The Staggering Bakken -- CLR's Florida 3-11H -- Camp Oil Field -- January 7, 2020

Wells of interest.

Remember this one?

• 21977, Florida, CLR, Camp oil field; updated;

The Florida and Florida Federal wells are tracked here.

The well:

•  21977, 1,016, CLR, Florida 3-11H, Camp, middle Bakken, thickness of 40 feet; trip gas maxed out at about 8500 units; 38 stages, 3.4 million lbs, total days, 16; 2560-acre spacing; t1/13; cum 434K 8/17; on pump 6/10/14; this well was not re-fracked; full production profile at this post;
  

Production periods of interest:

• after original (and only frack to date), maximum monthly production: 3/13 -- 21,3679 bbls
• 9/14, full month: 5,000 bbls
• four months later, 1/15, full month: 12,000 bbls
• 11/16, full month: 3,000 bbls
• less than one year later, 6/17, full month: 27,000 bbls:

Production profile, 2016 - 2017:

BAKKEN	10-2017	14	7272	7481	3477	11030	10821	22
BAKKEN	9-2017	27	16016	16113	10452	24804	24048	380
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	20527	20364	12078	29845	28575	839
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	25414	25768	14166	37116	36375	269
BAKKEN	6-2017	29	27095	26749	24664	32161	29515	2207
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	20315	20535	23855	23856	10977	12435
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	17047	16919	18489	13999	4631	8908
BAKKEN	3-2017	16	3594	3107	8636	4295	1164	2907
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	2	94	235	36	134	116	1
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	2324	2345	1006	3018	2368	257
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	2921	2959	1482	4569	3887	220
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	3187	3118	1371	4688	4232	0

Production profile, following initial frack back in 2013:

BAKKEN	1-2014	31	11056	10466	3513	19590	19581	9
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	12324	12573	3917	20049	20035	14
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	11774	11647	3563	16043	16021	22
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	13086	13060	3494	17763	17639	124
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	8724	8907	2799	11233	11203	30
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	12587	12241	4055	16562	16519	43
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	11220	11320	3809	14614	14521	93
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	13784	13834	4140	18079	17975	104
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	15829	16025	4281	21238	21192	46
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	16322	16606	4138	20660	17443	3217
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	21379	21257	4925	26081	25247	834
BAKKEN	2-2013	19	19265	18425	7468	25960	20975	4985
BAKKEN	1-2013	7	1018	942	7129	1876	0	1876

US Crude Oil Exports -- Up Over 30% Week-Over-Week The Last Week Of 2019

Link here.

First this comment: the "pie" week-over-week was about the same -- the "pie" being the total global demand for petroleum.

So, these are the questions that need to be asked:

• why the 31% increase in US crude oil exports, week-over-week?
• was it an anomaly or will it be sustained?
• if the "pie" is relatively unchanged, whose slice of the pie got a lot smaller?
• don't say Venezuela, Mexico, Libya, Iran, etc: those countries have been under the "gun" for several years now
• or, are some buyers (e.g., China) stockpiling; was there a huge demand last week as we closed out the year; China, others expecting much higher prices going forward?
• was it simply an anomaly -- it doesn't take many VLCC to account for a jump in exports?
• do the Permian pipelines / new export terminals along the Texas/Louisiana coast explain it?
• global refineries now prefer light, sweet oil?
• IMO 2020?
• are we exporting raw materials so that other countries can refine it and sell the refined products at a premium? Is the US missing a refining opportunity? Think exporting cotton to England where they made textiles to sell back to the colonies

About That Huge US Crude Oil Draw Last Week -- January 7, 2020

Comments, questions, observations at this link.

About that huge crude oil draw last week: from a reader --

That big draw was due to record exports...a blowout, too: almost 900K bpd higher than the previous record.

https://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/january4th2020usoilexportsasofdecember27.jpg

Comment: I completely missed it. And I bet most Americans completely missed it. From the EIA, monthly and weekly exports:

Reader Explains Huge Draw Last Week -- January 7, 2020

NDIC did not post the daily activity report yesterday, Monday, January 7, 2020. 

Dueling banjos:

• Harold Hamm: "oil" to rise to $75/bbl within next six months.
• Goldman Sachs: oil rally to be short-lived

About that huge crude oil draw last week: from a reader --

That big draw was due to record exports...a blowout, too: almost 900K bpd higher than the previous record.

https://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/january4th2020usoilexportsasofdecember27.jpg

Comment: I completely missed it. And I bet most Americans completely missed it. From the EIA, weekly exports: too many graphics -- will move to stand-alone post.

**********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.94	1/7/2020	01/07/2019	01/07/2018	01/07/2017	01/07/2016
Active Rigs	56	64	54	39	54

Two wells coming off confidential list today: Tuesday, January 7, 2019, 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter; 23 for the year:

• 34364, conf, Petro Harvester, FLX4 17-18 163-90 H, 
• 33186, conf, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH,

RBN Energy: the 2020 outlook for Permian oil and gas markets.

With 2020 already in full swing, some things in the Permian Basin’s oil and natural gas markets have changed dramatically since this time last year, others not so much. When it comes to crude oil, new pipelines that came online during 2019 had a huge impact on differentials: Permian barrels are now pricing very close to other regional hubs, versus massive discounts a year ago.

That has enabled Permian producers to fully benefit from the recent run-up in global oil prices. On the gas side of things, the start of the new decade won’t look much different than the end of the last one. There is still way too much supply and not enough takeaway capacity. That means that regardless of what happens at Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark for natural gas prices, Permian producers should expect dismal values for their natural gas in 2020. Today, we take a look at the year ahead for Permian producers.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 7, 2020

Oh, let's start with this one -- it got CNN's attention. LOL.

Link here.

On impeachment: great op-ed. Senator Mike Lee -- "the Senate is not a jury." Google it over at Fox News. Helps me understand the process.

Article I, Section 3, Clause 6 of the Constitution does state that senators “shall be on Oath or Affirmation” when trying an impeachment. And that oath includes the promise to “do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws,” similar to the oath taken by ordinary juries.

But Article III, Section 2, Clause 3 specifically sets impeachment apart from jury trials, providing that “The trial of all crimes, except in cases of impeachment, shall be by jury.”

Why does the Constitution specifically separate juries from impeachment?

Because the authors of the Constitution knew impeachment – for good or ill – was an inherently political act. James Wilson, one of the nation’s first Supreme Court justices and one of the principal architects of the Constitution, described impeachment as “confined to political characters, to political crimes and misdemeanors, and to political punishments.”

On the Democrats and Iran: great op-ed. Senator Joe Lieberman, WSJ. He begins:

President Trump’s order to take out Qasem Soleimani was morally, constitutionally and strategically correct. It deserves more bipartisan support than the begrudging or negative reactions it has received thus far from my fellow Democrats.

The president’s decision was bold and unconventional. It’s understandable that the political class should have questions about it. But it isn’t understandable that all the questions are being raised by Democrats and all the praise is coming from Republicans. That divided response suggests the partisanship that has infected and disabled so much of U.S. domestic policy now also determines our elected leaders’ responses to major foreign-policy events and national-security issues, even the killing of a man responsible for murdering hundreds of Americans and planning to kill thousands more.