35422, SI/NC, MRO, Esther USA 21-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 44K over 13 days extrapolates to 102K over 30 days;
Production data, note the flaring:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
12-2019
13
44094
43578
30151
48238
0
45200
From the file report:
middle Bakken
FracFocus, 33-061-04286:
fracked 11/19/19 - 12/5/19
7.6 million gallons of water; 88.1 percent water by mass
Older neighboring wells:
18434, 621, MRO, Wakelum 21-3H, Reunion Bay, t5/10; cum 333K 12/19; back on line after being off line for about a year; recent production unremarkable;
21750, 2,084, MRO, Wakelum 31-3TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/12; cum 373K 12/19; steady Eddy; unremarkable;
21369, IA/1,737, MRO, Wakelum 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t4/12; cum 342K 12/19; off line 8/19; remains off line 12/19;
Bird-watching: cedar waxwing in backyard, north Texas (DFW area). I don't know the waxwings well enough to know which type of waxwing. I need to find them some berries. The woodpeckers love the suet but I don't have anything special for the cedar waxwings
McDonald's: this is really getting bizarre -- how much mopping, scrubbing they are doing. And now they are painting -- touching up really, really small marks. This is almost bizarre. And the owner-manager (?) is still inspecting, inspecting. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of employees are looking for new jobs. This owner-manager (?) is clearly master of his own domain.
Note: As soon as the EIA weekly petroleum report is posted, I'm signing off for the day.
35423, SI/NC, MRO, Doris USA 21-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
35422, SI/NC, MRO, Esther USA 21-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 44K over 13 days extrapolates to 102K over 30 days;see this note;
35253, 532, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 11B, Banks, t8/19; cum 86K 12/19;
From yesterday, Tuesday, February 26, 2020:
35830, 509, CLR, Imsland 5-31H1, Hamlet, t9/19; cum 51K 12/19;
35829, 538, CLR, Imsland 4-31H, Hamlet, t9/19; cum 38K 12/19;
35421, drl, MRO, Beatrice USA 31-15TFH, Reunion Bay, produced 37K over 14 days, extrapolates to 80K over 30 days;
33424, drl, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, no production data;
RBN Energy: School of Energy, announcement.
It’s almost Spring 2020 and energy markets are making another turn.
Prices have been clobbered by a combination of low, weather-related
demand and COVID-19. Tight capital markets have the E&P sector
hunkered down and the pace of production growth is slowing. But at the
same time, new pipelines out of the Permian and Bakken are under
construction; some are already ramping up flows. Long-delayed LNG
terminals and NGL-consuming petrochemical plants are coming online.
Essentially all growth in crude and gas — plus most incremental NGL
production — is being exported to global markets, and those markets are
pushing back. All this has huge implications for commodity flows,
infrastructure utilization and price relationships for oil, natural gas
and NGLs. Which means that it’s time for RBN’s School of Energy, with
all of our curriculum and models updated for the realities of today’s
energy markets. Today — in a blatant advertorial — we’ll examine our
upcoming School of Energy and explain why this time around we are
concentrating even more than usual on NGLs.
What a difference a year makes. In February 2019, Henry Hub natural
gas averaged $2.68/MMBtu and the forward curve anticipated a price of
$3.09 for February 2020. LNG exports were expected to come on strong,
lifting gas out of the doldrums. Oops. The average price of natural gas
so far this month has been $1.86/MMBtu, down 30% from last year. A year
ago, the WTI Cushing crude oil forward curve pegged February 2020 crude
at $57.50/bbl, but here we sit at $49.90/bbl. Mont Belvieu propane at
this time last year averaged 67 c/gal, while so far this year it has
languished at 39 c/gal, down 42% over the past 12 months. Of course, it
is no surprise that such a huge shift in prices should impact production
and flows, and that’s just what has been happening. Production growth
is slowing to a crawl. Pipelines that were counting on more volumes from
producers are scrambling to attract flows to their systems. And
exports, last year’s undisputed savior of U.S. markets, are now being
threatened by a wild card right out of science fiction: the threat of a
global pandemic.
Note: this was done quickly. It was not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors. There is nothing about the Bakken in this note. This is not ready for prime time. It is as close to stream of consciousness that I might come. I might clean this up later, but probably not. I will probably add stuff as the night goes on. But I'm not sure I will spend much time on this.
I'm still re-reading Vincent Bugliosi's book on the JFK assassination. The current environment of "fake news" puts that whole Dallas event in perspective. And I'm getting ready to enjoy octopus / cucumber salad.
If you haven't heard, this is quite remarkable.
Dr Nancy Messonnier.
Rod Rosenstein.
Dr Nancy, earlier today:
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the agency’s director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press briefing on Tuesday that the time for Americans to begin preparing for a potential outbreak of the virus is now, although officials believe the immediate threat to the public remains low.
“As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder,” Messonnier said. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of when this will happen, and how many people in this country will have severe illness.”
The market opened "green," then plunged almost 1,000 points after Dr Nancy Messonnier spoke.
Rod Rosenstein: caught up in the Comey scandal. He has one sister, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
And no who "discovered" this -- literally on the fly? Rush Limbaugh.
Meanwhile, coronavirus status, four statistics to follow:
growth factor trending down (good)
total deaths, change in total, day-over-day, down to an incredible 2% -- incredibly good news;
daily deaths, change in daily, day-over-day, another day of "negative" change -- again, incredibly good news;
by country; not one new country reported any new deaths; China reported 52 new deaths (and they would all be near "ground zero"); and, South Korea reported one new death, but other than that, the chart is "empty" / all white. Italy? No new deaths. Iran? No new deaths. But South Korea, one new death. Wow.
All we have to fear is fear itself.
Incredibly good news but the mainstream media will report this ad nauseum in worst light possible.
I think this is incredibly fascinating.
Why are the masks working? The virus is way smaller than the pores in these masks, but they are working? Why? [And yes, I do "know" the answer; there is an explanation.] [Later: scroll to the bottom of this post.]
Will the virus burn itself out, "naturally," before there is a vaccine?
Is this a bio experiment gone awry in Wuhan?
The Chinese physician who first called attention to this died? Is he the only physician that has died of Covid-19? Exactly what were the circumstances of his death? How many other physicians have died? I haven't heard of any others.
How did a "country physician" come up with the cause of this brand new infectious disease, seemingly overnight? Explanations for most unexplained cases like this are preceded by four articles in the Lancet, two articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, and a breakthrough article in Nature. But in this case, no research articles, but simply a "country doctor" discovering the cause. And then he's dead; within days. Shoot, the incubation period is two weeks. Jeffrey Epstein did not hang himself.
Many, many more questions. The questions fall into two categories. The first category is for Sherlock Holmes to answer: where/how/why/when did the virus appear. I think there is enough circumstantial evidence for Sherlock to start working some theories. In fact, my hunch is that Sherlock Holmes would have already sorted this out. It's too bad Richard Feynman is no longer with us. He, too, would have it figured out. Algore, the inventor of the internet and discoverer of global warming -- I'm surprised we haven't heard from him.
The second category, the public health angle, which is now the "only" medical angle: if you were "king/queen for a day" and could institute your plan to control this infectious disease how/what would you do? What policies would you dictate?
To be continued.
I Put A Spell On You, Nina Simone
************************************
For Investors, Not Traders
As an investor who does not depend on current investments to survive and with a long term horizon (30 years), I'm hoping the market has at least another two weeks of trending down. Talk about a buying opportunity. I cannot hope to buy shares of Disney at their lowest, but I can certainly buy Disney at a better price today than I could buy those shares two weeks ago.
But, hey, wasn't that a hoot?
"I'm outta here. Not tomorrow, not next week, but today, before I leave the office to go home. I'm done." And Bob Iger left Disney just like that. Has anybody of his stature ever left the corner office with such short public notice (like, "no" public notice)?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
********************************
Wedge Issues
Everyone watching the Democrat debates notes there are eight seven, exactly eight seven, wedge issues, to include:
free college tuition / all debt paid off;
a huge, huge wealth tax;
and, six five more.
The one wedge issue I cannot even begin to identify with is free college tuition / all debt paid off.
We've discussed this before. It's a non-issue for the nation. It's an issue for a few college graduates, but it's a non-issue for the nation. Not one US college graduate complaining about student debt has my sympathy. He/she should consider himself/herself incredibly fortunate. I'm not sure Ill-hand Omar could identify with such indebted college students, based on her own history.
*********************************
South Carolina Debate
I did not see the debate.
I am watching the analysis by MSNBC and Fox News. I gave up on MSNBC; Bret Baier is doing great. After forty minutes, I gave up on even the analysis.
In post-debate analysis, Bernie Sanders got the most attention. Klobuchar and Buttigieg got much attention. Bloomberg a little attention; Biden about as much as Bloomberg. Most surprising? Steyer got no attention in the post-analysis on either cable "channel."
Drudge voters:
Sanders wins at 30%
Bloomberg places at 20%
Klobuchar shows at 16%
Biden at 11%;
Butti-who at 10%;
Steyer at 10%; how unimportant is Steyer? to the best of my knowledge President Trump has not given him a nickname;
Warren at 4%; can't even round up to 5%; stumbled at the gate; never got past the first turn;
Or as Bob Iger might suggest:
Grumpy
a real dwarf
Happy
Dopey and/or Sleepy
Doc
Curella de Vil
So far, 99,000 folks have voted over at Drudge. Only 14,000 people voted in the Nevada caucuses this past Saturday. Something to think about.
Drudge needs to do a second poll: how many folks voted for a debate winner but actually never watched the debate itself. LOL. It appears the millennial crowd is all in -- voting over at Drudge.
The bigger story: if the debate foreshadows the DNC convention, and I think it does, "Katie, bar the doors."
***************************************
Tokyo Olympics
One word: toast.
****************************
Back to Masks
Earlier I asked:
Why are the masks working? The virus is way smaller than the pores in these masks, but they are working? Why? I was wrong in an earlier post suggesting (strongly suggesting) that masks don't work.
But it's obvious they work. They shouldn't work. The coronavirus is several times smaller than the pores in the mask.
My tongue-in-cheek reply to a reader who asked me to expand. Not ready for prime time:
All
the reasons you suggest are part of the answer, but this is the #1
reason: viruses are not dry-little 7-gene protein particles that float
through the air. When a person sneezes, coughs, etc., they expel saliva,
bronchial secretions, other bodily fluids, etc., etc, and that's what
the viruses ride on when they come out -- again, they are not dry,
little one-micron free-floating particles. They are riding on "relatively" large droplets of bodily fluids.
By
the way, another reason: the viruses don't have GPS guidance; they
don't penetrate the pores of the mask using satellite positioning. This
is not like Star Wars where Skywalkers of the virus world fly their
vehicles through a gauntlet of obstacles. Their movement is completely
random. The pores may be big enough for viruses to get through but I
imagine most of the mask is impenetrable. If not impenetrable, enough
there to snag/attract protein particles.
Interestingly,
if one could come up with a "product" that could be sprayed on the
mask that viruses would get "stuck" on that would improve the efficacy
of the mask. I'm thinking "surface protein absorbing material" (or SPAM
for short) or PAM (protein absorbing material) which could be sprayed
on masks making them that much more efficacious. SPAM, of course, would
have an added benefit. Not only does SPAM have natural umami-ness, but
Asians are particularly fond of Spam and all things pork.
