companies agreed to merge last year, Muncrief said.

I keep forgetting that all the Devon shares I own came from years of accumulating WPX. Pretty funny.

And I got WPX from a WMB spin-off years before that. 

I wonder what comes next.

**********************************
How OPEC+ Regained Control Of The Oil Markets
During Brandon's Watch

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova:

Summary:

  • The combination of strategic petroleum releases from major oil importers and the discovery of a new Covid variant sent oil prices crashing last week 
  • There was plenty of pressure on OPEC+ to cancel its planned production increase on the back of that bearish news 
  • By sticking to its guns but ensuring markets that it would intervene if necessary, OPEC+ was able to regain control of the oil market.

Major SPR releases weren't from just major oil importers -- the US led the campaign to release crude oil from the SPRs. The new Covid variant was a one-week story. So far. 

From the linked article:

Last week’s decision from the alliance may have brought down a notch or two the tension with the U.S. Administration, but it also reminded the U.S. shale patch who is in charge of the oil market, just as American oil producers are drafting their capital budgets for 2022. 
U.S. oil firms are set to increase production next year, but they may not spend too much on new drilling activity, with oil slipping to $70 from $80 a barrel in just a few days and Omicron still creating uncertainty about demand.

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Slawson Reports Two DUCs Completed; Thirteen Permits Renewed; Ovintiv With Three New Permits; Enerplus With One New Permit -- December 8, 2021

Mind the gap: link here.

The estimated copper shortfall by 2030 looks even worse.

AMD / XLNX acquisition: one more milestone reached.

  • tea leaves: announcement that deal is closed will be early next week, maybe Monday
    • 1.7234
    • AMD up slightly at the close; down a bit after hour -- $145.24 --> $250 implied for XLNC
    • XLNX up 0.4% at the close; up 0.25% after hours -- $225
  • back of the envelope
    • delta: $250 - $225 = $25 / XLNX share
    • some assume, I suppose, after it's announced that the deal closes, AMD drops a big and XLNX jumps a bit
    • 25/2 = 12.50
    • 145.24 - 12.50 = $132.75
    • 1.7234 * $132.75 = $228 / sh XLNX
    • $132.75 / sh AMD

King of LNG: US to beat Qatar at its own game: link to Tsvetana Paraskova. A reader said as much just a couple of days ago. EIA forecast for el fin de 2022:

  • US: 11.4 bcf/d
  • Australia: 11.4 bcf/d
  • Qatar: 10.3 bcf/d

WTI: continues to creep up; up 31 cents today; now at $72.36.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Flaring targets: link here. 

Active rigs:

$72.36
12/8/202112/08/202012/08/201912/08/201812/08/2017
Active Rigs2916556453

Four new permits, #38690 - #38693, inclusive:

  • Operators: Ovintiv (Newfield) (3; Enerplus
  • Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Heart Butte (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has a permit for a Lob well in SWSE 31-149-92; 
      • to be sited 829 FSL and 2084 FEL, part of the "Tennis" pad?
    • Ovintive has permits for three Clear Creek Federal wells in SESW 36-152-97; 
      • the wells will be sited 295 FSL and between 2529 FWL and 2489 FWL; 

Thirteen permits renewed;

  • CLR (6): two Berlain permits in McKenzie County; two Olympia and two Charleston permits, all in Williams County
  • MRO (6): all in Dunn County -- Sallie USA, OTT USA, Ellis USA, CHdester USA, Borrud USA, and Bean USA;
  • BR: one Hawktail permit in Dunn County

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37423, 1,263, Slawson, Tempest Federal 2-14H, Big Bend; how coincidental: I noticed the wells were starting to produce earlier to today and posted here;
  • 37424, 294, Slawson, Orca Federal 3-23-26H, Big Bend, first production, 10/21; t--; cum --;
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Don't Judge A Book By The Cover; Don't Judge A Well By Its IP -- Not An Atypical BR Well -- December 8, 2021

The well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202131126911275976662396223518327
BAKKEN9-20213022121222221150642310392422940
BAKKEN8-20213124329242361519239010367972083
BAKKEN7-20213127754276961542241713399721598
BAKKEN6-2021302370423719154593410033263713
BAKKEN5-20213123760238091761236695351291436
BAKKEN4-20213019607196251707428578284680
BAKKEN3-2021311046810271736714644145690
BAKKEN2-202121008707000
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Remember When? December 8, 2021

Remember when we thought Hess could never get a great Bakken well. That's all changed. Actually that changed some years go. Hess is now drilling some nice Bakken wells. Exhibit A, look at the IP:

  • 36532, 5,780, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 139K in 3.5 months; huge; initial production extrapolates to 74K over 30 days; cum 374K 10/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021315370536938752041720286131
BAKKEN9-2021305954597943581966219535127
BAKKEN8-20213174727458707525910248371073
BAKKEN7-20212873937354570426245249361309
BAKKEN6-202119509451323864164501639852
BAKKEN5-20213187688760686226605254371168
BAKKEN4-20213093059274656125798241571641
BAKKEN3-20213194489415616028973270161957
BAKKEN2-20212663956453421814881135281353
BAKKEN1-2021311262012612724831564287412823
BAKKEN12-20202995779713564130483274833000
BAKKEN11-20203020139201474259238761343154446
BAKKEN10-20203127414272167716146624413315293
BAKKEN9-202064337453814419881274151397
BAKKEN8-20203132927329036996945468392226246
BAKKEN7-20203131988319567238755152466858467
BAKKEN6-20203030208302526964449219419207299
BAKKEN5-20201639465392411757444043370746969
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