Random Data Point From The Rolfstad Presentation

Source: Brigham Exploration (now Statoil)

Undated slide; probably 12 - 18 months old.

Frack stages/length: EUR: $ drilling/finding cost

• Single long: 127K: $34/boe
• 7 stages short: 236K: $21/boe
• 12 stages short: 411K: $13/boe
• 20 - 32 stages long: 500- to 700K: $15 - $11/boe

8" Of Snow In Black Hills; On-Site Observers Say Could Reach 24"

Don sent me the data point.

Let's see if there are any "official" updates, though observers on the ground are about as good as one can get.

Accuweather is predicting 12 - 18 inches in the higher elevations around Rapid City through Friday night (that would be tonight). Pretty early in the season, especially when global warming haunts us.

New Rolfstad Presentation -- Has Been Removed By Source (I Believe)

http://www.willistonnd.com/usrimages/BakkenDougherty19September13.pdf

It appears the presentation has been removed. See comments below.

 

Predicted -- 800,000 Furloughed Workers Snarling Unemployment Offices; Jobs Numbers Next Week, Following Week Should Be Interesting

From The Wall Street Journal: furloughed workers snarl states' benefit systems.

Applying for jobless benefits is typically a straightforward affair. But it is shaping up to be a mess for 800,000 furloughed government workers and confounding state officials who run the benefit programs.

Applications from federal workers have been flooding state unemployment offices since the shutdown began Tuesday. It will likely be weeks before workers see benefit payments, which would be a small share of what they typically earn.

The flurry is throwing a spotlight onto a complex, little-used program funded by the federal government but administered by states, each of which has its own eligibility rules and compensation levels. The program is operated much in the same fashion as state unemployment insurance programs, except that the benefits are covered by various federal agencies.

Maryland, like other states, suddenly found itself scrambling this week to ramp up staffing to handle federal employees who are blocked by law from returning to work. About 10,600 furloughed federal workers had applied for jobless benefits as of noon Thursday—more than three times as many federal workers as typically apply in an entire year.

"We're overwhelmed," said David McGlone, the Maryland labor department's acting assistant secretary for unemployment insurance. "We're putting in a lot of overtime. We're doing the best we can."

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I might come back to this later, but I have never seen a presidency in my lifetime do so much to screw up this country in such a short time. I assume he will be golfing this weekend.

Friday Morning: Don't Worry, Be Happy; PSX Increases Dividend; Congress Has Moved On -- Without The President

Active rigs: 185 (steady)

RBN Energy: an interesting look at "pigs" -- the thing that runs down pipelines checking the integrity of the pipeline.

The pig, or “Pipeline Integrity Gauge,” is a sophisticated device that is critical to the safety and integrity of pipelines.  The oil and gas pipeline transportation industry can’t live without them.  They help ensure the safe and efficient passage of crude oil, NGLs, petroleum products and natural gas through more than 2.3 million miles of pipeline in the U.S. Over 3,000 pipeline operators in the U.S. manage the national pipeline transport system. Their success is due in large part to pigs.  Today we investigate the role of pigs in oil and gas pipeline transportation infrastructure.

Six companies announced increased dividends, including: Murphy Oil, Phillips 66, Plains All American Pipeline, and Sabine Royalty. Sweet. Murphy Oil and Phillips were pretty good increases.

I started following the weekly jobs numbers very closely about two years ago; I forget exactly when. But over time I noted that they were highly manipulated and always revised -- downward (increased unemployment than originally stated). At least that was my impression. It is interesting to see that I am not the only one who has noted this. See comments at this link.

The Wall Street Journal

These were the stories on the front page of the on-line edition, in the order in which they were posted:

• Twitter's IPO
• Citi fined over leak of iPhone research
• Brokers from expelled firms still sell stocks

And then, finally: GOP begins search for broad deal on budget -- wow, government shutdown/gridlock dropped all the way down to "oh, by the way."

This is interesting. Regarding the shutdown and the debt ceiling, it looks like the GOP are actually the adults here trying to put together a grand plan: Senior Republicans in Congress, frustrated over their inability to strike a deal to reopen the government, began shifting from their drive to undercut the 2010 health-care law toward a broader budget deal.

I sent a note to Don earlier this morning suggesting that I always thought this would be a one-two punch in sequence: government shutdown to be followed by the debt ceiling "crisis." But then it occurred to me, that the issues don't have to be handled in sequence. One could move to the debt ceiling now and pretty much just ignore the "government shutdown." Just between you and me (and the others sitting here with me in Starbucks in Texas), nothing seems to have changed despite the government being shutdown. Of course, I haven't been to the nearest national park, wherever that might be.

If the House is now going to focus on a "grand plan," it means that they might simply be ignoring the "government shutdown." After all, the president closed the White House to the American public which was pretty much ignored by mainstream media. Closing the White House  has pretty much defined this president for me.

Anyway, on to more news.

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Insurers see enrollment on health exchanges:

Insurers said they are now getting enrollees through the health law's new online marketplaces, though some state websites and the federally run exchange continued to be slow amid heavy traffic. Folks who understand how insurance works predict that the on-line health insurers will be bankrupt within three years. [My comment; not those of The WSJ.]

Furloughed workers snarl states' benefit systems. 

Applying for jobless benefits is typically a straightforward affair. But it is shaping up to be a mess for 800,000 furloughed government workers and confounding state officials who run the benefit programs. 

Ex-rebel, with militia, lays claim to Libyan oil patch.

Samsung reports record profit.

Tesla stock falls on video of fiery crash.

Too big to fail? Ackman's Pershing Square takes $2 billion hit on misplaced bets on JCPenney and Herbalife. Wasn't it a $7 billion hit for a much, much bigger company, JPMorgan? I honestly don't remember, but it seems like it was something like that. 

It seems there is more and more talk about a possible default and how to manage the risks. Roosevelt's "the only fear we have is fear itself" is fitting. The more "we" talk about default, the less scary it sounds.

And regular readers knew this video would follow:

Don't Worry, Be Happy, Bobby McFerrin