JAG -- Earnings Call -- 4Q18 And FY18

JAG, from its webpage:

Jagged Peak is a pure play growth-oriented, independent oil and natural gas company focused on the development of its top-tier contiguous acreage position in the heart of the Delaware basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin in West Texas.

With approximately 75,000 net acres in the adjacent counties of Winkler, Ward, Reeves and Pecos, Jagged Peak has identified more than 2,000 drilling locations targeting significant original oil-in-place within multiple stacked hydrocarbon-bearing formations.

By using advanced drilling and completion techniques and leveraging our management team’s extensive experience and technical expertise we are positioned to execute on maximizing returns to shareholders. 

Presentations: link here.

Updates

May 21, 2019: based on recent presentation, it looks like about 35,000 bopd, maybe 40,000 boepd, off 75,000 acres. The better operators in the Bakken are getting about that same amount of production out of 175,000 net acres. Just a rough guess.

May 21, 2019: from CNBC, April 9, 2019 --

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

JAG.

Jagged Peak Energy, Inc.

Website here.

Permian play.

4Q18 and FY18 earnings call, link here.

• core development: Whiskey River, Wolfcamp A 
• capital allocation, focused on three areas
• Whiskey River: 50%; all but 1 of the Whiskey River wells will be on multi-well pads
• Chochise: will bring on 7 wells in 2019; will commence drilling a 9-well co-development pilot that will come online in 1Q20
• Big Tex: bring online 5 wells in a high-graded fairway; of the 5, one will target the Woodford interval; it was where their first successful test was in 2017; if the 5 are "good," then consider an additional 7 wells for 2H19
• 2019 rig program: 5 rigs throughout the year; one frack spread
• may add spot frack crews to keep up with pace of drilling
• it looks like optimizing a 4-rig or 5-rig / one frack spread
• free cash flow: another 18 to 30 months before we might see FCF, and it is highly dependent on WTI price
• Cochise, 9-well co-development pilot: 3 well pads; test 3 different landing zones in that particular area, so JAG will have the third Bone Spring and then 2 landing zones within the Wolfcamp A; will start drilling 3Q19; should be completed by late 4Q19 or early 2020
• 758 completed lateral feet in 2018
• 1,400 completed lateral feet in first six wells in 2019 due to design changes
• $1,250 per foot completion
• sand: all regional since May, 2018
• analyst noted: more wells coming on line but BOE seems to be decreasing; response from JAG: due to delays inherent in pad driling
• wrote off some acreage in 4Q18 after seismic work; suggested that it was a "thousand acres" but I may have that wrong

Much more at the link.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019, T+90, Part 2

Best barbeque restaurant in Ellis County, TX, south of Dallas/Ft Worth. The Vault.

And, then, of course, only in Texas, a "meat church" in downtown Waxahachie. Next "sermon":

If interested in any of these classes, here's the schedule.

If I had all the money in the world, I would:

• have a penthouse suite in Tokyo
• have a house on the ocean just south of Rockport, MA
• have a house on the tip of Cape Cod, MA
• have brisket and bourbon at least twice a month in Ellis County, Texas

If I had all the money in the world, I would not have enough time to do all the things I would love doing.

A better "alternative"? No matter how long the Lord plans for me to be on earth, instead of having all the money in the world, I would love one more year with Sophia. LOL. She told me all about her skiing trip in Utah this past weekend. She's four years, ten months old. She had two days of ski lessons in Angel Fire, New Mexico, over Christmas break; and, two days of lessons over spring break in Vail, Colorado. This past weekend, she skied two days with her sisters and dad in Park City, Utah. She kept up with her sisters on all the blue trails. One blue trail was particularly steep at the beginning so her dad "carried" her down the first part of the ski run.

Funny story. Dad and three daughters have boarded on the plane to depart Salt Lake City. The ages of the daughters: 15, 12, and 4.

At the last minute, their Dad realizes they've forgotten something in the rental car. He tells the girls to stay on the plane. He will try to make it back in time (of course he knows he won't) but if he doesn't he will catch up with them later.

The plane takes off. No one says anything. No one asks any questions. But we now have three minors traveling American Airlines unaccompanied, including a 4-year-old. LOL.

They arrived in DFW as scheduled and found their way to baggage claim and we picked them up. Their dad arrived home on the next plane.

All's well that ends well. 

By the way, somehow out of all that, Sophia got her "wings."

Tuesday, April 2, 2019, T+90, Part 1 -- Rambling Thoughts

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Rambling thoughts. Not ready for prime time.

Ninety days into the "new" congress, and notable legislation acted upon or pending:

Okay, moving on.

Unless you've been under the Geico Rock, articles from the last few days suggest just how big the Chinese economy is, how big it's going to get, and how fast it's going to get there. These are stories just from the past three or four days.

I'll supply the links later if the spirit moves me.

First, just how big is it? If one measures an economy by CO2 emissions, China's economy is huge.

How big will it get? Look at how much more energy China will add over the next decade.

Finally, how fast will this happen? Fast, really fast. Headline story over at oilprice: China can't get enough of Brazilian crude oil. Sanctions on Venezuelan oil have shifted a lot of crude buyer's focus to surrounding focus to surrounding Latin nations, but can it keep with demand?

Two weeks ago the US stock market started falling because there were reports and concerns that the Chinese economy was slowing.

Yesterday the market surged, well over 300 points. Why? There were reports that the Chinese economy had bounced back and was going to do just great. By the way, speaking of which, the market is down today (profit-taking) but one large company is notably bucking the trend. Apple. Apple is up an astounding 1.5% on a down day for the market, and after a run-up last week.  Huge presence in China. Just saying.

Now where was I?

There was a recent article out the other day about the number one issue that drove the US equity market during the 30 years that I was actively investing, from 1977 to 2007: OPEC. In a nutshell, during those 30 years OPEC controlled the global economy. That's not me saying that; it was a credible investor. I forget who it was. Doesn't matter. The meme matters.

OPEC now? Important but no longer drives the global economy. Today, what are the two "issues" that drive the US stock market? The Fed (whether it will raise rates or not) and the Chinese economy.

Regarding the Chinese economy, the issue driving the market now is a manufactured "crisis," the Trump trade wars with China.

The Fed? In the big scheme of things, most folks believe that the Fed is independent, not controlled by the president.

China "trade wars"? Controlled 100% by Trump.

On another note, Motley Fool. Pump and dump. Three stocks that could soar. A gazillion publicly trade companies and the very, very, very first company to pump and dump? Xilinx! Awesome. Link here. 

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Waxahachie, Texas

Posten Gardens.

One million tulips.

If you grow them, they will come.

At night, the tulip elves come out and paint little splashes of color on the tulips.

One in a million, my favorite:

Whoo-hoo! WTI Flirting With $63-Oil -- April 2, 2019

Weekly API crude oil data: a "surprise" build; I'm shocked, shocked --

• forecast: a draw of 425,000 bbls (note the false precision)
• actual: a build of 3.0 million bbls (I'm shocked, shocked!)

Platts forecast, posted earlier:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.74	4/2/2019	04/02/2018	04/02/2017	04/02/2016	04/02/2015
Active Rigs	65	60	50	29	94

Twelve new permits:

• Operators: Enerplus (10); WPX; Hess
• Fields: Mandaree (Dunn); Squaw Creek (Dunn); McGregory Buttes (Dunn); Spotted Horn (McKenzie);  Baskin (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• Enerplus has permits for a 2-well "Salmon/Sturgeon" pad in section 3-148-94; Squaw Creek
• Enerplus has permits for a 8-well "African" pad in section 3-148-94, in McGregory Buttes and Mandaree oil fields (see graphic below)
• WPX has a permit for a single Pheasant well in section 4-149-94, in Spotted Horn, on the reservation
• Hess has a permit for another EN-Chamley well in lot 3, section 5-156-93, in Baskin oil field

One producing well (DUC) reported at completed but still shows up as a DUC:

• 34846, SI/NC, CLR, Patterson Federal 8-13HSL1, Banks, no production data, Three Forks Bench 1, 2560-acre spacing;

The graphic (see Enerplus 8-well "African" pad noted above); in the graphic, I call it a 10-well "African" pad but noting above that the pad has a Sturgeon well and a Salmon well, both of which will run into Squaw Creek, which seems to make sense, two fish "running" into a creek:

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. The graphic may be completely wrong. Proposed pad location is not drawn to scale and may be incorrectly placed. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

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One Million Tulips, Waxahachie, Texas

March - April

First Year Open To The Public: 2019

Planted, October, 2018

Links:

• first-ever
• one million bulbs (we had lunch with the "developer"; pictured in the video; he looks just like his picture); Thijs van Zaal;
• Facebook
• Kubota

Deep Doo-Doo -- Saudi Arabia's Foreign Exchange Reserves -- February, 2019, Data

See also most recent US import data, posted moment ago.