Friday, May 27, 2016
Here We Go ... Dakota Access Pipeline Keystoned In Iowa -- May 27, 2016
Dakota Access Pipeline --- construction permit "yanked" -- in Iowa .... Keystoned ... as predicted.
New High School -- Staff, Teachers Starting To Move From Old High School To New High School -- Williston, North Dakota; Williston Probably Grew Almost 10% In 2015 -- The Year Of The Bakken Bust
As the subject line says. Last day of school was May 25, 2016, for this school year. Students, staff came back May 26, 2016, to help start the move.
Graduation will be held May 29, 2016.
Will the new high school be big enough? The U.S. Census Bureau recently released 2015 city population estimates. The growth rates for North Dakota's ten largest cities ranged from +9.8 percent for Williston to -0.4 percent for Jamestown. The five North Dakota cities with the largest number of new residents:
Housing? North Dakota had the fastest rate of growth among the 57 states. The US Census Bureau has released its 2015 estimates of the number of housing units for the nation, states and counties.
The Dickinson Press reports birth rates are steady in western North Dakota. I've mentioned before that the most important metric to track the Bakken economy is the public school census in Williston and in Watford City in the autumn of 2016, three to four months from now.
After decades of dreaming, the Stark County Fairgrounds is now about a summer away from reality. With the earthwork just about completed and much of the red tape squared away, Stark County Fair Board President Lee Ann Karsky said construction of the fairgrounds and rodeo arena south of Dickinson will begin in full sometime next week with a completion target of September.
This has always amazed me. This is almost as big as North Dakota's annual paddlefish season and deer hunting season. Williston often hosts the nation's Babe Ruth World Series:
Spinmeisters already preparing us for "crummy" jobs report next week. If the report is "crummy," blame it on this "one-time event": the Verizon strike.
As if we've never had strikes in the US before. Whatever.
Two weeks ago, airport security lines stretched for 3 hours or longer. TSA blamed it on short staffing and too many passengers.
This week, more passengers than last week due to the Memorial Day weekend, and folks are "flying" through security.
TSA said they needed more personnel. I can guarantee you TSA did not advertise for, perform background checks, hire, train, and schedule new workers in less than two weeks. The whole debacle was staged from the beginning.
Fliers and airlines called TSA's bluff.
Graduation will be held May 29, 2016.
Will the new high school be big enough? The U.S. Census Bureau recently released 2015 city population estimates. The growth rates for North Dakota's ten largest cities ranged from +9.8 percent for Williston to -0.4 percent for Jamestown. The five North Dakota cities with the largest number of new residents:
- Watford City (+2,505)
- Fargo (+2,419)
- Williston (+2,416)
- Bismarck (+2,210)
- West Fargo (+1,846)
Housing? North Dakota had the fastest rate of growth among the 57 states. The US Census Bureau has released its 2015 estimates of the number of housing units for the nation, states and counties.
These estimates show that Texas gained more housing units than any other state between July 1, 2014 and July 1, 2015 (adding 162,000), with North Dakota experiencing the fastest rate of growth in the number of units (3.5 percent).
Among counties with at least 2,000 housing units, McKenzie, ND, added units at the fastest rate over the period, as the number rose 55.9 percent (from 3,760 to 5,862).For newbies: see Watford City above? Watford City is the "major" city in McKenzie County. For Williams County to the north, it is Williston.
The Dickinson Press reports birth rates are steady in western North Dakota. I've mentioned before that the most important metric to track the Bakken economy is the public school census in Williston and in Watford City in the autumn of 2016, three to four months from now.
After decades of dreaming, the Stark County Fairgrounds is now about a summer away from reality. With the earthwork just about completed and much of the red tape squared away, Stark County Fair Board President Lee Ann Karsky said construction of the fairgrounds and rodeo arena south of Dickinson will begin in full sometime next week with a completion target of September.
This has always amazed me. This is almost as big as North Dakota's annual paddlefish season and deer hunting season. Williston often hosts the nation's Babe Ruth World Series:
Baseball fans are invited to get their advance tickets for the 2016 Babe Ruth World Series at Cherry Creek Radio's 66 cent breakfast on Wednesday, June 1 from 7-9 a.m. at the Grand Williston Hotel and Conference Center.
The World Series will be held August 13-20 at Ardean Aafedt Stadium in Williston.
World Series family passes run $50 each while individual passes run $25 each. The eight-day tournament will feature 25 games of exciting baseball action.
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Job Watch
Spinmeisters already preparing us for "crummy" jobs report next week. If the report is "crummy," blame it on this "one-time event": the Verizon strike.
As if we've never had strikes in the US before. Whatever.
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Managers Fired, Lines Move
Two weeks ago, airport security lines stretched for 3 hours or longer. TSA blamed it on short staffing and too many passengers.
This week, more passengers than last week due to the Memorial Day weekend, and folks are "flying" through security.
Travelers who were dreading long airport security lines Friday ahead of the Memorial Day weekend instead reported moving quickly through checkpoints after authorities opened extra screening lanes and used bomb-sniffing dogs to give some passengers a break from removing their shoes.
New managers."Wow. I mean, wow," said Mike Saresky, who flew into Chicago from Philadelphia, where he breezed through airport security in 12 minutes and got to leave his shoes on. "I thought it was going to be a lot worse."
TSA said they needed more personnel. I can guarantee you TSA did not advertise for, perform background checks, hire, train, and schedule new workers in less than two weeks. The whole debacle was staged from the beginning.
Fliers and airlines called TSA's bluff.
DUCs -- Update -- Graphic -- May 27, 2016; Gasoline Demand Updated
Updates
June 12, 2016: Bloomberg has an update on DUCs, but I don't think the article adds much to the discussion ... yet. There is a graph, where are the DUCs?
- Permian Basin: about 1,200
- Eagle Ford: about 900
- Bakken: about 800
- Niobrara: about 600
- Rest of US shale: about 200 in all
May 28, 2016: see first comment --
The cost to drill and frac a well in the Niobrara now ranges from $2.1 to $2.5 million.
They are implementing a process termed 'monobore' which, if circumstances allow, should spread to the shallower Permian formations and elsewhere.
The output from Niobrara wells is substantially lower than the Bakken's costs, but - at two and half million a pop - quite a low cost operation.
Original Post
The graphic is a bit confusing. I thought it was the number of DUCs, but the heading suggests it is the cost of well completion (CWC) per bbl of oil by county. I could be wrong. This will take you to the linked story.
From that link, explaining the graph above:
The heart of the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) basin exhibits the most commercial drilled but uncompleted (DUC) backlog, said a Rystad Energy study that estimated the DUC inventory in Weld County, Colo., was economic to complete at an average light, sweet crude oil futures price of $30/bbl.
Other counties that exhibit favorable economics are Reeves County, Tex., in the Permian basin’s Delaware and McKenzie County, ND, in the Bakken formation, said Artem Abramov, Rystad senior analyst in Oslo. He believes much of the US shale DUC inventory is commercial given current oil prices.
“Significant support to the US Lower 48 oil supply can be expected in the near months as market sentiment gradually moves in a positive direction,” Abramov told OGJ.
Weld County topped Rystad’s DUC ranking list by inventory size with almost 600 oil wells awaiting completion crews.
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Gasoline Demand
Favorite Production Graphic Has Been Updated -- May 27, 2016
My favorite global production graphic has been updated. The new graphic:
Note the incredible increase in crude oil production by Russia (purple arrow) and Saudi Arabia (green arrow) since 2012. The remarkable increase in Saudi Arabia production between October, 2014, and October, 2015, resulted in the price of oil plummeting from $120/bbl to $25/bbl with talk at one time suggesting oil would go to $18/bbl (Goldman Sachs), or thereabouts. Exact quotes will be hard to find as folks try to walk back their "crazy talk."
Platts has projections for Russian production through 2017 at this link.
Note the incredible increase in crude oil production by Russia (purple arrow) and Saudi Arabia (green arrow) since 2012. The remarkable increase in Saudi Arabia production between October, 2014, and October, 2015, resulted in the price of oil plummeting from $120/bbl to $25/bbl with talk at one time suggesting oil would go to $18/bbl (Goldman Sachs), or thereabouts. Exact quotes will be hard to find as folks try to walk back their "crazy talk."
Platts has projections for Russian production through 2017 at this link.
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