It is simply amazing -- at least to me -- the "wide divide" between headlines and the actual story.
But be that as it may, I'll be off the net much of the day, due to family commitments. But, wow, I'm in a great mood.
I even have personal updates on grilling Teres major and Amazon if I don't forget.
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
All Over The News Yesterday -- Texas Covid-19 Cases Surge -- In Fact, The Numbers Reported Surged, The Number Of Cases Did Not -- June 17, 2020
Updates
June 17, 2020: This was the headline story today. See explanation in original post.
Original Post
The report, the numbers, the graphics looked a bit suspicious. There's a reason.
From the PalestineHerald:
Anderson County, overnight, increased the official number of COVD-19 cases nearly 10-fold, reaching 989 cases.
Tuesday's surge put Anderson County 18th among the state's 250 counties for COVID-19 cases, county Judge Robert Johnston said Tuesday.
What's going on?
It's simple: The state has decided to start counting COVID-19 prison cases in the county where the prison is located. Previously, prison cases went on a separate tally under the Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
“I don't really care how it's counted,” Johnston said. “I just want to know what the rules are. We had 103; now it's 989.”
Without numbers from Anderson County's five prisons, the county on Tuesday reported 103 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Of those, 79 – or 76 percent – have recovered. The county also has reported no COVID-related deaths.
Anderson County's five prisons totaled 886 confirmed cases, including two deaths. Two of the prisons – Beto and Michael – accounted for 733 of the confirmed inmate cases of COVID-19.So, where is Anderson County? What prisons?
- out in the middle of nowhere but part of the Dallas/Fort Worth DMA
- located 130 miles southeast of DFW; or 100 miles almost directly east of Waco, TX
- population: under 60,000
- county seat: Palestine
- the state operates four prisons and a transfer facility in the county
From wiki, a bit of political trivia:
Anderson is a strongly Republican county, voting Republican in every election since 1980 (as of 2016). The county last voted Democratic in 1976, when Jimmy Carter won 57% of the county's votes. Hillary Clinton managed to win just 19.8% of the vote in the county, the least of any presidential candidate since at least 1960.The other major population centers in Texas showed no dramatic change in overall numbers. If there were dramatic changes, one might want to check the state and federal prison stats. Just saying.
Only nine states in the US have fewer Wuhan-flu-related deaths per capita than Texas, to include: Arkansas, Idaho, WV, Utah, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.
Nine Wells Yet To Report -- June 17, 2020
First things first: retail sales in May surge. Gasoline prices were very, very low.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
AAPL: up $9/yesterday. It appears AAPL will add a bit more at the open; could set yet another all-time high. Target is now $400. I always find it interesting that so often, immediately after the "Fed" meeting the market plunges, and then 24 hours later, all is forgotten and the market moves up again. Last week, again. The "Fed" remains unchanged, but the Dow plummets 1,800 points, but a week later it's all forgotten.
Home sales: housing starts total 974,000 in May vs 1.095 million expected.
Home sales: mortgage demands spike to 11-year high, as rates hit another record low.
Target: minimum wage raised to $15/hour.
EIA weekly petroleum report: I will likely be off-line most of the day due to family commitments. I may be delayed reporting this. Link here.
Natural gas: US production efficiency continued to improve in 2019. The Haynesville growth is incrdible, especially considering this is a mature field.
OPEC badsket: $35.09. Ouch. OPEC as the number at $36.75. Link here.
Active rigs:
Nine wells yet to report:
Wednesday, June 17, 2020: 41 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 413 for the year:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
AAPL: up $9/yesterday. It appears AAPL will add a bit more at the open; could set yet another all-time high. Target is now $400. I always find it interesting that so often, immediately after the "Fed" meeting the market plunges, and then 24 hours later, all is forgotten and the market moves up again. Last week, again. The "Fed" remains unchanged, but the Dow plummets 1,800 points, but a week later it's all forgotten.
Home sales: housing starts total 974,000 in May vs 1.095 million expected.
Home sales: mortgage demands spike to 11-year high, as rates hit another record low.
- Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 4% last week from the previous week and were a remarkable 21% higher than a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- That was the ninth consecutive week of gains and the highest volume in more than 11 years.
- The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.30% from 3.38%.
- $1,408 / month vs $1,375/month on $500,000 first year.
EIA weekly petroleum report: I will likely be off-line most of the day due to family commitments. I may be delayed reporting this. Link here.
Natural gas: US production efficiency continued to improve in 2019. The Haynesville growth is incrdible, especially considering this is a mature field.
OPEC badsket: $35.09. Ouch. OPEC as the number at $36.75. Link here.
***********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $37.74 | 6/17/2020 | 06/17/2019 | 06/17/2018 | 06/17/2017 | 06/17/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 13 | 62 | 62 | 57 | 28 |
Nine wells yet to report:
Wednesday, June 17, 2020: 41 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 413 for the year:
- 36234, conf, Whiting, Lidseth 11-1H,
- 36074, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29MBH,
- 37214, conf, CLR, Burian 3-27H1,
- 36878, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 40-31 4TFH,
- 36075, conf, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29TFH,
- 36879, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XE 1TFH, Alger,
- 36076, conf, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29MBH, Corral Creek,
- None.
- 37193, conf, CLR, Wiley 14-25HSL, Pershing,
- 35959, conf, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-2XH, Sanish,
March’s crude oil price crash hit the E&P sector like a tsunami, shattering capital and operating budgets, upending drilling plans, and eviscerating equity valuations. The initial responses by producers to the price collapse included a flood of capex reductions, corporate belt-tightening, and scattered production shut-ins. But first-quarter earnings reports issued in late April and early May provided the first detailed insight into the financial wreckage the crisis unleashed on U.S. E&Ps.
It wasn’t pretty.
The plunge in the WTI oil price to $20/bbl at the end of the first quarter triggered a combined $60 billion in impairments of oil and gas reserves across the 41 E&Ps we track, as well as a 16% decline in average revenue per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) from the pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019. More trouble may be ahead: the average oil price in the second quarter is on track for a 35% decline from the first quarter, which will dramatically impact the cash flows that allow companies to pay their staff, keep the lights on, and hold creditors at bay. Today, we analyze the first-quarter earnings results of our representative sample of U.S. producers and take a look forward to the potential effect of lower pricing on second-quarter earnings.
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Saudi Arabia's Plan To Flood The US With Oil Was Successful -- But The Kingdom's Plan Backfired -- June 16. 2020
Updates
June 19, 2020: how Saudi Arabia caused the worst oil price crash in history; link here.
Later, 2:27 p.m. CT: see comments. Reader refers us to WSJ article regarding OPEC demand forecast:
The global oil market is slowly starting to rebalance thanks to production cuts and relaxing coronavirus lockdowns, but the industry is still swimming in excess supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday, June 17, 2020.
In its widely scrutinized monthly report, OPEC left unchanged its forecasts that the world’s demand for crude will fall by 9.1 million barrels a day in 2020 and plunge by 17.3 million barrels a day in the second quarter.
“Following an unprecedented and highly turbulent [first half of 2020] due to the enormous impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and oil market fundamentals, the dust is starting to settle,” the cartel said in its report.
The lifting of pandemic-motivated restrictions and monetary stimulus potentially amounting to a quarter of global gross domestic product will allow global growth to rebound in the second half of the year, and the oil sector with it, OPEC said.
Original Post
This is a very, very interesting analysis.
Graphics:
Bottom line: the Saudi attempt to flood the US with oil was successful; but Saudi's plan backfired.
Link here. The article in its entirety is also posted here.
After flooding the U.S. with crude earlier this year, Saudi Arabia has all but cut off the taps to the American oil market.
The kingdom has exported just one cargo to the U.S. so far in June, equivalent to about 133,000 barrels a day.
That’s about one-tenth of the 1.3 million barrels a day it shipped in April, when Riyadh flooded the global market during a brief price war against Russia.
If the low pace of exports is sustained in the second half of the month, U.S. imports of Saudi crude could drop to the lowest level in 35 years, helping the American crude market re-balance.
“Saudi oil arrivals will fall just as domestic refiners will start raising runs and domestic production continues to decline,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “U.S. refiners will have to import from elsewhere and run down stocks,” she added.
To be sure, several Saudi tankers haven’t yet indicated their final destinations, so the final tally into the U.S. could be a tad higher. Yet, the trend so far in June is unmistakable: the deluge of Saudi oil that threatened to overwhelm American refiners is dwindling.
Saudi oil industry officials, speaking privately, say the kingdom is unlikely to boost shipments into the U.S. in the second half of the month and into July. By slashing U.S. crude exports, the Saudis can influence the most highly visible oil market in the world as American customs data allow for near real-time monitoring of shipments. Less Saudi petroleum is likely to reduce the closely watched American crude stockpiles, amplifying the price impact.
The recent inundation of Saudi crude in the U.S. is largely the lingering effect of a price war earlier this year. For much of 2019 and early 2020, Saudi Arabia shipped relatively little crude into America, with average arrivals running at about 475,000 barrels a day, according to U.S. government data. But that changed in April, when Riyadh opened the taps after failing to reach an agreement with its OPEC+ partners to cut production.
Saudi crude takes about 45 days to reach the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. West Coast, so the impact of the April export flood wasn’t felt until late May and early June, when U.S. imports of Saudi crude jumped to about 1.5 million barrels a day. As the Saudi tankers unloaded their cargo, U.S. crude stocks climbed to a record high, putting pressure on oil benchmarks.
In early April, once the devastation wrought by the coronavirus on oil demand became evident, the OPEC+ alliance set aside its differences, embarking on record output cuts. Riyadh cut oil shipments to the U.S. to 645,000 barrels a day in May, tanker-tracking data show. That drop would become apparent in the second half of June and early July as the vessels arrive on U.S. coasts.
The further export drop in the first half of June would become apparent in the second half of July. As of June 10, the U.S. had received almost 10 million barrels of Saudi crude, compared with 16.9 million barrels for all of June last year, according to U.S. Customs data by Bloomberg and figures from the Energy Information Administration.
This declining trend is set to continue.
Most American refiners nominated to take less supply than their respective contracted volumes for July loading. The development comes as the latest official selling prices for Saudi crude are now at the highest level since the kingdom’s price war with Russia in March. Record high domestic crude inventories may also have diminished interest. In addition to slashing U.S. shipments, the kingdom this month has curbed exports to China to about 1.3 million barrels a day through June 15, compared with almost 2 million on average in May. Exports to India and Japan have increased so far this month, however.
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