Thursday, March 29, 2018

Unemployment LOWEST In 45 Years -- President Trump Not Mentioned In The Article -- March 29, 2018

Econoday link:
  • prior revised: from 229K to 227K (better)
  • forecast for past week: 228K
  • actual: 215K -- wow!
  • new claims: a decrease of 12,000 
Pretty amazing. Lowest since January, 1973.

Waiting for the Trump tweet.

And President Trump won't get any credit.

And again, the word I seem to hear every time these great reports come out: "unexpectedly."

From Bloomberg:
U.S. filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level since January 1973, further evidence that the labor market remains tight, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.
  • jobless claims decreased by 12k to 215k (est. 230k)
  • continuing claims rose by 35k to 1.87m in week ended March 17 (data reported with one-week lag)
  • four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 224,500 from the prior week's 225,000
 With regard to the graphic and January, 1973, above: it looks like the '60's came to an end in 1973.

Meanwhile, with regard to consumer sentiment:


Posted by at

Taxable Sales And Purchases -- North Dakota-- 2017 Data Released -- Not Fake News But Incredibly Poor Headline / Poor Reporting

To the reader who sent me the link/story:
Wow, wow, wow -- what a poor headline.

2017 over 2016:
Every major city in ND showed negative  change 2017 over 2016 EXCEPT Dickinson and Williston. Even Minot showed a slight decrease. Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks -- all negative.

Williston: 24% increase in taxable sales and purchases year-over-year.
The only reason ND was even positive by 3% was due completely to the Bakken.

Even Minot was slightly negative. 

The full PDF tables are here.
I will come back to this later when I have more time. Blogging will be delayed today.

I am not sure if all links work but we will get that sorted out later.

This is the reason for being behind in blogging. Re-reading an expert's analysis of the Bakken. I'm trying to see what I missed. It will take me most of the day to get through that report.

Posted by at
Labels: , ,

Active Rigs Hold Steady At 62 -- March 29, 2018

Updates

Later, 9:32 p.m. Central Time: this is why I love to blog. I thought someone would "call me" on my habit of calculating "deals" on a per-net-acre basis. It turns out I'm not the only one. See this post over at oilprice.com:
To be sure, investors were not exactly enthused by the deal, which amounted to a greater than $70,000 per-acre price tag.
Original Post
 
Permian consolidation. This may be the biggest news of the day in the shale sector: Permian oil producer to buy rival RSP Permian.
  • $8 billion; all stock deal
  • RSP:29% premium for shareholders
  • 92,000 net acres
  • will make Concho one of the biggest producers in the Bakken
  • Permian could report as much as 3 million bopd in March, 2018
  • back-of-the-envelope: $8 billion / 92,000 acres = $87,000 / acre 
***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.32→3/29/201803/29/201703/29/201603/29/201503/29/2014
Active Rigs62493197194

RBN Energy: why $3 natural gas continues to elude the market.
Posted by at

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

CLR's Syracuse And Chicago Wells Soon To Come Off The Confidential List -- Nice Wells -- Banks Oil Field -- March 28, 2018

Updates

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --
  • 23050, 954, CLR, Syracuse 3-23H, Banks, looks like a nice well; see below; all NG being sold; t10/12; cum 360K 12/20; off line starting in 10/19; back on line 12/19;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20182028993132256253475218129
BAKKEN3-201831548054215405100159825190
BAKKEN2-20182246464465522777756940835
BAKKEN1-2018287432774868021368812785903
BAKKEN12-20173110302101571427617655153632292
BAKKEN11-201717215568455585580
BAKKEN10-2017104786452027617610
BAKKEN9-20173017481736777280528050
BAKKEN8-201731184620568853031295972
BAKKEN7-20173118731682865308130810

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --
  • 23051, 505, CLR, Syracuse 4-23H, Banks, t10/12; cum 338K 12/20;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2018305187526010027748538863599
BAKKEN3-20182227952461777134783355123
BAKKEN2-20182810727110501949520471179122559
BAKKEN1-20181911078106871852420626165204106
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-201713695994467224822480
BAKKEN9-201730197020051269537053700
BAKKEN8-20173118231698114739753855120
BAKKEN7-20173114041315942335333530
BAKKEN6-201730117713441056374237420


June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well comes off confidential list today.  This page has been update including results of two recently fracked wells (scroll to bottom).

April 22, 2018: see update at this post.

March 29, 2017: stand-alone post for this well at this post.
  • 19740, 646, CLR, Syracuse 1-23H, Banks, t7/11; cum 509K 12/20;
According to FracFocus it has not been re-fracked. Here's the recent production data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2018281124511321171741891918066853
BAKKEN1-20182716833162272345231462236967766
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201715690976405157215720
BAKKEN8-20173117681710962406740670
BAKKEN7-201731177716951028422642260
BAKKEN6-201730191520141092453045300
BAKKEN5-201731235124321335471847180
BAKKEN4-20172815391343880271927190

Original Post 

Back on February 20, 2018 -- about a month ago -- I noted that an old CLR Chicago well (#19590) might be interesting to follow up in a few months.

The well:
  • 19590, 540, CLR, Chicago 1-26H, Banks, t5/11; cum 377K 10/19;
FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked; nor is there any sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked. The recent production data certainly suggests it was re-fracked, but if it has, I don't see the evidence yet.

Note the recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20182810086101231305717610162101400
BAKKEN1-20183016821162482338127791208916900
BAKKEN12-2017413331259310226402264
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201713500673289142814280
BAKKEN8-20173115831999910405940590
BAKKEN7-2017166300547132913263
BAKKEN6-201715499588272171117110

Now, to check the neighboring wells.

The graphic:



It turns out that the neighboring wells have been fracked, and their initial production numbers are quite good.

First, the most recent one that has come off the confidential list, only 580 feet to the east:
  • 30159, 2,609, CLR, Chicago 6-26H1, Banks, Three Forks, 57 stages; 7.5 million lbs, API - 33-053-06529; Banks, t2/18; cum 223K 10/19; according to FracFocus, fracked 11/8/2017 - 11/26/2017;
Initial production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-201828424484252835661687625531613446
BAKKEN1-20181011200109531110023525184255100
BAKKEN12-20172211320382663383003830

But that was a Three Forks well and the parent well was a middle Bakken well. What about the other three wells (#30160, #30158, and #30161)? Yes, they have all been fracked and all have great production numbers, but are still on the confidential list. But note, only one of the three will run south, #30161:

30160, Syracuse, Three Forks, runs north:
  • 30160, 1,650, Syracuse 6-23H1, Banks, t1/18; cum 232K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20183426355487
1-20181380619512
12-201724140

30158, Syracuse, runs north:
  • 30158, 1,404, CLR, Syracuse 5-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 323K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20184610553898
1-20181053314256
12-201729350

30161, Chicago, runs south:
  • 30161, 2,004, Chicago 5-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 253K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20182764246985
1-20181396116767
12-201730310

What about the other two to the west? They, too, have been fracked and are great wells. One will run south, and one will run north:

29798, Chicago, runs south:
  • 29798, 1,916, CLR, Chicago 7-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 329K 10/19;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830295132921517750763232497251351
BAKKEN3-201831339703389618632644374903715400
BAKKEN2-20182839691398032106970746651855561
BAKKEN1-201830419674151526835738105612817682
BAKKEN12-20171173116394151123501235


30168, Syracuse, will run north:
  • 30168, 2,107, CLR, Syracuse 7-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 378K 12/20;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830289622857013908806393519445445
BAKKEN3-201831318443186313120650905095914131
BAKKEN2-20182836006358461395061898586353263
BAKKEN1-201830440784406620186753595428721072
BAKKEN12-2017627742492555499304993
Posted by at
Labels: ,

Put Another Log On The Fire -- Another Bakken Story -- Re-Accomplishing A Failed Frack -- MRO In Bailey Oil Field, #19553 -- March 28, 2018

An example of "saving" a well in the Bakken. 

The well:
  • 19553, 42 (no typo), MRO, Lucy Fleckenstein 34-20H, API - 33-025-01165, Bailey, t5/11; cum 222K 1/18; failed frack in 2011; in 2014, the decision was made to "sidetrack" this well, going down the existing well-bore and punching out at 11,449 feet. This they did, re-fracked with 30 stages and 3.9 million lbs sand, and reported an IP of 2,491 on 2/26/2015. 
  • Note: they re-fracked this well at the same time they fracked a number of wells in the immediate area
Production profile of interest:
BAKKEN9-201530692768894544491619622033
BAKKEN8-20153174177426469756654338352
BAKKEN7-20153166956785429646162984730
BAKKEN6-2015301107810952641264894568566
BAKKEN5-20151458345990479532492302244
BAKKEN4-201530127161258712226881045832686
BAKKEN3-2015311476515758119311659993855454
BAKKEN2-20151118827176565321412736478409
BAKKEN1-20151200000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-2014112340101
BAKKEN9-201428332464483440149
BAKKEN8-201431319228253630143
BAKKEN7-201431328224233680147


Put Another Log On The Fire, Tompall Glaser
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)