April Fool's Joke Coming Out Of The Office Of The Department Of The Interior -- April 1, 2015

Obama and the Arctic: drill, baby, drill. At the link, see the April 1, 2015, update. It must be an April Fool's joke coming from the Department of the Interior. LOL.

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Meanwhile ...

The EIA blurb for the day:

For 2014, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that, excluding Iran, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned about $730 billion in net oil export revenues (unadjusted for inflation).

This represents an 11% decline from the $824 billion earned in 2013, largely because of the decline in average annual crude oil prices, and to a lesser extent from decreases in the amount of OPEC net oil exports. --- EIA

Wow, a 11% decline in 2014 -- and the slump in prices occurred late in the year. Imagine what 2015 will bring for OPEC. I wonder if Jane Nielson is following this story?

Reason #897 Why I Love To Blog -- Helps Put The Bakken Into Perspective -- April 1, 2015

Had I not been blogging on the Bakken all these years, this story would not have meant much to me. I probably wouldn't have read it in the first place, but that's another story.

I would not have read this story had it not been for the headline: new technology. I was curious what Apache's new technology was. Unfortunately, the article does not provide any insight.

Apache Corp over at Rigzone is reporting:

Five wells, including the discovery wells, have been completed to date by Khalda Petroleum Company, Apache's joint-venture company with EGPC. All five wells are producing without the need for fracture stimulation at a combined rate of more than 13,600 barrels of oil per day (bopd) with first production starting in November 2014. The wells have produced approximately 1 million barrels of oil to date. Apache has invested $14 million to install production facilities and plans to invest another $35 million to handle the forecasted production increase.

The Ptah field started producing light oil from the Paleozoic-aged Shiffah Formation in December 2014. This field also has substantial target zones logged in the AEB-3D/-3E formations that have yet to be tested. In the Shiffah, the field discovery well (Ptah-1X) is currently producing 2,350 bopd and a second well (Ptah-3X) started production in March 2015 at a rate of 2,000 bopd. Shiffah pay zones have averaged 130 feet while the AEB-3D/-3E formations yet to be completed have logged an average net oil pay section of 65 feet. Further appraisal drilling and AEB-3D/-3E production testing will be conducted with the Ptah-4X and Ptah-6 to further define the field size and reserves.

Drilling depth to the deeper Shiffah is approximately 13,800 feet, while the AEB-3D/-3E targets average a depth of 11,000 feet. Completed-well costs are expected to average around $3.7 million for Shiffah wells and $2.5 million for the AEB-3D/-3E wells.

So, some data points:

• Egypt
• two new oil fields discovered in the Western Desert: the Berenice and Ptah fields
• development leases approved by Egypt in record time: 13 days (Berenice); 6 days (Ptah)
• no need for fracture stimulation
• five wells: 13,600 bopd 
• pay zone: Shiffah formation, 130 feet (compare with Bakken formations of 4 - 30 feet)
• pay zone: AEB-3D/-3E, at least 65 feet thick on average
• drilling depth, Shiffah: 13,800 feet (compare to 9,000 for middle Bakken; deeper for TF)
• drilling depth, AEB-3D/-3E: 11,000 feet (comparable to deeper middle Bakken/TF wells)
• cost: Shiffah, $3.7 million; AEB, $2.5 million (compare to $6 million minimum for Bakken/TF wells)

A Well Worth Following -- April 1, 2015

A well that might be interesting to follow over time:

• 21386, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope, TF second bench, 3-well pad, two dual laterals, 

From the file report:

... consisting of two 4,504 - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south; the first later accessing the TF 2 was completed November 11, 2014; the second lateral penetrated the Middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014; the second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the Middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole; the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals; very little background gas (20 - 50 units) were noted in the first half of the first lateral; lack of permeability and porosity suggested that a strong response to hydraulic fracturing will be needed to unlock the TF 2. Despite the low levels of drilling gas, other wells from the area drawing from the Sanish pool have performed admirably. The ideal target zone (Middle Bakken) was defined as a 20-foot interval; background gas much higher at 1,000 to 1,500 units; even averaging 2,500 units during connections. Summary: the Panzer 2-20MLH was the first of 3 wellheads with 6 total lateral objectives to be compled on the panzer pad, with the cmoplete dual-lateral well reaching completion onf November 27, 2014. The TF2 appears to be less promising than the middle Bakken in this area. The spacing unit is 320 acres; this was originally a Slawson permit; this permit has been renewed at least three times; original Slawson permit was dated 9/1/11. 

See graphic and spacing below.

Putting Things Into Perspective -- April 1, 2015

Updates

Later, 11:04 p.m. CT: four deaths. 
 

Original Post

I am not aware of any CBR deaths in the US but I could be wrong.

However, the Gulf of Mexico? Here we go again.

Daily Mail is reporting:

A fire broke out on an oil platform belonging to Mexico’s state Pemex petroleum giant in the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the evacuation of about 300 workers. According to the company at least one person has died and 16 have been injured.

Pemex said on Twitter that the fire on the Abkatun Permanente platform in the oil-rich Campeche Bay broke out overnight and eight firefighting boats were tackling the blaze. 

And we haven't even begun talking about the environmental disaster yet to be reported.

I'll be off the net for awhile; there may be more to the story that I missed but that's my knee-jerk response. I may be way off-base here.

Auto Sales Fall, Year-Over-Year In March, 2015 -- April 1, 2015

I always find it amazing how quickly the automobile manufacturers can get their monthly statistics posted. They always manage to do it the day after the end of the month. Think about that. Yesterday, at 4:00 p.m. in California folks were signing for new cars, and today, first thing, American auto manufacturers already have the data for March.

One of the big reasons why they can get his data out so fast: they do not give it to government bureaucrats who massage it, cross-check it, massage it again, until they get the number the administration is looking for.

I am also amazed how fast analysts can explain the data, having seen it for less than 24 hours. For example this explanation for the decrease in sales this March compared to last March:
" .... consumers who were slow to return to showrooms after a cold, snowy winter."
Really?

Had sales increased significantly, the analysts would have said, "the reason car sales surged in March, despite one less weekend, consumers were eager to get back to the show rooms after being cooped up indoors during much of this snowy winter."

This is what surprises me: March is coming out of winter, into spring. We should start to see more interest in cars -- every year, not just this year. But this year with gasoline prices bottoming out and everything suggesting gasoline prices will go even lower, consumers should be flocking to showrooms. Interest rates are still zero but there is talk that rates could rise; that should draw consumers into looking at big-ticket items sooner than later.

The one less weekend is a good explanation and that may account for the decrease in sales. 

The article linked above begins:

Sales declined for most automakers in March, including Ford and General Motors, even though the industry remains on track to sell about 17 million new cars and trucks this year -- the most since the Great Recession.

In March, weak industry were largely caused by one fewer weekend falling in the month compared with last year and consumers who were slow to return to showrooms after a cold, snowy winter.