Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Largest Act Of Civil Disobedience In History Of US?
Updates
April 1, 2014: this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over time we will see more and more stories with this as a theme. It may get worse in 2015 when folks realize they were fools to sign up for expensive ObamaCare policies with/without subsidies and high deductibles just to avoid the $95 penalty which the IRS probably won't go after anyway. CBS SF Bay Area is reporting:
Despite an extended deadline to sign up for health care under Covered California, some in the Bay Area are choosing to pay a penalty instead of insurance because of the cost.ObamaCare is the law of the land. Like any law, it has penalties. Anyone "accepting the penalty" instead of signing up is demonstrating "civil disobedience" at some level. This is no different than breaking any other law. Over time, if the "law" is not enforced, more and more folks will simply see ObamaCare as an option, but not a "law."
Original Post
I opined some time ago that, in terms of numbers, the greatest (largest? biggest?) act of civil disobedience with regard to a federal law in the United States will be "mass" rejection of the ObamaCare individual mandate. [Speeding / breaking the law on the federal interstate system doesn't qualify because states set the speed limit. I think.] [Draft dodging in the 1960's got more ink but it only affected a small proportion of the male population. Drinking 16-oz drinks was only outlawed in NYC.][The revolutionary war occurred before we were a nation.][The US civil war: maybe that would be the exception.]
I don't know about you, but it seems folks think ObamaCare is "optional."
It's not.
ObamaCare is the law of the land. And yet if one just relied on the mainstream media, one would get the impression that ObamaCare is optional.
Now we're starting to get the poll numbers suggesting what I've been saying for a long time: not signing up for ObamaCare will be the biggest act of social disobedience in the history of the United States.
First, this poll: young adults are rejecting ObamaCare. Then, wasn't there an "opt-out" story, the other day?
Google. college activists opt-out ObamaCare
Ah, here it is.
Yahoo!News is reporting: "Anti-Obamacare group entices students with models and a boozy party."
And then, this, another poll: 40% (that is, 4 out of 10) Americans would rather pay a fine (which they think is $95) than enroll in ObamaCare.
Right, wrong, or indifferent: college activists enjoy the experience of actually doing something. Think "community organizer."
Right now there really isn't anything like the draft or the Selective Service in the '60s to demonstrate against. No draft card burning, for example. Students don't really have much to demonstrate against these days. Certainly they aren't going to demonstrate FOR Obamacare: not only would it not be cool to demonstrate FOR ObamaCare, but it would not be calling for an act of disobedience, which is generally what college activists are known for.
I don't think the "opt-out" movement will gain much VISIBLE traction, but the tea leaves certainly suggest there will be mass rejection of actually signing up for ObamaCare. It's a heck of a lot easier to PASSIVELY NOT sign up (and possibly face a $95 fine) than it is to ACTIVELY SIGN up.
I could be wrong. I don't have a dog in that fight, but this act of social disobedience is an interesting phenomenon to watch.
When only 44 people have signed up for ObamaCare in Oregon, it certainly suggests we are seeing a large-scale act of civil disobedience, the likes of which we have never seen in this country. The media voted Oregon to be the state most likely to overwhelmingly accept ObamaCare. The state spent $300 million, apparently, to sell ObamaCare and 44 folks signed up. Assuming many of these would have been married couples, we might be talking 30 family "units" actually signed up. I'm not good at math: is that $10 million per family unit?
In another life, in another time, both Mr Mandel and Mr Obama would have been part of this civil disobedience.
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Nelson Mandela is a leader Barack Obama should try to emulate.
He could start by spending 27 years in prison.
The point is not that I agree or disagree or if I am even making a partisan / political comment. The interesting point is that a libertarian like Don Imus, who might have been among the elite who supported Obama at one time, [may have] said this.-- Don Imus
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The government says they are easily on track to meet the enrollment numbers they need. Read the linked article (NBC) and place your bets. [The government spokesman, focusing on "x" million is focusing on the wrong metric; see below.]
Don sent me the link. This was my response:
Yes, they need 7 million. The "real" drop dead date is March 31, 2013, but if one wants coverage to begin January 1, 2014, your date of December 23 is correct.Remember: until the government bails the insurance companies out, which the federal government will do (the genie can't be put back into the bottle), the insurance companies are on the hook for unlimited liability.
They are counting on procrastinators and as we get closer to March 31, 2013, the rate of enrollees will increase. That's their argument.
I'm with you. If they don't need health insurance by December 23, they don't need it. And worse, things may start to backfire, and the rolling snowball could get bigger: folks who signed up (they have only put the policy "in their cart") have not actually bought the policy. A lot of folks who signed up and are sent their first premium due, may not pay it, just quietly drop out. [The "rolling snowball" referred to the "opt-out" movement."]
However one writes about it, the fact is the insurers have to be very, very nervous. They needed several million enrollees by the end of December to start paying premiums to have the cash flow to pay claims. They can see the writing on the wall. The software is not yet written. They may see no cash flowing from these new policies by the end of January, and when the cash starts to flow, it could be from enrollees numbering far less than the 7 million they claimed they needed.
But this is even worse: the government spokesman is focused on the wrong metric. They needed a "good mix" in the 7 million, preferably MORE young adults and non-pregnant young male adults to subsidize the older, sicker patients, with pre-existing conditions. Pregnant women, seniors, and folks with AIDS and cancer (the most likely to have signed up) will disproportionately make up the "x" million that actually enroll, pay the first premium, and then keep paying the premiums. And submit the claims.
MRO To Increase Rig Activity In The Bakken By 20%
My last MRO rig count in the North Dakota Bakken was 8, over a year ago. I have no idea what it is now. Maybe MRO will be up to 10 rigs in the North Dakota Bakken going forward. The actual number doesn't mean a lot to me; the fact that MRO is increasing rig activity by 20% is the interesting data point.
It's another tea leaf in my "tea" this morning. This puts into perspective The Motley Fool's take on the oil and gas industry. It must have been a slow day for that fool when he wrote that column.
It's another tea leaf in my "tea" this morning. This puts into perspective The Motley Fool's take on the oil and gas industry. It must have been a slow day for that fool when he wrote that column.
Wednesday: For Investors Only; Huge Investment News For MasterCard
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
A pretty slow day, so far. Only three companies announced increased dividends/distributions.
MRO Analyst Day:
Wow, MasterCard announces a 10-for-1 stock split, announces a $3.5 billion buyback, and almost doubles its dividend. MasterCard is up almost $30 (4%) in pre-market trading.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anyting you read here or think you may have read here.
The AP is reporting a 5-year high in job openings. Add this data point to the previous list of data points suggesting the economy is turning the corner, to coin a phrase.
A pretty slow day, so far. Only three companies announced increased dividends/distributions.
MRO Analyst Day:
Marathon Oil increases remaining share repurchase authorization to $2.5 bln; set to accelerate U.S. resource play activity and market North Sea assets: Co, at its Analyst Day in New York today, is providing investors with a comprehensive report on the co's global operations, including a review of strategic plans to achieve profitable growth and competitive returns for shareholders. The co's plans include:
- Accelerating Eagle Ford and Bakken rig activity 20% each; 100% rig activity increase planned for Oklahoma Woodford
- 28-rig program underpinned by 2.4 bln barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of 2P unconventional resource, doubled since 2011, and over 4,500 net well locations
- Greater than 60% of 2014 $5.9 bln capital, investment and exploration budget allocated to resource plays
- Projects 2014 resource play production growth rate greater than 30% relative to 2013; forecasts overall production growth rate of ~ 4%, excluding Alaska, Angola and Libya
- For the period 2012-2017, projects resource play production compound annual growth rate (CAGR) greater than 25%; forecasts total production CAGR of 5-7% for the same period
The Wall Street Journal
Wow, MasterCard announces a 10-for-1 stock split, announces a $3.5 billion buyback, and almost doubles its dividend. MasterCard is up almost $30 (4%) in pre-market trading.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anyting you read here or think you may have read here.
Other
The AP is reporting a 5-year high in job openings. Add this data point to the previous list of data points suggesting the economy is turning the corner, to coin a phrase.
Wednesday: Sort Of Back To Normal In Texas; Blogging On Hold For About An Hour
Active rigs: 193
US shale industry: breaks even in two years (2016) and then starts showing a profit. -- BHP.
RBN Energy: MLP 101. The case study: Valero.
It looks like things are falling into place for another road trip. Which reminds me: discontinue home delivery of The Wall Street Journal. .... okay, that's done. A great omen: a Chipotle 18-wheeler is parked across the parking lot from Starbucks. In the old days, I would have been hitchhiking. Those days are past.
The car I will be driving was serviced yesterday. I am really impressed how efficient dealer services are these days. It is also impressive how "hi-tech" the new cars are. I asked when this particular car needs to come back in for routine maintenance. The rep said there was no "scheduled" time frame or mileage, per se. He says the "info" light will come on when service is due -- sensors sense the quality of the oil, sensors sense other stuff, some kind of mileage algorithm kicks in, and voilà.
Ah, yes, the "engine light." Miss Penny, on "Big Bang Theory" has solved the problem of the "engine light": she covers it with a bit of paper. I started watching the "first season" again last night.
I will get back to blogging later ... maybe about an hour from now. The bike ride into Starbucks was very nice today; no traffic, no wind, and no ice. Weatherspark said it was 27 degrees; the mean for Dallas-Ft Worth is 42 degrees, so global warming has disappointed the warmists (and me). But I'm going to enjoy my coffee and listen to some music. No work for awhile.
US shale industry: breaks even in two years (2016) and then starts showing a profit. -- BHP.
RBN Energy: MLP 101. The case study: Valero.
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To The Granddaughters
It looks like things are falling into place for another road trip. Which reminds me: discontinue home delivery of The Wall Street Journal. .... okay, that's done. A great omen: a Chipotle 18-wheeler is parked across the parking lot from Starbucks. In the old days, I would have been hitchhiking. Those days are past.
The car I will be driving was serviced yesterday. I am really impressed how efficient dealer services are these days. It is also impressive how "hi-tech" the new cars are. I asked when this particular car needs to come back in for routine maintenance. The rep said there was no "scheduled" time frame or mileage, per se. He says the "info" light will come on when service is due -- sensors sense the quality of the oil, sensors sense other stuff, some kind of mileage algorithm kicks in, and voilà.
Ah, yes, the "engine light." Miss Penny, on "Big Bang Theory" has solved the problem of the "engine light": she covers it with a bit of paper. I started watching the "first season" again last night.
I will get back to blogging later ... maybe about an hour from now. The bike ride into Starbucks was very nice today; no traffic, no wind, and no ice. Weatherspark said it was 27 degrees; the mean for Dallas-Ft Worth is 42 degrees, so global warming has disappointed the warmists (and me). But I'm going to enjoy my coffee and listen to some music. No work for awhile.
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