Week 1: December 29, 2019 -- January 4, 2020

International non-energy:

• US kills Iranian top general;

International energy:

• US returns as net oil exporter; and, here;

National non-energy:

• Market surge;  
• AAPL hits $300.50;
• US awards most expensive shipbuilding contract ever;

National energy:

• WTI surges; 

North Dakota non-energy:

• North Dakota hits all-time record population;

North Dakota energy:

• NGLs come to the rescue for the Bakken -- RBN Energy;

Geoff Simon's top ND energy stories:

• DAPL expansion awaits action in three states: ND, SD, and IL;
• Labor union supports DAPL expansion in Illinois
• ND Public Service Commission has set public hearing for Denbury CO2 pipeline project
• ND traffic deaths: less than 100; if the preliminary figure holds, first time in 17 years that ND recorded less than 100 traffic fatalities; per capita, even more remarkable;

Operations:

• A BR Lillibridge-Veeder well goes over 500K;
• An Enerplus "Metamorphic Rock" pad well goes over 500K;
• Petroshale getting ready to frack Bear Den wells?
• A staggering Bruin well in the Antelope-Sanish;

Fracking:

• Re-fracking; 
• Re-fracking: an incredible CLR Mountain Gap well;

Bakken, commentary:

• Breakdown of NDIC oil and gas permits, CY 2019;
• Third lowest number of permits issued in the past nine years;

Miscellaneous:

• Top stories for 2019;

EV Scorecard -- 4Q19

For background, see this note: Volts, Colts, Bolts, And Dolts -- December 29, 2019.

We now have the first quarterly numbers. And there's not much there.

Tesla Model 3:

• 3Q19: 44,000
• 4Q19: 47,275

Tesla Model X:

• 3Q19: 4,725
• 4Q19: 5,500

Tesla Model S:

• 3Q19: 4,725
• 4Q19: 3,125 (down 32%)

Chevrolet Bolt:

• 3Q19: 4,830
• 4Q19: 3,307

Chevrolet Volt:

• 3Q19: 874
• 4Q19: 370

From CNBC:

 GM on Friday said it sold nearly 2.9 million vehicles last year, a 2.3% decline compared with 2018. That includes a drop of 6.3% to 735,909 vehicles in the fourth quarter from the last three months of 2018. 

This was the only mention GM's EVs:

GM’s overall sales for the year were also impacted by the discontinuation of several passenger car models, including the Chevrolet Volt, Chevrolet Cruze and Buick LaCrosse.

I'm not sure if Ford has reported yet.
Pretty disingenuous.

CNBC did not mention the decline in sales of their "new" EV, the Bolt (see above). And even so, a decline in Volt sales from 874 to 370 would hardly be noteworthy. 

Equinor Reports Completion Of Fourteen DUCs; Six Wells Came Off Confidential List -- January 3, 2020

Active wells:

$63.05	1/3/2020	01/03/2019	01/03/2018	01/03/2017	01/03/2016
Active Rigs	55	65	53	39	60

Two new permits, #37302 - #37303, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Big Gulch (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for a two-well LK-Bice pad in section 7-147-96, Big Gulch oil field

Six wells came off the confidential list today:

• 34173, 911, CLR, Ravin 5-11H2, Dimmick Lake, t7/19; cum 62K 11/19;
• 34383, SI/NC, BR, Veeder 3B TFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 34384, SI/NC, BR, Veeder 3A MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 35724, 841, Nine Point Energy, State 154-102-25-36-8H, Rosebud, t7/19; cum 93K 11/19;
• 35780, 1,517, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-6, Baskin, t7/19; cum 85K 11/19;
• 35781, 1,435, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-5, Baskin, t7/19; cum 64K 11/9;

Fourteen producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: all Equinor wells -- two in McKenzie County; twelve in Williams County; the daily activity reports fifteen DUCs reported, but one, #34675, was listed twice:

• 34675, 589, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 6TFH, Todd, t9/19; cum 24K 11/19;
• 34674, 759, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 5H, Todd, t10/19; cum 25K 11/19;
• 33613, 1,712, Equinor, Broderson 30-31F 8TFH, Banks, t8/19; cum 28K 11/19;
• 33615, 2,397, Equinor, Broderson 30-31F 7H, Banks, t8/19; cum 40K 11/19;
• 33611, 2,547, Equinor, Broderson 30-31F 5H, Banks, t8/19; cum 44K 11/19;
• 33573, 719, Equinor, Elmer Hovland 23-14 XE, 1H, East Fork, t10/19; cum 14K 11/19;
• 33578, 790, Equinor, Allison 23-14 XW 1TFH, East Fork, t7/19; cum 44K 11/19;
• 33571, 753, Equinor, Allison 23-14 8TFH, East Fork, t8/19; cum 39K 11/19;
• 33569, 1,074, Equinor, Allison 23-14 7H, East Fork, t9/19; cum 49K 11/19;
• 33567, 916, Equinor, Allison 23-14 6TFH, East Fork, t8/19; cum 52K 11/19;
• 33565, 1,074, Equinor, Allison 23-14 5H, East Fork, t8/19; cum 60K 11/19;
• 33563, 756, Equinor, Allison 23-14 4TFH, East Fork, t8/19; cum 39K 11/19;
• 33576, 1,244, Equinor, Allison 23-14 3H, East Fork, t7/19; cum 76K 11/19;
• 23036, 455, Equinor, Allison 23-14 2TFH, East Fork, t7/19; cum 31K 11/19;

Well, I Guess We Have The Top Story For 2020 -- January 3, 2020

By the way, I was unable to find any update regarding the articles of impeachment. Paywall: US takes out top Iranian terrorist. Why was he in Iraq? Whatever.

Articles of impeachment: it seems this would be the best time to send over to the US Senate the articles of impeachment. 

Dow futures: down 300 points. The big question: how do the oil stocks "react"? Futures, 5:29 a.m. CT, January 3, 2020:

• COP: down 51 cents; after closing up 43 cents yesterday
• CVX: up 1.17% after closing up almost a dollar yesterday; futures at $122.85
• XOM: up 1.27% in futures, after closing up $1.12 yesterday; trading at $71.80
• OXY: up 2.56%, after trading up 3.32% yesterday; now at $43.67
• EOG: up 1.05%, after trading up 0.45% yesterday; now at $85.02

Geo-political, three words -- Strait of Hormuz.

Southern surge: US begins returning asylum seekers at Arizona border to Mexico. Paywall. Maybe this will satisfy Ann Coulter.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection for the first time Thursday began turning around migrants seeking asylum in Arizona and sending them to Nogales, Mexico, to await U.S. court hearings that they now will need to get to on their own.

The move expands the controversial Migrant Protection Protocols or “Remain in Mexico” program, which the U.S. adopted a year ago to deal with a surge of Central American migrants at the southern border. Immigrant and human-rights advocates have criticized the policy for effectively requiring migrants to live in dangerous Mexican border cities, often for months, where the U.S. warns its own citizens to avoid traveling.

Border Patrol, a CBP agency that handles law enforcement between ports of entry, said it has returned to Nogales 18 migrants who crossed the border on Thursday. Their immigration court dates were set in El Paso, Texas, more than 300 miles away.

Since late November, more than 600 asylum seekers crossing the border near Tucson, Arizona, were transported by U.S. authorities on buses to El Paso, where they were then sent just across the border to Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, and assigned court dates often months in the future.

Now, the migrants returned to Nogales must arrange their own transportation to attend asylum hearings. On the Mexican side of the border, the journey from Nogales to Juárez takes significantly longer—about 371 miles, or nearly eight hours by car, according to Google Maps, about three hours longer than the drive takes on the U.S. side.

The kneeling is over? NFL ratings increase for second straight year. Paywall.

Ratings for National Football League games rose 5% in 2019, making it the most-watched season since 2016, the league said. During the 2019 regular season, an average of 16.5 million people tuned in to watch NFL games, according to Nielsen data cited by the league. This is the second straight season of viewership growth for the NFL, after it lost a chunk of viewers in 2017.

WTI Soars After US Takes Out Top Iranian Terrorist -- January 3, 2020

This was posted after events in Baghdad, Iraq, January 2, 2020. 

Active rigs:

$63.77	1/3/2020	01/03/2019	01/03/2018	01/03/2017	01/03/2016
Active Rigs	53	65	53	39	60

Five new permits, #37296 - #37301, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: East Fork (Williams)
• Comments:
• CLR permits for a 5-well Irgens Rexall pad in lot 4 / setion 19-156-99, East Fork oil field;

Three wells reporting today:

• 35571, SI/NC, Whiting, Anderson 41-7TFH, Sanish, t--; cum 92K 11/19;
• 35876, 695, Whiting, Domaskin24-17TFH, Sanish, t7/19; cum 35K 11/19;
• 35877, 982, Whiting, Domaskin 31-20HU, Sanish, t7/19; cum 35K 11/19;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36321, 1,083, Whiting, Jones 12-8HU, Sanish, t12/19; cum 7 over 9 days;
• 35023, 1,348, Whiting, Vance Federal 14-9H, Truax, t11/19; cum 13K over 12 days;
• 35278, 1,568, WHiting, Vance 41-17-2H. Truax, t11/19; cum 30K over 30 days;
• 35026, 1,444, Whiting, Vance 14-9-3H, Truax, t11/19; cum 8K over 10 days;
• 35897, 2,116, Slawson, Slasher Federa 5-27-32TFH, Big Bend, t12/19; cum --;