The Incredible Williston Basin; A Couple Of Madison Wells Each With More than 3 Million Bbls Crude 0il Cumulative -- September 22, 2021

Re-posting.

I hate it when these incredible stories get lost in the shuffle.

True Oil, LLC, has another permit for a Red Wing Creek Madison well, permit #38575 (no scout ticket yet). Incredibly inexpensive to drill (vertical wells) and inexpensive to complete (not fracked).

Red Wing Creek:

• in section 27-148-101: approximately twelve vertical wells; these are Madison wells;
• #38575 will be located near:
• 13590, IA/239, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27, t8/94; cum 275K 6/21; off line 7/21;
• 5260, 396, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 33-27, t2/74; cum 3.533689 million bbls 7/21; forty-seven years old;
  
• 5323, 917, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 42-27, t11/73; cum 3.316674 million bbls 7/21; forty-eight years old;
  
• 15417, 94, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 43-27, t8/03; cum 245K 7/21;

Slawson With Three New Permits; WTI Closes At $72 -- September 22, 2021

ISO NE: spiked to $96 / MWh today. Link here. It's autumn: neither heating nor a/c should be much of an issue. It looks like "they" imported expensive hydro-electricity from Canada to make up the shortfall.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: NDIC is no long posting the number of active rigs in North Dakota. This is my best estimate:

$71.99	9/22/2021	09/22/2020	09/22/2019	09/22/2018	09/22/2017
Active Rigs	26	11	58	66	58

Four new permits, #38575 - #38578, inclusive:

• Operators: Slawson (3); True Oil, LLC
• Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Red Wing Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• True Oil has a permit for a Red Wing Creek well, it will be sited in SWNE 27-148-101, 1447 FNL and 2378 FEL
• Slawson has permits for three wells: a Howitzer, a Lightning Federal, and a Rainmaker Federal; all three, despite their name differences, will be sited in SWSE 24-152-93; they will be sited 325 FSL and between 426 FWL and 326 FWL;

Red Wing Creek:

• in section 27-148-101: approximately twelve vertical wells; these are Madison wells;
• #38575 will be located near:
• 13590, IA/239, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27, t8/94; cum 275K 6/21; off line 7/21;
• 5260, 396, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 33-27, t2/74; cum 3.533689 million bbls 7/21; forty-seven years old;
  
• 5323, 917, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 42-27, t11/73; cum 3.316674 million bbls 7/21; forty-eight years old;
  
• 15417, 94, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 43-27, t8/03; cum 245K 7/21;

Notes From All Over -- The Epic Apple Edition -- September 22, 2021

First things first: DUC data in the Bakken posted at this link. 

Coal: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

• expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
• is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
• this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
• the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
• remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
• supply decline driven by two factors:
• inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
• the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
• much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia
  

Crude in storage: tea leaves suggest US crude oil storage including SPR will hit the 2010 - 2014 average. Link here.  

Crude oil demand: will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022 -- COP/CEO. 

Six-month high: a rounding error, perhaps, but with a straight face Tsvetana Paraskova can say Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose to its highest volume in six months, link here:

• exports rose above six million bpd in July, 2021
• exports hit 6.327 million bpd in July,
• in June? averaged 5.965 million bpd
• delta: 360,000 bpd (a third of Bakken daily production
• this sort of makes sense: as Saudi's summer domestic demand decreases, Saudi can export more oil even without producing any more crude oil 
• in other words: a non-story as far as Saudi production goes
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

AAPL: up $2.58. One of the best days ever.

But best from Apple, Inc, today: despite court's ruling, Apple won't allow Epic back in the App Store anytime soon. 

At the link, read the comments. I've never seen unanimity on any issue as this one. Truly amazing. I thought everyone reading MacRumors hated Apple; they may, but they all hate Epic and Fortnite even more. The conditions that Apple set for re-instating Epic in the App Store following the court ruling means that it can't happen for about one hundred years. 

Facebook: sinks on Apple ad-tracking warning. Down four percent.

Fedex: worst performer in S&P 500 today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The September Swoon -- September 22, 2021

The Fed, first out of the chute:

• I don't think I've heard more transparency from a politician
  
• even after such a plain-spoken speech, reporters still asked questions that were answered in the prepared remarks
• most disappointing: some questions were asked three times
• Steve Liesman actually said the question he asked was asked three times
  
• immediately after the remarks and Q&A, CNBC seemed to try to make Powell seem more bearish than he might have been
  
• analysts say they need to read the transcript
• consensus:
• Fed will announce beginning of taper next month (November, 2021)
• it will take a "good" jobs report to make that announcement
• the bar is low for a "good" jobs report
  
• begin taper the following month (December, 2021)
• complete taper by June, 2022; this simply means ending buying -- at least that's how I heard it -- doesn't mean start selling -- but then I may have misunderstood this
• raising rates: won't begin until taper ends
• first rate hike: no earlier than 3Q21 and we're only talking a quarter of a percent
• reappointment of Jay Powell; of course, it was never discussed, but allowing Fed members to buy shares in same companies that the Fed was buying is a huge weapon for those who want Powell removed
• what did "the market" think? LOL. The market loved it. One could literally watch the Dow move up during he prepared remarks
• if the market drops before the market closes: profit taking
  

For the archives:

• Dow up: 385 points; had been as much as 500 points up
• S&P 500: up 50 points
• NASDAQ: up 122 points

Can't wait to listen to Jim Cramer later this afternoon. 

Just Finished LIsenting To Jay Powell -- September 22, 2021