Jobless Claims: The Less-Volatile Four-Week Moving Average Approaching the Magic Number

Link here to Bloomberg.

Remember, the magic number is 400,000. 

This story is particularly interesting for two reasons: a) the four-week moving average has reached 400,000 for all practical purposes, especially if the numbers are revised upward next week, as expect; and, b) blame for the worsening numbers were placed on everything and everyone except on George Bush.

Here is what the jobless claims are blamed on this week:

• Sandy
• global economic slowdown
• fiscal cliff

Quote of the day: Sandy is a “temporary setback for the job market,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, who correctly forecast the figure. Beyond the storm, “the job market is still very weak and it’s going to remain that way until we get some fiscal clarity.”

Let's parse that a bit: "temporary" -- every week there is a "temporary" reason for the setback. See data points going back to January 21, 2011, almost two years ago. And then this: "The job market is still very weak...." Well, duh. "And it's going to remain that way until we get some fiscal clarity."  Oh, why do I even bother? Smile.  

The four-week average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 396,250 from 386,750.

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that every week there is some unexpected event that causes the first-time jobless claims to jump? It's an interesting phenomenon.

Permitting Activity in Montana: Targeting the Bakken

Link here to Fairfield Sun Times.

• Sheridan County: 2
• Roosevelt County: 3
• Richland County: 5

All horizontals targeting the Bakken. 

Well, That Didn't Last Long --- Twinkies Mediation -- Less Than A Day

Updates

November 22, 2012: will liquidate.  At $35,000/year, some employees said they would rather relax at home and collect unemployment benefits; not sure if they are still eligible for health care insurance provided by the company; ObamaCare coming

Original Post

After the bankruptcy judge said the unions and the company had not tried hard enough, the company agreed to mediation, but said, with the company losing $1 million/day, the mediation would not last longer than 24 hours.

And it didn't. 

The same bankruptcy judge presided over mediation efforts.

It would have been fun to be a fly on the wall.

Judge: "So, where do we stand?"

Company: "We're losing $1 million/day on payroll for employees who are on strike."

Union: "I don't think the company is trying hard enough."

Judge: "Break for lunch? The 'court' will reconvene at 2:00 p.m."

Later:

Judge: "So, where do we stand?"

Company: "We're still losing $1 million/day on payroll for employees who are on strike."

Union: "I don't think the company is trying hard enough."

Judge: "It appears mediation efforts have failed. Any last words?"

Company: "No."

Union: "No."

The company will now ask (again) to liquidate. Plenty of buyers out there. Will take about a year to close down / sell operations, some say. 

Reader Provides Background on the Decker Coal Mine Story; Comments on BSNF and the Bakken

Late last night I received the following as a comment in response to the Decker coal mine story. It is a great comment, providing a lot of background, including a tie-in with the Bakken. Because some folks may not read comments I have re-posted the comment here.

A significant portion of the coal produced at the Decker mine has historically gone by train to the Midwest Energy Resources Company (MERC) site in Superior, WI, unloaded there, and then placed onto vessels for ultimate delivery to coal plants located along the Great Lakes. The amount of coal being brought in to Superior has really declined the last couple years, not necessarily because of actions in the US (though there's no denying the future of coal in the US does not look bright), but because of what's happened in Canada.

Coal has essentially been abandoned as an energy source in Canada in general, and the province of Ontario in particular. Several large coal-fired power plants in Ontario that were receiving regular shipments of coal out of Superior have shifted to natural gas or renewables, causing MERC to lose a big chunk of business.

To combat this loss, as well as losses that loom due to United States policy, MERC has been pushing to establish export deals, especially with European markets. There's been some success to date, with a deal to send coal out of Superior to the Netherlands and Spain, but so far not enough is being exported to make up for the business that has been lost. The ramifications are being felt all along the railroad tracks and, now, all the way to the mine in southeast Montana. The Duluth News-Tribune has covered this with some articles over the past year, but the links to those have long died. Still, I'm sure you could find some more information by running adequate terms through Google.

By the way, there's something Bakken-related I can work into this comment. Because of the decrease in demand for coal at places like the port in Superior and elsewhere in the Midwest and along the East Coast, BNSF recently announced that some trains that normally would have passed through Minot and Williston on their way between Chicago and the Pacific Northwest will be shifted to BNSF's historically coal-laden corridor that runs southwest from Chicago and passes through Iowa, Nebraska, and northern Wyoming. The main reasons cited were in order to make room for more oil trains set to come out of the Bakken region, as well as the railroad's continuing difficulty to attract crews to eastern Montana and North Dakota, which I think most honest observers would attribute at least partially to union regulations (I can explain that in greater detail, if desired).

FWIW, Trains Magazine was the one to report on the traffic shifts and a link to what was said is at (http://trn.trains.com/Railroad%20News/News%20Wire/2012/11/Bakken%20oil%20increase%20shifts%20other%20traffic%20around%20BNSF.aspx). It's behind a paywall, though, but what I typed was the crux of the article.

With regard to the issue of BNSF having trouble attracting crews to eastern Montana and North Dakota, yes, my hunch is that readers would be interested. Certainly I am.

Thank you for taking the time to provide the background to a very complex story.

**********************

A Note for the Granddaughters

On a completely different note: during the early 70's, specifically the 1973 oil embargo, I honestly thought "we" might run out of gasoline and/or energy in general. I was quite concerned. I was going to school in Los Angeles at the time. I started taking the bus: that tells you how concerned I was, using the LA bus system. My roommate was never worried; he continued to drive to school every day. I did not ride with him; I truly thought "it" was all over -- our economy. Talk about naive.

One of the "nice" things to have come out of the domestic coal story is the realization that "we" will "never" run out of fuel. That coal we are not using will be around for centuries.

Not only will coal be around for centuries, it will provide a ceiling in the price Americans pay for energy: if other energy gets too expensive, we will return to coal.  I feel very, very badly for all the laid-off coal workers who may not find new work that pays as well, but the current situation tells me that the US energy future looks very, very good.

Wednesday Morning LInks -- Not Much On The Bakken -- Stories In General

RBN Energy: natural gas wellhead freeze-offs

I did not read this article, scanned it. The subject is too depressing for me to read: funding rules test schools.  This story takes up the entire Page 3 of the A section of today's WSJ (except for a gutter ad): we've talked about the significance of Page 3 before.  The by-line is Karnes City, Texas, just south of San Antonio, Eagle Ford, Texas, but I did see North Dakota and Montana mentioned. The article -- or, rather the issue -- is depressing because it is a man-made problem that should be solved.

ObamaCare: states get a say in health law. Again, I did not read the article, scanned it. For archival purposes only.