First this comment: the "pie" week-over-week was about the same -- the "pie" being the total global demand for petroleum.
So, these are the questions that need to be asked:
- why the 31% increase in US crude oil exports, week-over-week?
- was it an anomaly or will it be sustained?
- if the "pie" is relatively unchanged, whose slice of the pie got a lot smaller?
- don't say Venezuela, Mexico, Libya, Iran, etc: those countries have been under the "gun" for several years now
- or, are some buyers (e.g., China) stockpiling; was there a huge demand last week as we closed out the year; China, others expecting much higher prices going forward?
- was it simply an anomaly -- it doesn't take many VLCC to account for a jump in exports?
- do the Permian pipelines / new export terminals along the Texas/Louisiana coast explain it?
- global refineries now prefer light, sweet oil?
- IMO 2020?
- are we exporting raw materials so that other countries can refine it and sell the refined products at a premium? Is the US missing a refining opportunity? Think exporting cotton to England where they made textiles to sell back to the colonies
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