Monday, June 27, 2016

New NDIC Presentation With Emphasis On Inactive Wells, DUCs; Future Of The Bakken At Various Price Points -- June 27, 2016

A reader notes a new presentation from NDIC, dated June 24, 2016. The presentation provided information on "inactive wells" and proposed changes to give operators sufficient either to restore production or plug and reclaim the well. Some data points:
  • as of the end of April, there were 1,590 inactive wells (on top of the 900 or so DUCs)
  • estimated price point for those wells to return to production: $40 - $45 / bbl WTI
  • as of the end of April, there were 890 DUCs
  • estimated price point for DUCs to be completed: $50 - $60 / bbl WTI
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Sea of Heartbreak

Someone said:
Don Gibson wrote "Oh, Lonesome Me" and "Sea of Heartbreak" on the same day. There can't be more than a handful of songwriters in history to write two great hits in just a single day.  
In addition, his "I Can't Stop Loving You" was the B-side of "Oh, Lonesome Me." Not fact-checked.

Brexit: a "sea of heartbreak." 

Sea of Heartbreak, Don Gibson

Daily Activity Report Almost Blank -- No New Permits; No Completed DUCs; One Permit Renewal And That Was It -- For Those Minimally Interested In The Bakken, Perhaps Time To Move On -- June 27, 2016; Breaking News On Katie Ledecky

Active rigs:


6/27/201606/27/201506/27/201406/27/201306/27/2012
Active Rigs3075193187217

The daily activity report was almost blank:
  • two wells released from the confidential list (posted earlier this morning)
  • one Oasis permit renewal, a Kaitlin Federal permit in Mountrail County
... and that was it.

For folks to stay interested in the Bakken and the milliondollarway blog is going to take some doing.

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The Katie Ledecky Page

Katie Ledecky "cruises into 400 free final at US swim trials." Reported just four hours ago --
After waiting around a day, Katie Ledecky got in her first swim of the U.S. Olympic trials.
It was an easy one, too.
She cruised into the 400-meter freestyle final on Monday, finishing a whopping 0.52 seconds faster than anyone else despite slowing down over the final lap. The Maryland teenager won her heat in 4 minutes, 2.62 seconds, finishing two body lengths ahead of the nearest competition.
She said later:
"I just had to get those first-swim jitters out of the way," Ledecky said. "I'll just have to manage the energy a little better.
Reporting eight hours ago, SwimSwam has even more.

From USA Today, "Katie Ledecky is dominant force in swimming."
Ledecky, 19, is entered in five events here at trials after deciding to scratch Sunday’s 400-meter individual medley. She’s entered in all the freestyle events, from the 50-meter to the 800-meter, the event in which she won gold in London in 2012.
Some NBA professional basketball players -- who would probably never get near a mosquito in Rio -- have decided not to participate in the Olympics this year. It appears Katie Ledecky will be going. Good for her. Take lots of mosquito repellent.

Even a feature story in The New York Times: "In chasing a legent, Katie Ledecky discovers a buoyant ally."
To those who have watched her swim circles around the competition, Katie Ledecky appears to have no peers in the pool. Ledecky, however, knows better.
At a meet outside Phoenix in April, she spotted Debbie Meyer, the woman she will probably be chasing at the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in August, and trundled over to say hello. Meyer greeted her with a hug and exclaimed: “You’re great! Two, four, eight. Do it this summer!”
At the 1968 trials ahead of the Olympics in Mexico City, Meyer set world records in the 200, 400 and 800 freestyles. Two months after turning 16, she swept her events at the Summer Games to become the first swimmer to win three individual Olympic gold medals. No Olympian since has matched Meyer’s 200-400-800 string of gold (the men contest the 1,500 meters instead of the 800).
Ledecky, 19, may be the one to finally match the feat.
Google "Katie Ledecky June 2016" without the quotes and find even more stories.

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The Amazon.Com Page

At the Southlake library this morning, I came across a book that really intrigued me. I immediately bought it and another book by the same author, ordering them at Amazon.com. That was this morning, about 10:30 a.m. By e-mail, I was just notified that the two books had been shipped. I will receive them tomorrow or Wednesday. No shipping charges. "Shipping charges" hidden in the annual Prime membership "fee" of about $100 annually which I accidentally subscribed to some weeks ago. But I'm already hooked.

Hawaii 5-O, The Ventures

How Big A Deal Is The Expanded Panama Canal For The US? Huge -- June 27, 2017

How big a deal is the "new and improved" Panama Canal for the US? Huge.  
By 2018 US exports of LPG will likely equal those of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates combined.
See the update the original post.
China is already the biggest single customer for US propane and second-biggest for LPG and the ability to move these volumes more efficiently will likely only increase that flow
EIA data show trade to both China and Japan having already accelerated before the canal expansion’s opening. LPG shipments to Japan more than tripled to 166,000 b/d in the first 3 months of 2016 from 49,000 b/d for the same period last year. Shipments to China jumped to 161,000 b/d from 66,000 b/d in the same window.
December 31, 2018, is less than 3 years from now; the second full year of Hillary's presidency. Things are moving very, very quickly.

As a reminder, the difference between propane and LPG:
Propane is a byproduct of natural gas processing and petroleum refining. Before propane is used, it exists in one of two forms, liquid or gas (or vapor). Both liquid propane and gas are usable but cannot be used interchangeably. In other words, a propane system designed to use gas can’t utilize propane in its liquid form and vice-versa. Additionally, the characteristics of propane liquid and propane gas are so different that the primary properties we are concerned with are as different as night and day. With propane liquid, temperature is the primary factor whereas weight is the main concern regarding propane vapor. Think of it this way, water is liquid and steam is water vapor. The same holds true for propane and is explained in detail below.
Also:
Propane is classified as LPG, along with butane, isobutane and mixtures of these gases. 
This looks like a pretty good source for sorting this out

The Brexit? It's only "make-believe."

It's Only Make Believe, Conway Twitty

Natural Gas Storage Hits A Record For First Week In June; The Bakken Turns Out To Be A Significant Contributor

This is really quite incredible when you think about it.

For newbies: the Bakken is considered an "oil" play. Somewhere between 93% and 95% of all hydrocarbon produced from the Bakken is oil; throw in condensates and "we" might be "pert near" 97%, leaving only about 3% of hydrocarbon production in the Bakken to be natural gas.

On the other hand, the Woodford, Haynesville, and Barnett are all considered natural gas plays.

I mention that because the amount of natural gas produced in the Bakken is in the same "ball park" as that produced in Woodford and Barnett. And compared to the overwhelming production in the Marcellus (and eventually the Utica), one can even argue that natural gas production in the Bakken is in the same "ball park" as that produced by the Haynesville.

I don't think that's hyperbole, considering how much the Bakken has been "choked back" with:
  • fewer rigs (30 now, versus 200+ during the boom)
  • fewer permits (maybe 50% less compared to the boom)
  • less drilling (much less, compared to the boom)
  • producing wells choked back and taken off-line for short periods each month
  • inactive wells (around 1,500)
  • DUCs (around 900)


The link: http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archive/2016/06_23/index.cfm. For the "Natural Gas Weekly Update" report released June 22, 2016.

Some data points from that release:
  • working natural gas stocks hit a new record for the first week in June: over the 3 trillion cubic foot mark -- that's storage! -- storage hit 3 Tcf during the first week in June -- earlier in the refill season (April 1- October 31) than ever before
  • the record set back in 2012 was erased 
  • comparable to 2012, working gas stocks entered the refill season this year (2016) at a record high level, totaling 2.492 Tcf on March 31, 2016. That was 19 Bcf above the record set in 2012
  • the EIA uses the phrase "considerably higher" to say where we are now compared to 2012 (the previous record year)
  • despite this huge injection, total natural gas demand during this same period has exceeded both year-ago and 2012 levels -- a trend driven by power-sector consumption
  • power burn: 26 Bcf/d; 10% greater than a year ago; 5% greater than 2012
  • exports: to Mexico have more than doubled since 2012 to 4 Bcf/d; LNG up to 0.5 Bcf/d from negligible in 2012
  • natural gas production has slowed in all seven of the shale-producing regions
  • natural gas spot prices rose faster than futures contracts prices for next winter
Much, much more at the link.  

The War On Coal -- The Chinese Perspective -- And Poland, India, Australia, Indonesia -- June 27, 2016

Link here.

The graph at the link is ... mind-boggling -- the pink/red represents "over-supply," not consumption.

With regard to oil, natural gas, and coal, I think the most unreported story is Indonesia. With regard to coal, watch: China, India, and Indonesia. The population of Indonesia: 250 million. The US: about 320 million.

Perhaps more on this later. I'll be off the net for awhile. Going biking. It's already 87 degrees. Feels like 95 degrees. High will be slightly less than 100 degrees today. "Real feel" on the way home will be 110 degrees.

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A Note For The Granddaughters
The Lewis Chessmen

A most interesting book to read: Ivory Vikings: The Mystery of the Most Famous Chessmen in the World and the Woman Who Made Them, Nancy Marie Brown, c. 2015.

This book is to chess, I think, at least on some level, what Brenda James book is to "the real Shakespeare."

The limited evidence favors Trondheim, but Margret the Adroit of Iceland is on equal footing: all that is needed is evidence of an ivory workshop at Skalholt (Iceland).

The book explains why the historic chess match between Boris Spassky and Bobby Fischer in 1972 was played in Raykjavik. Wow.

The author notes the etymology of "Permian." 

Words:
  • netsuke (I think I've seen this word elsewhere, recently): a carved buttonlike ornament, especially of ivory or wood, formerly worn in Japan to suspend articles from the sash of a kimono
  • cist: an ancient coffin or burial chamber made from stone or a hollowed tree
  • chasuble: a sleeveless outer vestment worn by a Catholic or High Anglican priest when celebrating Mass, typically ornate and having a simple hole for the head
  • crozier: a hooked staff carried by a bishop as a symbol of pastoral office; ceremonial shepherd's crook
  • fey: having supernatural powers of clairvoyance
  • rook: from Arabic rukh, means "chariot"
  • berserk: warriors of Odin; wore no armor; berserks -- bear-shirts or bare-shirts; mad as dogs or wolves; Harold's Lay is the earliest known mention of berserks; no other culture claims shield-biters; they are going berserk
  • valkyrie: a battle goddess; mythological, legendary, and (perhaps) historical
  • gambesons: long leather coats, worn by the Lewis rooks
  • pawn: the French word for our "peon"
  • reeve: a local official, in particular the chief magistrate of a town or district in Anglo-Saxon England(think "shire-reeve" -- "shire-reef"' -- sheriff)
  • vizier: a high official in some Muslim countries, especially in Turkey under Ottoman rule; originally a vizier was in the modern queen's place
Geography:
  • Hebridean beach
  • Isle of Lewis in westernmost Scotland
  • Trondheim, Norway (my grandfather's childhood home)
  • Saint Olav's church, Trondheim 
The chess pieces. First the rooks.

Then the bishops. None is an archbishop: none is wearing a pallium -- the bejeweled and embroidered ribbon an archbishop wore draped around his shoulders and dangling down front and back. An archbishop would carry a cross, as well, not a crozier.

The author suggests that it may have been the Norse that introduced the bishop to the board (obviously the Indians and the Arabians would not have). And, if so, it could have been the bishop of Trondheim back in the 12th century.

Peter Abelard: considered today to be the first modern thinker; his ideas led to the founding of the University of Paris in 1215. Abelard is best known for his treatise Sicet Non, arriving at the truth of an idea by arguing pro and con. In the thirteenth century, Abelard's idea would be made orthodox by Thomas Aquinas.

Then the queens. The queen began as the weakest piece on the board, but by 1497, the queen was the strongest piece, any number of spaces, any direction. She had gone "mad." Some say she may have been patterned after Isabella of Castille, the ruler of Spain.

The kings.

The knights. These are the last pieces to be put on the chessboard; they were not known in the North in the twelfth century.

The author ends with the Pawns, in the "chapter" of acknowledgments at the end of the book.