Wednesday, October 21, 2015

A Minnesota Town That Lives Up To Its Name, Thanks To Green (?) Stinky Energy; Governor Pens Letter To BSNF -- October 21, 2015

ONEOK increases its quarterly dividend.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read or think you might have read at this site or this post or this blog. Whatever.

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Governor Says He Didn't Get The Memo 
Though His Regulatory Agencies Did

Disclaimer: there will be many typographical, and possibly factual, errors on this page. I did it quickly and did not have time to proofread it more than once.

TheStarTrib is reporting:
Gov. Mark Dayton has told BNSF Railway’s top executive that he is “deeply concerned” about the recent increase in Bakken oil trains on western suburban tracks into downtown Minneapolis, saying it puts an additional 99,000 people at risk.
In a letter to CEO Carl Ice, the governor asked the railroad not to operate oil trains on the line that passes Target Field when events are underway, to extend first-responder training to all communities along the route and assess it for a worst-case accident.
BNSF, the major crude oil hauler out of North Dakota, recently disclosed in a mandatory report to the state that 11 to 23 crude oil trains per week are using the route from Willmar, MN, through suburbs like Wayzata and St. Louis Park into Minneapolis and across the Mississippi River at Nicollet Island.
Dayton said he was concerned that BNSF did not inform him or his staff about the route change. BNSF spokeswoman Amy McBeth said in an e-mail that BNSF will be talking directly with the governor about his concerns. She did not say whether BNSF will consider halting oil trains during Target Field events, but noted that crude oil has been shipped along the corridor at lower volumes. [Wait until BNSF halts trains on the tracks leading into / out of Minneapolis for hours at a time.]
“BNSF has multiple routes in the metro area that we utilize for hauling a variety of commodities,” McBeth said. “Volumes and routes can fluctuate for a number of reasons. In all areas of the metro region where we move crude oil and other hazmat, we take a number of steps to reduce risk.”
The article does say that the governor's favorite fuel, ethanol, more volatile than Bakken crude oil, is also carried by these same trains through Minneapolis. Apparently the governor has no concern with ethanol by rail. Memo to self: google Minnesota ethanol production.

I did not read the entire article but I did not see any mention that had Minnesota expedited approval of the Sandpiper pipeline, Governor Dayton might not have had to write the letter, saving some paper and perhaps a tree. Meanwhile, the Sandpiper appears to be dead, keystoned by Minnesota officials. So the trains will continue.

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Just In Time For Halloween 
Perfect Plant For Decorating

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Minnesota, they have built a stinky "poop plant" to generate electricity from food waste. You have to read well into the article to find that for the privilege of this mess, taxpayers and consumers are paying what it would have cost/MW to build a nuclear power plant.

Deep, deep in the article we learn that this monstrosity generates maybe 8 MW of electricity -- my hunch is that this is  rounded up from five or six MW. At $45 million (the stated price -- again, it was probably rounded down and we don't know the on-going operating cost), that $45 million / 8 MW translates into an incredible $6 million / MW (rounded).

This is the going cost for new utility plants: 
From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":
  • Solar: $3 million / MW
  • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
  • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW
This stinky plant in Le Sewer, MN, is costing almost twice what a small solar farm would cost, or a small wind farm, and five or six times what a natural gas plant would cost.

At least everyone feels good, even if they don't smell good.

If that link breaks, google:
– Nearly two years after going online, an innovative, municipally owned power plant that burns methane from agricultural waste is generating only a faction of its promised electricity.
The $45 million plant, built partly with federal aid in this city 50 miles southwest of Minneapolis, also is producing something its promoters said it wouldn’t — stink.
More:
The plant, largely funded with municipal-backed bonds and $8 million in federal aid, has generated controversy from the beginning.
My hunch is that the plant will not be operating five years from now. And those bonds? WHOOPS.

The more you read of that stinking article, the worst it gets:
Most methane plants reach 50 percent of their operating capacity in a few months. Yet not all have been a success. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 54 farm-based projects have been shut down, including nine in Wisconsin. A manure-based plant in Dane County, WI, that leaked liquid waste and emitted stinky hydrogen sulfide paid an $80,000 state penalty in July, court records show. [It appears Wisconsin has shut down more environmentally-unfriendly waste energy plants than there are fracking sand mines in the state. And all this time I thought folks who "fought" sand mines in Wisconsin were environmentally serious. My bad.]
You have to read to the very end of the article to find out how much this stinker actually produces:
Although the Hometown BioEnergy plant is large compared with other biogas plants — 8 million watts of output — it’s a small part of MMPA’s generating capacity, which includes large natural gas-fired units. In 2014, the biogas plant produced just 0.3 percent of the electricity MMPA supplied to the 12 cities that own the power agency.
One of the goals of the project is to meet the state mandate for utilities to get 25 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2025.
The plant produced 0.3 percent just to 12 cities -- it would be interesting to know the population it served. Le Sewer, home of the "Jolly Green Giant," has a population of about 5,000 (prior to the stink). The city cities on a county line and the combined population of the two counties is about 20,000 people. Minnesota state population is 5.5 million. 20,000 / 5,500,000 = 0.36%. Therefore, this stinky plant unlikely produced more than 0.001% of all the electricity consumed by residential customers in Minnesota.

As the Chinese say, a 1,000-mile trek starts with the first trek. The Chinese didn't say anything about stepping in poop to make that first step.

Later: after posting this story, a reader sent me additional information about how bad these "on-farm renewable energy science experiments" really are. It makes bird flu and hog farm run-off look tame in comparison.  Sometimes I think the Saudis did us a favor dropping the price of oil to $30, and US frackers dropping the price of natural gas to $2.50 -- drive out these alternate energy projects which are simply awful.

Nine (9) New Permits; HRC Reports A Nice Bakken Well; 2/5 Bakken Wells Reported As DUCs -- October 21, 2015

Active rigs:


10/21/201510/21/201410/21/201310/21/201210/21/2011
Active Rigs68191182186195

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 27002, 1,235, HRC, Nelson 157-100-25A-36-4H, Marmon, 33 stages, 4 million lbs, t4/15; cum 68K 8/15;
  • 28530, 1,068, Hess, LK-Trotter-146-97-3625H-2, Little Knife, drilling rig, June 3, 2015; TD, June 14, 2015; 10' window approx 19' into the middle Bakken; gas as high as 9,500 units; t9/15; cum 9K 8/15;
  • 29624, SI/NC, SM Energy, Dohmstriech 15B-20HN, Musta, no production data,
  • 29993, 888, Triangle USA, Lee 151-101-8-5-10TFH, Ragged Butte, 31 stages, 4 million lbs, t4/15; cum 36K 8/15; (note: wrong sundry form scanned into this file; #29333 was scanned in)
  • 31030, SI/NC, EOG, Shell 52-1930H, Parshall, no production data,
Nine (9) new permits --
  • Operators: EOG (6), Hess (3)
  • Fields: Clarks Creek (McKenzie), Capa (McKenzie)
  • Comments: the Clarks Creek permits are for a 6-well pad in section 25-152-95. See graphic at this post
Enerplus renewed two permits, a Walleye permit and a Giraffe permit, both in Dunn County.

This is interesting. Hess changed the name on two wells:
  • 29130, was changed to BW-Johnson-149-99-1003H-6 (from BW-Johnson-LE-149-99-1003H-1PNC)
  • 29931, was changed to AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-1 (from AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-1PNC)
  • comment: I vaguely remember seeing something along this line in one of the recent NDIC hearing docket agendas.
For those keeping score at home: there were no reports of producing wells completed.

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29993, see above, Triangle USA, Lee 151-101-8-5-10TFH, Ragged Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201530430
7-2015108050
6-201550700
5-201589000
4-201582370

27002, see above, HRC, Nelson 157-100-25A-36-4H, Marmon:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201589504967
7-20151628611565
6-20152137317624
5-2015139059349
4-201560701789

Random Example Of Increased Density Work -- October 21, 2015

Updates

October 28, 2015: EOG has permits for a 10-well megapad in the section below in which EOG has permits for another 6-well pad.

October 23, 2015: in the graphic below, where "another proposed 6-well EOG Hawkeye pad" is going, add four (4) more wells.  

Original Post
Increased density work, noted in the daily activity report, October 21, 2015.

There are some incredible wells in this area: search for #22484 or #22486 in the blog.



In the graphic above, the star-shaped area is expanded below:



The darker area represents Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. This is the general area (the reservation) that more pipelines are needed to help gather and process natural gas, but the FBIR wants $10 million / mile of pipeline. ONEOK scrapped plans for the pipeline. Previously posted.

Seeking Alpha Article On EOG; Qatar Is World's Largest LNG Exporter -- October 21, 2015

EOG Data Points

The linked article at Seeking Alpha is for the operational data points regarding EOG. It is not for investment purposes.
EOG has historically and continues to grow its reserves and drilling inventory rapidly. In 2015 alone, EOG added 960 net drilling locations and 600 MMboe of potential reserves in the Bakken. Its net potential reserves in the Eagle Ford, which is either the first or second most economical play in the United States depending on how it is measured, are 3,200 MMBoe through net acreage of 561,000.
Core and non-core positions in the Bakken are 620 and 400 MMBoe respectively encompassing a total of 230,000 acres. The Delaware Basin position of 310,000 acres and approximately 1,350 MMboe is the other main drilling area. EOG also has smaller holdings in the DJ Basin, Powder River Basin, and Midland Basin Wolfcamp. Total remaining drilling locations add up to 11,000 and over 20 years of drilling capacity.
The firm is the largest oil producer and acreage holder in the Eagle Ford Shale. 92% of Q2 completions were on multi-well pad sites which improve economics considerably. 89% of the land is held by production providing significant flexibility. Most is positioned in the crude oil window portion of the formation and subsequently production is 78% liquids, 12% natural gas, and 10% NGLs.

Upstream firms must recognize substantial cost savings if they have any hope of maintaining production levels without eating a hole through their balance sheet. EOG's completed well costs in the Bakken have declined from $8.8 million in 2014 to $7.1 currently. Its near term target is even lower at $6.5 million. This 35% reduction in well costs helps mitigate a lot of oil's 50% decline. Average drilling time in the Bakken was 20.8 days in 2012 but averaged only 8.2 in Q2 2015 with the target closer to 5. While some costs will increase when oil recovers, many will not and it is easy to see how EOG could be positioned for seriously strong financial performance.

An important point is that EOG has continued drilling at a pace not far from earlier cycles. It is not, however, bringing all these wells online. It is slowly building an inventory of wells that will cost a fraction of a new well to bring online. In future periods, there is a high probability that per barrel costs will be much lower than average since prior periods absorbed a significant amount of the expenses. [We call them DUCs.]
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EIA's "Energy Cookie"
EIA "energy cookie":
Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world. The country’s exports of LNG, crude oil, and petroleum products provide a significant portion of government revenues…Qatar is also at the forefront of gas-to-liquids (GTL) production, and the country is home to the world’s largest GTL facility ---EIA
It will be interesting to see if this changes by 2030.

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A Top-10 List Nice Not To Be On
Minnesota Made The List

Kiplinger: ten (10) least tax-friendly states for retirees. I went through the list once. I can almost recall it from memory [2014]:
  • New York [#10, same in 2014]
  • New Jersey #9, same in 2014]
  • Nebraska [#8, same in 2014]
  • California [#7, same in 2014]
  • Montana (surprising)[ #6, same in 2014]
  • Oregon (not surprising)[#5, same in 2014]
  • Minnesota (not surprising) [#4, same in 2014]
  • Rhode Island [#1 in 2014]
  • Connecticut [#3 in 2014]
  • Vermont (not surprised it's on the list; surprised it's #1) [#2 in 1014]
What happened to Massachusetts?

Kemp's Weekly Fossil Fuel Tweets -- October 21, 2015; Fascinating Observations

Residual fuel oil stocks trending higher; at highest seasonal level since 2006.

Propane stocks appear to be peaking but still at record; + 20 million bbls above prior-eyar level.

US distillate stocks draw hard (-2.6 million bbls) eroding surplus over 2014 9(+19.3 million bbls) and 10-year average (+14.9 million bbls).

US gasoline stocks only slightly higher than last year once adjusted for increased consumption.

US gasoline stocks fell -1.5 million bbls; second consecutive decline, as refineries work down excess inventories.

US gasoline consumption averaged 9.1 million bopd over last four weeks, which is +272,000 bopd above prior year level. Saudi got us hooked on gasoline again.

US refinery throughput edged up +78,000 bopd as refiners reach the mid-point of maintenance season.

US crude oil imports are running high during maintenance season with surplus going into refinery/merchant storage.

Rise in crude oil stock was driving by continued strong flow of import s (7.5 milion bopd) despite refinery maintenance.

US commercial crude oil stocks jumped by another 8.0 million bopd last week, taking four-week gain to +22.6 million bbls. The refiners like that inexpensive foreign oil.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

After finishing The Catcher In The Rye, I googled "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" "Catcher in the Rye". Here are some of the hits: