Monday, July 21, 2014

Monday, Monday -- July 21, 2014; Stabilizers: The Next Big Story In The Bakken; Obama Administration Investing In Depleted Oil Fields In Texas

American Eagle, drilling in northwest North Dakota, announces operations update and reaffirms 2014 production guidance. A reader sent me the PDF link. Some key data points:
  • drilled a four-well pad in 62 days (when the Bakken boom began, it often took 60 days to drill one well); averaged less than 12 days from spud-to-total-depth;
  • brought twice as many Three Forks wells as middle Bakken wells to production
  • on track to meet or exceed 2014 exit rate of production guidance of over 3,000 boepd 
Faulty ignition switches: It would seem an ignition switch should be one of the more basic things that an automobile company could get right; it can't be that difficult. A reader asks if Government Motors can make any automobile without a faulty ignition switch. Bloomberg is reporting:
GM has told its dealers to halt the sale of some Cadillac models, mostly used cars, because the company doesn’t yet have a fix in place for a defective ignition switch.
The Detroit-based automaker issued an urgent order dated July 8 to its dealers to stop delivery of 2014 Cadillac CTS sedans that use a standard key ignition. The order didn’t apply to the newest models with a push-button start.
Active rigs in North Dakota: 


7/21/201407/21/201207/21/201107/21/201007/21/2009
Active Rigs19420718013740

RBN Energy: the second part in a series on stabilizer capacity in the Eagle Ford. This is an important article: this is the next big story in the Bakken.
In 2010 Enterprise Products Partners signed a ten-year agreement with Pioneer Natural Resources to transport, process and market their crude, gas and liquids production from the Eagle Ford. Today that agreement seems to have put Enterprise in the catbird seat after the Department of Commerce softened rules governing the export of lease condensate. 
Today in the second of a two part series we describe stabilizer capacity and export routes to market for Pioneer, Anadarko and ConocoPhillips in the Eagle Ford.
Pioneer is developing its Eagle Ford assets in a joint venture with Indian company Reliance Industries. That joint venture includes a midstream asset development company called EFS Midstream. EFS provide gas and liquids gathering, treating and transportation services for Pioneer and have built 12 central gathering plants (CGP’s) connected by more than 400 miles of pipeline. These central gathering plants each have condensate stabilizers. We don’t know the capacity on these units, or their configuration, but it seems reasonable to assume that these stabilization units must at least have capacity to handle Pioneer’s existing production of about 50 Mb/d in the Eagle Ford. 
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Inappropriate Exuberance

A couple of stories that again point out the staggering changes coming out of the American energy revolution. First, a story on CO2 injection to revive dying fields. I've reported on this before. Don has been following the technology story for years. Motley Fool  has a nice review:
It is estimated that there are 160 billion barrels of oil still trapped underneath this country in what are considered depleted oil fields. That's a tremendous amount of oil given that America uses about seven billion barrels of it each year. In fact, if we could only find the key to unlock this trapped oil we could extend fleeting our reserves by more than 22 years.
That's why it probably comes as a surprise to learn that we've already found the key we need to unlock this oil. That key is none other than discarded carbon dioxide, with the primary source of this practically prized greenhouse gas coming from none other than coal emissions. It's a stunning turn of events to say the least.
America has actually been flooding depleting oil fields with carbon dioxide since the 1970's. Most of the carbon dioxide used has come from naturally occurring sources. The problem is that carbon is costly as getting it from those sources to spent oil fields requires pipelines. But thanks to technological advances in carbon capture and storage we're beginning to see new investments that are directed to cleaning coal and using the captured carbon to produce more oil. It's this combination that has the potential to breathe new life into some of America's long dormant oil fields.  
A positive forward was taken when NRG Energy announced earlier this week that it began construction on a billion dollar retrofit to its East Texas coal-fired power plant. [Posted earlier at the blog.]
While the project is being underwritten in part by $167 million from the Department of Energy, NRG Energy sees it being self-liquidating as the carbon dioxide that is captured will be used to yield a 30-fold increase in oil production from an aging oil field NRG Energy also co-owns. 
A second story was sent to me this morning by a reader. The link takes you to an article in Forbes Magzine but much of it references Carpe Diem which references other sources:
It is a truly amazing feat of engineering and science that enables drillers today to bore a hole 2, 3 or even more miles vertically below the surface, then literally bend heavy steel pipe to drill another mile or more horizontally through very dense underground rock, and ultimately hit a target no bigger than a quarter.  Although the image of this industry that one typically sees portrayed on television or in the rare movie that deals with the subject matter is of wild, crude, hard-drinking, oil-covered roughnecks carelessly tossing around equipment at a filthy drilling sight, the truth about today’s drilling operations is that they are scrupulously clean, incredibly safety-conscious, and deploy a higher level of modern technology than almost any other industry on the face of the earth.  It really is too bad the public seldom gets to witness that reality.
The article goes on to repeat much of what has been reported here regularly and often, on the blog. A nice article for newbies to read; others to archive. 

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The Rise Of China

Regular readers know I feel strongly that Americans, including myself, are too myopic, concentrating too much on the US economy, forgetting China (and even India, for that matter). Don sent this interesting article over at Seeking Alpha on automobile sales in China. This one data point caught my eye:
Ford, for example, added 88 new dealerships in China in just one day in June (the 19th), and management expects to reach 800 dealer points in China by the end of this year.   
I don't invest in automobile companies, but I do invest in the oil and gas industry. 

I think the two big stories in 2050 will be a) water; and, b) energy. The Maldives will still be around.

For Monday, July 21, 2014; Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List; XTO With A Nice Well But That's About It; Many To DRL Status

Wells coming off the confidential list Monday and the weekend:

Monday, July 21, 2014:
  • 25867, drl, Hess, HA-Thompson 152-95-2017H-3, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 26274, 243, Fidelity, Dylan 22-15H, Stanley, t3/14; cum 14K 5/14;
  • 26987, drl, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny-155-93-2128H-7, Alger, no production data,
  • 27385, 75, Encuro, LDCMU 4-34-H1, Little Deep Creek, a Madison well, t3/14; cum 4K 5/14;
Sunday, July 20, 2014:
  • 25841, 469, Whiting, Babeck Federal 11-5PH, Park, t1/14; cum 18K 5/14;
  • 27178, 1,921, XTO, Cherry Creek State 44X-36D, Siverston, t6/14; no production data,
  • 27316, drl, Hess, EN-Joyce-2560-156-94-1720-1621H-3, Manitou, no production data,
  • 27348, drl, MRO, Winston 34-10TFH, Chimney Butte, no production data,
Saturday, July 19, 2014:
  • 24430, 410, Whiting, Talkington Federal 1-26PH,  Park, t1/14; cum 18K 5/14;
  • 25866, drl, Hess, HA-Thompson 152-95-2017H-4, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 26127, drl, XTO, Rita 24X-34A, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 26526, drl, CRL, Jerry 3-8H, Poe, no production data,
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The Wall Street Journal

Gaza battle deadliest in conflict to date: Israeli ground forces "waded" into Gaza's most densely populated city for the first time in nearly two weeks of fighting, destroying tunnels and drawing heavy fire from Hamas militants in the deadliest day of fighting for both sides since the conflict began. President Obama says he still supports Israel's right to defend itself. Okay.

The US leveled its most-explicit allegations yet of Russia's involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

EU at the tipping point: hit by the recession, a number of European governments cut capital spending on transportation, housing, education and other areas, a move that some experts say will harm economic growth.

James Garner's death, at age 86, made the front section news.

Hmmmm....anti-illegal immigration activists are organizing rallies across the country.

UN investigators move to take possession of Malaysian jet's black box. Black boxes aregenerally considered "tamper-proof." If Russia releases them, you know darn well there's nothing worth noting on the tapes, except the flight path and the altitude of the jet, both of which are already know by US intelligence.

Putin and the Kremlin have the Russian media on their side regarding the Malaysian jet shoot-down ... just like the Obama administration has mainstream media on its side in the US. I'm not sure why this is news.

Wow, at least five more articles on the shootdown. Provide perfect cover for Israeli operations in Gaza strip.

It turns out that GM quietly changed the design of faulty ignition switches back in 2003 and 2004 when they discovered the problem they have denied.

Investors are ignoring the shooting wars in the Ukraine, in Iraq, and in the Gaza strip. Are they? Dow futures are down.

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A Note to the Granddaughters
"Point me out the happy man and I will point you out either extreme egotism, selfishness, evil, -- or else an absolute ignorance." Graham Greene is one of my favorite authors; a very interesting individual. The quote says more about Graham Greene than about "happy men." I'm happy, and I have a very, very strong ego (but wouldn't necessary call it "extreme." I wouldn't consider myself selfish but that's for others to decide; same with whether I'm "evil" or not.  I am very ignorant on many subjects, but I don't know if I would so far as to say I'm "absolutely" ignorant.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Rambling On A Sunday Morning, July 20, 2014

We're still out in southern California, along the coast. Our two granddaughters are with us for one more week. Today we will visit one of our favorite museums (in the world): the Getty Museum in west Los Angeles. We visit every summer.

Our granddaughter and son-in-law headed back to Portland, OR, yesterday after joining us for a week here. They were staying the night in Redding, CA, getting a good night's sleep before "attacking" the mountains later today.

Talking about their trip, that led us to talk about our favorite places to live in the world. Both my wife and I would go back to the Massachusetts coast if circumstances (money and grandchildren's location) were different. May would want to live on the north shore Boston; I would settle for Provincetown, at the tip of Cape Cod. My wife's second choice, after Massachusetts, was Trier, Germany. My second choice, after Cape Cod, was Yorkshire, England, specifically York. My wife had a number of additional choices, but after I thought about Yorkshire, England, I was unable to come up with any other locations. It's funny how emotions take over.

The granddaughters had trouble deciding between Texas (Dallas-Ft Worth area) and southern California. I found that surprising. As much as the older granddaughter loves to swim in the ocean, I thought it would be a no-brainer.

Which brings us to the new Dickinson poll: 56% of respondents felt that their city was worse than it was five years earlier. A big complaint was a lack of big-box stores.

But the wonderful thing about America: one can move anywhere one wants to in the United States and still find a McDonald's or a Starbucks. To some extent, one can move almost anywhere in the world if one wants. It would be interesting to have a follow-on poll. If you could leave Dickinson, where would you like to move to?

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Yesterday we drove down to Huntington Beach. It was unseasonably cool (the Los Angeles television talking heads used the word "mild") but the beach was packed. The line of cars waiting to get in was about a mile long and had stopped. There was no more room to park on the beach. Apparently, they would let one car in if one car left. Our young granddaughter noted that at $15 per car, the state was taking in a lot of money yesterday. At this one section of beach, I believe there are 25 parking lots; each parking lot holds about 120 cars, I suppose. It's free to walk in. One could easily park "downtown" and walk in but most folks don't: they have too much to carry in.

We elected to go to a marine nature reserve instead and go to the beach during the weekday: at least two more times this next week. The granddaughters love boogie-boarding. The younger granddaughter and I spent some time with an older gentleman who appeared homeless but was probably a millionaire. Says he comes out to Huntington Beach to visit his son and go fishing. Has a lakeside home and dock on Arrowhead Lake, and a home in Palm Springs.  He says he has the best of all worlds: the lake, the desert, the ocean. He was fishing in the estuary that led into the marine reserve. We learned a lot from  him. I learned a bit more about casting. I learned a bit more about bait. A California state license for fishing costs $65, he said -- it's "calendar-based." Fishing licenses all expire December 31st, regardless of when you buy the fishing license. He was disabled, so his fishing license was free.

Checking the website, it turns out that non-resident sport fishing licenses are a bit more expensive than what he said: about $150. But, and this is a huge BUT: children 16 and under fish for free. What's not to like about that? One-day and two-day licenses are also available for a lot less than the $150 annual fee.

The granddaughters spent much of the evening "making" origami. They have really gotten quite good at origami. If I remember, I will post a picture of their hedgehog collection all wearing samurai hats.

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Global Warming

It's been unseasonably cool along the southern California coast this past week. Local television weatherwomen use the term "mild" to describe the cool weather.  It can be miserably hot in Texas, but I really do enjoy not having to check the weather in the Dallas-Ft Worth area before deciding what to wear when going outside -- except for the occasional rain showers.

It was really too cold to go to Huntington Beach yesterday but the beach was packed, as I noted above. The water was probably very, very warm and very, very enjoyable for boogie-boarding.

I see another "cold" record was set/tied in Washington, DC, this past week. IceAgeNow is reporting:
Washington Dulles Airport ties record low temperature at what is supposed to be the hottest time of year.
The mercury briefly settled at 55 degrees at Dulles Airport early this morning, matching the record low temperature for the date set 38 years ago, in 1976.
Fifty-five degrees. Wow. In July. Wow. 

Hopefully, the reduction in carbon emissions in the US (due to fracking for natural gas) and the quietest solar cycle in ages will extend the life of the Maldives. Over at wiki:
"If carbon emissions were to stop today, the planet would not see a difference for 60 to 70 years," Nasheed said. "If carbon emissions continue at the rate they are climbing today, my country will be underwater in seven years."
That was in 2012. 
I did not know that a marker had been set. 2019.  

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Week 29: July 13, 2014 -- July 19, 2014

Top story of the month
Whiting to acquire KOG for $3.8 billion; no cash premium; all stock deal
More on the Whiting-KOG deal

Top story of the week
North Dakota sets new production record; second consecutive month greater than 1 million bopd
Director's Cut for May, 2014 data

Operations
The boom is here to stay -- at least through 2100; five generations of roughnecks
Bakken recoverable oil: 100 billion bbls places it at double Spraberry/Wolfcamp (Permian)
KOG reports several nice Koala wells
BR with another gusher in Corral Creek
Lease sales in Towner County
Bloomberg impressed with North Dakota production in May
Whiting reports high background gas at the Mork Farms Wells in Pleasant Hill oil field
A new field in the Bakken? The Aquarium (Newfield)
ONEOK to build 7th natural gas gathering and processing plant in Williston Basin

CBR
New CBR rules will stifle Bakken production

Bakken economy
Taxable sales and purchases: Williston still leads -- by a huge margin
First time ever: oil beats King Ag in North Dakota
Legacy Fund to receive largest infusion to date 
The male migration: comparing the Bakken boom with other booms
Update on Williston Crossing
Menards, Home Depot in Williston, an update
The Williston Wire: Tom Rolfstad retires; Home Depot to open in Williston
Taxable sales and purchases across the state; Williston still leads by a large margin
 
Miscellaneous
North Dakota: one of eight states not at risk for major earthquake (despite all that fracking)
The Permian: huge; new lease on life due to "Bakken" technology
Global investment in "green" energy fell a whopping 12% in 2013 as incentives blew away
EU at risk of losing 30 million jobs to US shale revolution

Personnel Costs, Railroads; Texas To Get Bragging Rights To Having First Existing Coal-Fired Power Plant Retrofitted To Capture Carbon (CO2)-- July, 2014

On July 17, 2014, I mentioned in passing the personnel costs associated with engineers/railroads. Today The Dickinson Press is reporting:
BNSF Railway has struck a tentative agreement with a union that would allow one-person train crews on certain routes if a monitoring system is in use.
The proposed agreement, which is at odds with the national union’s staunch support of two-person crews, also conflicts with a possible federal rule that would require two crew members aboard trains.
According to BNSF, the tentative agreement allowing a one-person crew would not apply to large trains carrying hazardous cargo, including crude oil and ethanol.
“BNSF has special handling procedures and operating rules for hazardous materials including loaded crude unit trains, which, among other things, require two people in the locomotive,” BNSF spokeswoman Amy McBeth said Friday. “That would not change under the agreement.”
The railroad’s agreement with the Transportation Division of the Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Union, SMART, would apply to about 60 percent of BNSF’s system.
Anyone wanna bet this will happen? For the record, I'm not taking bets.


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Texas: First Existing Coal-Fired Power Plant To Be Retrofitted 
With Coal Gas Capture Technology

Data points:
Where to get the CO2?
  • coal-powered W. A. Parish power plant eighty (80) miles away generates C02
  • retrofit the power plant to capture the CO2 and move it to West Ranch oil field by pipeline
  • joint venture: NRG Energy (Texas utility) and JX Nippon Oil and Gas (Japanese)
  • to be completed in 2016
Why is this news?  The project marks the first time an existing coal-fired power plant is being refitted with coal gas capture technology.


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Velocity of Money 
and
Government's Obfuscation With Gasoline Consumption Data

Some months ago I posted a number of observations while reading Sylvia Nasar's book on economics: Grand Pursuit. All things being equal, it is not the amount of money the government prints, but it is the velocity of money moving through the economy that correlates best to inflation. I was reminded of that again by the excellent "guest post" over at ZeroHedge: US gasoline consumption plummets nearly 75%. It's an article worth bookmarking and reading when one has time.

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No New "Red Lines"After Malaysian Airlines "Tragedy"
When "last chance" means "extend the deadline"

It was noted on Los Angeles radio yesterday that the president did not set any new "red lines" following the shoot-down of the Malaysian airliner. However, earlier in the week, this Reuters headline: Iran warned of "last chance" in talks after deadline missed.

So, what does "last chance" mean?  Extend the deadline:
The countries agreed to extend the high-stakes negotiations by four months.
I can't make this stuff up. No longer any more "red lines"; rather, "one last chance."