FBI Seems To Be Interested In Anti-Keystone XL Activists -- National Post -- February 9, 2015

This is an incredibly interesting article sent to me by a reader.

A long time ago -- long-time readers might remember -- I posted several stories on mega-load protests (I even have a tag on megaloads).

The National Post is reporting that the FBI seems to be interested in anti-Keystone XL activists:

But activists say oilsands opposition appears to be the common thread among people being contacted [by the FBI]. Police have been in touch with people from different groups, who in some cases don’t agree on much, but one thing they share is mutual participation in the so-called megaload protests.

Those are the intermittent highway blockades set up the last few years to complicate the enormous, football-field-sized shipments of processing equipment up to the oilsands.

Yost said only two people from her group participated in that anti-oilsands action — and those are the people who’ve been contacted by the FBI. She has refused to co-operate.

The other person, Herb Goodwin, was visited at home by an FBI agent and a veteran detective from the local police force in Bellingham, Wash. He said the federal agent told him: “We’re here to ask whether you’ll answer some questions for us about Deep Green Resistance.”

That group, DGR, calls itself a radical environmental movement that believes the biggest problem with the planet is human civilization itself. It proposes a shift back from agriculture to a hunter-gatherer horticultural lifestyle.

I think it's pretty easy to see what the FBI is interested in, but I will keep my thoughts to myself.  I don't think it has anything to do with the Keystone XL per se.

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Not What It Seems

I had not seen the 2011 movie Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy until last night (DVD). Tonight I watched it again with the commentary "on." Wow, what an incredible movie. The final "montage" is ... I have no words to describe it. See also this review.

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La Mer , Julio Iglesias

Reason #10 Why I Love To Blog -- February 9, 2015 -- Here We Go Again; OPEC Signaling A Price Increase?

Here is simply another incredible story.

This is why I started blogging -- to better understand the oil industry in North Dakota. Had it not been for the blog the story being reported at Rigzone would have made no sense. This will probably be the top story of the week.

Rigzone is reporting a Nevada play that just might be the richest shale oil play in North America, maybe the world:

Nevada’s Chainman play offers great untapped potential in terms of conventional and unconventional resources, say industry veterans who’ve studied the play in the past few decades.

In March, SAM Oil will test the potential of a conventional prospect in the Pluto 27-1 re-entry prospect, an anticlinal trap with migrated hydrocarbons into sand and fractured shale reservoirs.

Originally drilled in 2007 by Plains Exploration & Production near the copper mining town of Ely in northeast Nevada, SAM redrilled the well last fall. In its test, SAM is targeting an anticline structure with an estimated 50 to 89 million barrels of oil recoverable, SAM manager Allen Matzke told Rigzone.

The Chainman shale is considered to be possibly not only richest oil shale in North America, but worldwide, said Charles Laser, an oil and gas consultant and wildcatter with nearly 40 years of experience.

“The Chainman is superior to the Bakken or Eagle Ford due to the fact is a secondary, tectonically, naturally fractured shale with excellent total organic carbon (TOC), allowing for much large reserves and higher flow rates.”

Nevada has not seen the level of oil and gas activity as that of Texas or North Dakota.

Oil and gas drilling has taken place in the Eastern Great Basin, which encompasses eastern Nevada and western Utah, since the late 1800s in Utah, according to a 2007 study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The first commercial oil production in Nevada started in 1954 with Shell Oil’s completion of the #1-35 Eagle Springs, the discovery well for the Eagle Springs field in Nye County, Nevada. From the early 1900s to Shell’s Eagle Springs well in 1954, roughly 90 exploration wells were drilled in the Eastern Great Basin.

“As the exploration industry became more established, popular exploration targets were large, surface exposed anticline structures,” according to the USGS report.

“Some of these structures had oil shows in prospective reservoirs, but no accumulations were found.” The Shell discovery resulted in a sharp increase in drilling for approximately three years, but drilling activity fell due to low oil prices. Four more drilling activity spikes inspired by new field discoveries occurred in 1961, 1965 to 1970, 1977 to 1981, and 1984 to 1988. “The correlation between the number of new oilfield discoveries and the number of wells or total footage drilled, however, is poor,” said USGS. 

Much more at the link. This article will likely be archived by the source.

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Update On Collateral Damage Being Caused In Latin America

Rigzone's John Kemp also has an update on the collateral damage being caused in Latin America.  This article will also likely be archived.

Three data points from the article:

• U.S. shale will continue to be the marginal supplier of crude to the global market and set benchmark prices. The only real question is what level of prices and production are needed to balance the market.
• The number of active land rigs has fallen sharply in OPEC members Ecuador (down by 46 percent) and Venezuela (21 percent) as well as non-OPEC Bolivia (60 percent), Colombia (18 percent) and Mexico (45 percent). The only country where there is no evidence of a slowdown in activity, so far, is Argentina, where the number of rigs operating has climbed steeply over the last three years and has remained stable in recent months. The Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina's Neuquen Basin is seen as one of the most promising shale plays outside the United States and has attracted strong interest from international oil companies.

• Deepwater and ultra-deepwater fields off the coasts of Latin America and Africa require major capital commitments which international oil companies are reluctant to make when their revenues have been slashed and they are under pressure to increase capital discipline to maintain dividend payouts to investors. Shale is proving such a disruptive force in the oil market because it has emerged in the middle of the cost curve rather than at the top. North American shale plays may be more expensive than conventional fields in the United States, Canada and around the Middle East Gulf. When the shakeout is completed, North American shale drillers will not be the only, and perhaps not even the main, losers. 

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Getting Ready For A Price Increase?

Reuters at Rigzone is reporting:

OPEC forecast on Monday that demand for its oil this year would be much higher than previously thought, as its strategy of letting prices fall to hurt other producers begins to take effect.

In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast demand for its oil would average 29.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, up 430,000 bpd from its previous prediction.

That would raise demand for the group's crude to above the level seen last year, with OPEC's forecast for production growth outside the group slashed by a third due to a slowdown in the U.S. shale boom and lower oil investments globally.

"(Lower non-OPEC supply is) mainly due to announced capital expenditures cuts for 2015 on the part of international oil companies, as well as a decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. and Canada," it said.

It said non-OPEC supply would rise by only 850,000 bpd this year, down 420,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

Four (4) Wells Coming Off Confidential Tuesday -- All Go To DRL Status -- February 8, 2015

Coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 27550, drl, CLR, Steele Federal 3-24AH, Banks, no production data,
• 28365, drl, BR, CCU Pullman 6-8-7TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
• 28544, drl, XTO, Schettler 14X-9A, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 28939, drl, XTO, Allen 21X-17A, Dollar Joe, no production data,

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At The Corner Of Software Street And Battery Boulevard

Earlier today there was a short blurb on Apple and Tesla. Now, a bit more on the relationship between Tesla and Apple. Very, very interesting, this intersection between Tesla and Apple. Macrumors is reporting:

Following last week's news of a mysterious Apple-leased vehicle roaming the streets of Northern California, an Apple employee has given some details to Business Insider, suggesting Apple is working on a project that will "give Tesla a run for its money."

According to the site's source, who was verified to be an Apple employee, Tesla employees are "jumping ship" and choosing to work at Apple because of this unidentified project.

Last week's pictures unveiled a van that appeared to have multiple cameras on the top, similar to the vehicles Google uses for mapping. Given the van's similarity to other mapping vehicles, rumors have suggested that it is likely for an unspecified mapping project. Apple has been working to improve Maps in recent months, and it's possible the company is working on a feature that would compete with Google Street View.

At the corner of Software Street and Battery Boulevard. 

Another Well To Watch -- February 9, 2015

Permitted today:

• 30685, loc, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9C-4-3C, Charlson, 

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Tale Of Two Companies

Link:
The company had issued the securities in as many as five parts with the maturity period ranging from 5 years to 30 years. The 5-year $1.25 billion worth of bonds came with a yield of 1.55% while the $2 billion worth 30-year bonds had a yield of 3.4%. According to reports from Bloomberg, the yields were higher than the comparable Treasuries.

Link:
The world’s largest software maker sold notes in six parts, including $2.25 billion of 40-year obligations with a 4 percent coupon, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Those bonds sold at a yield of 153 basis points more than 30-year Treasuries. The company increased its sale by 54 percent after marketing $7 billion of debt earlier in the day.

So, this year, on a annualized basis, Apple will pay out 0.034 on $2 billion = $68,0000,000.
Microsoft will pay 0.04 on $2.25 billion =  $90,000,000.

I guess.

North Dakota Getting Ready To Test CO2 EOR In North Dakota; The Super-Rich Don't LIke Paying Taxes Either -- February 9, 2015

Getting ready to test CO2 injection this summer in North Dakota. Bakken.com is reporting:

This summer, North Dakota’s Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) will test the technique of using carbon dioxide for advanced oil recovery on its first commercial oil well, reports The Bismarck Tribune.

This trial will be used to determine how much more oil and gas can be recovered by implementing the process.

...  the technology has been used in the past, but on an older well. However, he thinks that use of the process could begin much sooner and added that the EERC hopes to begin carbon dioxide testing on a well drilled within the past five years.
The project will begin by testing one well. The program hopes to expand and believes a multi-pad well site would be ideal for future trial runs. 

The Lignite Research Council, in partnership with EERC, suspects that coal-fired plants will be top providers of carbon in the near future as carbon emission reduction requirements are put into effect.

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No One Likes Paying Taxes; Some Can Afford To Move

Florida, Texas Are Nice This Time Of Year

The is AP reporting:

If you're a billionaire living in Connecticut, chances are the tax department is keeping an eye on you.

In a state home to some of the richest Americans, tax officials go to some lengths to keep them — or, more accurately, keep the billions of dollars in revenue their income taxes generate.

Connecticut tax officials track quarterly estimated payments of 100 high net-worth taxpayers and can tell when payments are down. Of that number, about a half-dozen taxpayers have an effect on revenue that's noticed in the legislature and Department of Revenue Services.

Two years ago, tax officials were alarmed that a super-rich hedge fund owner might leave and reduce the state's income tax revenue. They set up a meeting and urged the unidentified taxpayer to stay. The effort was partly successful, with the taxpayer leaving Connecticut but agreeing to keep the hedge fund here.

Yesterday I ran into an individual whose company recently relocated to Southlake, Texas (just up the road from where we live) from San Diego, California, specifically because of the state corporate taxes.

I track the states here.

Back on April 30, 2014, CT Mirror was reporting:

Plummeting tax receipts have ripped a nearly $300 million hole in the next state budget, leaving legislators and Gov. Dannel P. Malloy just one week to fix it, according to a new report Wednesday from fiscal analysts.

Meanwhile, proposed new spending for pre-kindergarten programs, the elderly and working poor, public colleges and universities, and for cities and towns hang in the balance – as do tax breaks for teachers and consumers and the potential expansion of legalized gambling in Connecticut.

New projections from the administration and the legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis also worsened the deficit in the first budget after the November election, pushing it close to $1.4 billion or 7.4 percent of annual operating costs.

Meanwhile, the $500 million-plus surplus Malloy touted just two months ago when he proposed a tax rebate has disintegrated to $43 million.

More recently, from the CT Post,

Unilateral cuts of nearly $50 million ordered by Gov. Dannel P. Malloy in November have resulted in a smaller projected deficit in the fiscal year that runs through June 30.

But there remains a lingering $31.6 million shortfall in the $20 billion budget.

Budget shortfalls of $59 million over the last month, including a $40 million shortfall in the Medicaid program due to federal reimbursement issues, have been offset by savings of $72.2 million in various state programming accounts, most importantly a $65 million reduction in debt service payments resulting from low interest rates.

One more reason why Janet Yellen is resistant to raising rates. 

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Prioritizing

There are only so many dollars; only so many hours in the day; only so many bureaucrats; only so many meteorologists -- it seems resources would have been better spent preparing for the winters we've been seeing the past several years and the one we're experiencing now than diverting all those resources to preparing for an ocean that is rising at the rate of 0.01 inch per decade, or whatever it is.

The mayor talks a good talk, saying he's going to keep the subways open no matter what. But CBSlocalBoston is reporting:

Gov. Charlie Baker is “frustrated” and “disappointed” with the MBTA as it struggled to maintain even a limited schedule during Monday’s snowstorm.
The MBTA announced that all rail service will be suspended beginning at 7pm Monday night due to the snow. Rail service will be suspended all day Tuesday while maintenance crews continue to clear snow and ice from tracks, the third rail and switches.

The snow is bad but the freezing weather and ice yet to come (at the end of the week) will be even worse. A lot of folks are going to be delayed (and some will completely miss) getting to the global warming meetings being held on college campuses throughout the greater Boston area this week and next.