First Time Ever: Oil Beats Ag In North Dakota; The Boom Is Here To Stay: North Dakota Bakken Oil Production To Last At Least Five Generations -- ND Officials, July 18, 2014; The Bakken Pool -- 100 Billion Bbls Recoverable Oil?

Warning: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I have no formal training, education, or experience in the oil and gas industry. I often misinterpret what I read. On the blog I am serious about the Bakken and our granddaughters. Everything else is for entertainment purposes only, and most often cynical, sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek, over-the-top, and probably not worth reading. Comments are heavily moderated. I generally post only comments that pertain to the Bakken and add value. For every five comments I get, I generally post one. Have a great weekend everyone. Oh, this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here. 

Updates

July 20, 2014: one of several graphics posted some time ago. With the exception of the one small orange-infilled circle, all the rest of the estimates in the graphic below are of OOIP:

The largest circle is from the Leigh Price paper written back in 1999. The Harold Hamm / Continental Resources estimate, made in 2012 or 2013, suggested 903 billion bbls OOIP, more than twice Leigh Price's average of 413 bbls OOIP. Estimates of recovery conservatively run between 3 and 8 percent, though there are some reputable estimates of significantly more.  If I can, I will try to find the graphic comparing the Bakken with the rest of the tight-oil basins in North America.

The orange-infilled circle is the middle Bakken only (3.65 billion bbls recoverable, 2008 USGS estimate). With the upper Three Forks (TF1), the USGS upped their estimate to 7.4 billion bbls recoverable oil in 2010. Following that estimate, three more "sub-formations or benches" of the Three Forks were being targeted (TF2, TF3, and TF4). However, at the moment TF4 does not appear particularly promising.

Original Post 

Back on January 21, 2011, I wrote:

How many years do the analysts now say that it will take to fully exhaust the Bakken? It is now generally accepted by academic analysts that active drilling will continue until about 2030 and production will peak sometime after than and then decline until about 2100. How many years is it until 2100? 90 years.

That was a great post; one of my better posts. Mostly because I did not get off topic. Smile.

Whatever.

Today, two and a half years later, that prognostication has gone mainstream. Today's headline in The Dickinson Press: Bright Future: North Dakota officials project Bakken production through 2100 and leads with:

The boom is here to stay.

The North Dakota Industrial Commission projects that oil development in the Bakken will last at least five generations — with production lasting through 2100 and beyond.

Through 2100 and beyond. At least five generations. At least. [Memo to self: send e-mail note to Jane Nielson and a separate note to Snopes.]

It was also said that a 1% increase in production equates to another billion bbls. One percent of what = one billion bbls? Answer: 100 billion bbls. I believe we were once told that recoverable oil was about 3 billion bbls; then 7 billion bbls. I think the wildest estimates a couple of years ago was 24 billion bbls. Somewhere I've seen 45 billion bbls. But unless I'm misinterpreting what I read, 1% of 100 billion bbls = 1 billion bbls.

I think estimates in the Permian are also way underestimated, but the Sprayberry/Wolfcamp in the Permian is said to be the biggest oil field in the US at 50 billion bbls recoverable.  At that link, the graph says the estimate of recoverable oil from the Bakken is a meager 12.5 billion bbls. From October 14, 2013:

If the Bakken is really 100 billion bbls or almost 10 times the 2013 estimate above, and the Sprayberry/Wolfcamp is similarly underestimated, that puts the Permian at about 500 billion bbls recoverable.

Got oil?

Peak oil, anyone?

**********************************

From The Williston Wire

North Dakota oil and gas industry surpasses agricultural industry in economic metrics. For the first time in North Dakota's history, agriculture is not the largest engine in the state's economy. That's what a statistical study by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis found after examining economic trends in the state from 2011 through 2013. It's a startling development in that it's historic. But anyone who has been paying attention to the oil and gas boom in the western counties knew the day was coming when mining (oil, natural gas and coal) would knock off King Ag.

Two months in a row, ND oil production exceeds one million bopd; expects further surge before the summer is over.

Ground breaking for Watford City's new high school slated for July 21, 2014.