The Los Angeles Dodgers Win The 2020 World Series -- Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 27, 2020

To say the least, I'm impressed. MLB got 'er done. Good, bad, or indifferent, one needs to celebrate another American symbol. And I love all the guys not wearing masks, and especially the guys wearing their masks below their chins, and I love the virtue signaling by the media. LOL. 

Intellectual froglegs: not yet posted, but waiting for new episode of "Intellectual Froglegs" tonight. 

McKinsey: re-imagining the auto industry's future. Link here. I was a bit curious why the subtle emphasis on Germany .... until I saw where the authors of the report are based. Spoiler alert: Vienna, Stuttgart, and Munich.

Jerry and Stephen Jones: a look back. 

Covid-19: 1.2 million deaths -- ZeroHedge. 

France: 79% of French believe Islamism has "declared war" on their country. ZeroHedge.  

• Update, October 29, 2020: France placed on maximum security alert after second decapitation attack in two weeks -- ZeroHedge link.
  

Turkey: Russian airstrikes obliterate rebel camp in Idlib, killing over 60. ZeroHedge. From 2018:

• Idlib: back to the future; Obama drew a "reddish" line; Trump will draw a "red" line; John Kerry faults Obama on his "reddish" line -- the Syrians saw Obama's "reddish" as "yellow" -- proceed with caution, but proceed; Inshallah; Idlib on the blog in 2015; also, here;
• for more on Idlib on the blog: link here;
• from today's story: On Monday Russian jets pounded a camp full of Turkish-backed militants in Idlib, killing at least 60. Some media sources are reporting possibly over 70 killed and 100+ injured, making it one of the single deadliest airstrikes of the entire almost decade long war.
• I've long lost the bubble on whose side "we're" on;
  

Why did RBG not retire during the Obama presidency? I've yet to see an essay by any publication that "explains" why RBG did not retire during the Obama presidency. 

It's fairly easy to "break it down" by working the question backwards. It comes down to this, one of two possibilities: a) she simply wanted to make her tenure live up to the proposition that an appointment to the Supreme Court is a lifetime appointment, and no further explanation is needed; or, b) she found herself caught between a Scylla and a Charybdis, a situation out of her control. Once she found herself in that situation, she had no choice but to "simply" let nature take its course. The question then becomes: what was "her Scylla" and what was "her Charybdis"? 

For purposes of argument, let's assume it's not (a) or simply "hubris" as a reader suggests (see first comment). Let's assume it's (b): she was caught between Scylla and Charybdis and had no choice to let nature take its course. Then it gets easier. To answer that question -- who was her Scylla and who was her Charybdis -- that's easy: it is the person who would appoint her "replacement." Now it gets interesting. But as the catch-phrase to the X-Files said, "the truth [answer] is out there."

ISIS Moving Toward Baghdad; Iranian "Armada" Moving Toward Yemen -- April 17, 2015

Updates

April 18, 2015: the post below bothered me overnight. In "fairness," I really think the drop in the stock market yesterday was simply an opportunity to take profits, and once the market began to drop, the computers took over. Most likely it was the Greek and the Chinese economy story that drove the market in the first place, but the Mideast is certainly heating up.

This morning I see that ISIS claims bombing in "Iraqi haven" of Erbil. This city lies a short distance southeast of Mosul, just north of Kirkuk. According to Wiki:

The Kirkuk oil field has ever since [its discovery in 1927] remained the most important part of northern Iraqi oil production with over 10 billion barrels (1.6 billion cubic metres) of proven remaining oil reserves in 1998. After about seven decades of operation, Kirkuk still produces up to 1 million barrels per day (160,000 cubic metres per day), almost half of all Iraqi oil exports.

So, that's to the north where Iraqi forces re-took the city of Mosul after a heavy investment of resources, men, materiel, and cooperation of the allies.

Much closer to Baghdad is the news coming out of Ramadi, see below.

Another story in today's WSJ is an example of how far the terrorists have come in re-drawing maps in the mideast. It turns out that terrorist groups are now in control of another provincial capital in Syria:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad blamed Turkey in remarks published Friday for the fall last month of Syria’s northwestern city of Idlib to Islamic fighters, saying Ankara provided “huge support”—logistic and military—that played the key role in the defeat of his forces. 

Idlib’s fall was a major blow to Assad’s government. The city was captured by opposition fighters led by al-Qaida’s branch in Syria, the Nusra Front, and the ultra-conservative Ahrar al-Sham group. 

It was the second provincial capital to fall to militants during Syria’s civil war. The city of Raqqa fell in 2013 and is now in the hands of Islamic State militants.

So now we have al-Qaida (a resurgence it seems), al-Sham (new boys on the block), and ISIS.

And, of course, no update on Yemen and the Iranian "armada" that is headed there to support the rebels.

Original Post

Now that the news cycle is over for the week, it appears that the news embargo has been lifted, at least temporarily. Earlier there was a story that Greece is beginning to sell its assets to meet debt payments now due April 24th.

Now this story. The Washington Post is reporting that thousands of Iraqis are fleeing towards Baghdad as ISIS makes inroads --

Thousands of families fleeing Iraq’s western city of Ramadi choked checkpoints leading to Baghdad on Friday, after an Islamic State advance spread panic and left security forces clinging to control. 

A column of traffic several vehicles wide snaked for miles at a checkpoint in Sadr al-Yusufiyah, on the edge of Baghdad province, as minibuses, cars and trucks picked up families who crossed by foot carrying their possessions in bags and wheelbarrows. 

Suhaib al-Rawi, the governor of Anbar province, of which Ramadi is the capital, described it as a human disaster on a scale the city has never witnessed. 

U.S. and Iraqi officials have warned that the city is at risk of falling to the Islamic State despite seven months of airstrikes by U.S. planes in Anbar. Such a loss would be a serious blow to Iraq’s government, which recently announced a military campaign for the province after retaking the militant stronghold of Tikrit, and to the international effort to push back the militant group, whose gains in Ramadi have demonstrated an ability to create chaos even while under pressure.

Seven months of airstrikes. Something tells me the colonels at Air War College are hearing from their US Army colleagues about "boots on ground."

Time to look at the map again.

So, this is pretty much where we stand at the moment in the Mideast --

• Iraq is no longer functioning as a "state" -- US assessment
• ISIS is moving towards Baghdad
• Iran is sending an "armada" of 7 to 9 ships to assist the rebels in Yemen
• Obama promised a few days ago to expedite weapons/ammunition requested by Saudi Arabia
• Obama's one-sided agreement with Iran provided the opening Putin needed to send missiles to Iran

The market fell almost 300 points today; the Dow is now at a loss for the year. Coincidence? I think not. Pundits said it was due to Greece and the economy in China, both of which have been known for some time. Something tells me the movers and shakers on Wall Street were getting word of ISIS moving towards Baghdad earlier today. Movers and shakers did not want to be caught holding securities over the weekend.

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Right Time of the Night, Jennifer Warnes

Welcome To The Bakken -- Post #26899 -- September 4, 2018

AMZN: trillion-dollar market today. Then dropped back a bit. So two US companies hit the milestone -- Apple and Amazon. Whoo-hoo.

Link here. On a down day for the market -- early trading -- Ford holds on -- flat, maybe slightly green. MarketWatch story here.

WTI: up almost 2% today. A dime over $71. 

So, I don't forget:

• Mad as hell: EU beef imports from Argentina increased by 10 percent and accounted for 17 percent of total imports, followed by Uruguay with 7 percent market share and Botswana with 2.65 percent. Imports from the United States increased by 180 percent, but still only represent 0.5 percent of total EU beef imports; the Marshall Plan; NATO support; US bases in Germany; and, in return, 0.5% of total EU beef imports; and the only person in the US who cares? Trump. Free trade? I don't think so. Link here. At the link, search for "0.5."
• Still mad as hell: those Canadian tariffs on US dairy products
• Idlib: back to the future; Obama drew a "reddish" line; Trump will draw a "red" line; John Kerry faults Obama on his "reddish" line -- the Syrians saw Obama's "reddish" as "yellow" -- proceed with caution, but proceed; Inshallah; Idlib on the blog in 2015; also, here;
• Trust but verify: XTO in the Grinnell; no wells in 30/31 -- what gives? See this post.
• SPR release: Saudi Arabia buying -- speaks volumes, doesn't it? 
• Ford: September sales to be released about 9:15 a.m. EDT today

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the long weekend and today:

Tuesday, September 4, 2018 

• 33923, SI/NC, MRO, Maleckar USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 33122, 955,  CLR, Mountain Gap 9-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, some production; t6/18; cum 16K 7/18;

Monday, September 3, 2018

• 34597, SI/NC, MRO, Sheldon USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
• 32529, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4A-9-8H, Charlson, no production data, 
• 30522, 804, CLR, Burr Federal 15-26H1, Sanish, 4 sections, t6/18; cum 21K 7/18;
• 29710, IA, CLR, Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, four sections, some production, the Thorvald wells are tracked here;

Sunday, September 2, 2018

• 32965, 692, Oasis, Ceynar 5198 12-5 4B, Banks, huge well; 125K in less than four months; t3/18; cum 172K 7/18; the Oasis Ceynar wells are tracked here.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	37599	89537
6-2018	28265	51263
5-2018	43039	90745
4-2018	37581	76222
3-2018	25525	56677

Saturday, September 1, 2018
None.

Active rigs:

$71.16↑↑	9/4/2018	09/04/2017	09/04/2016	09/04/2015	09/04/2014
Active Rigs	63	56	33	75	196

RBN Energy: to put this next story in perspective, see this post from yesterday. MPLX's strategy to pipe more northeast field condensate and heavier NGLs.

The Utica and “wet” Marcellus plays in eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are producing increasing volumes of natural gas liquids and field condensates that need to be moved to market. In response, MPLX, a master limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) six years ago, has been implementing a multi-part strategy to develop new or expanded pipeline takeaway capacity through the Midwest to deal specifically with the heaviest NGLs — natural gasoline and other pentanes — and with field condensates. That work is now largely done, the results have been positive, and MPLX is now undertaking the next phase of its strategy that will further expand the system’s capacity and add a new element: the ability to transport batches of two other, lighter NGLs — normal butane and isobutane — on a few of the same pipelines. Today, we discuss the next steps the company is taking to facilitate the transport of liquid hydrocarbons out of the Utica and Marcellus.

Two years ago we discussed the fact that while most of the market talk about the Utica and wet Marcellus focuses on either natural gas or lighter NGLs like ethane, propane, and butanes (normal and iso-), the side-by-side regions produce sizable volumes of natural gasoline (an NGL also known as plant condensate) and superlight crude (also known as field condensate or lease condensate), both of which are important products that have the potential for value uplift. Plant condensate/natural gasoline, separated out at gas plants and fractionators, is used as a gasoline blending agent, a feedstock for steam crackers and as a diluent — that is, blended into heavy bitumen crudes in Western Canada to reduce viscosity and enable them to flow more easily through pipelines. Field condensate, which is produced at the lease, can be blended into crude oil, run as a feedstock at refineries and condensate splitters or used as diluent, among other things. Also, recall that condensate splitters are simple refineries that process condensate into its component fractions — mostly NGLs, naphtha and distillate or jet kerosene. We noted that most condensate and natural gasoline was being transported within and out of Marcellus/Utica production areas via truck, rail or barge.

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The Book Page

River: One Man's Journey Down the Colorado, Source to Sea, Colin Fletcher, 1997.

Whitewater rafting levels of difficulty at this link.

• international system: I - VI (level 1 - 6)
• Grand Canyon only: 1 - 10 rapids scale

The Grand Canyon continues to use an older river rating scale that was developed before the International scale was introduced. A class V ( highly technical & difficult, etc.) on the international scale is equivalent to a 10 on the Grand Canyon scale.

From the book, in Marble Canyon:

• Soap Creek Rapid: 6,5,5,5
• House Rock Rapid: 9,8,7,7
• North Canyon Rapid, at Mile 20, the brink of the Roaring Twenties: 5
• 21 Mile Rapid: 5
• 24 1/2 Mile Rapid: 6,6,5,5, +)
• 25 Mile: 7,6,5,5
• Nankoweap, Mile 52, Mile 1000 of the author's journey: the end of Marble Canyon

Entering the Grand Canyon

• in the first twenty miles, only three rapids; the highest rating, 6
• first day, Unkar: 7,7,6,6
• next day, seventeen miles; eleven riffles and eleven rapids; four of hte rapids rated "8" or higher
• Hance: 10,9,9,8,+; vertical drop 30 feet
• then into the Inner Gorge; Precambrian rocks plunged steep into the river
• Sockdolager: 8,8.9,8; 19 foot drop
• Grapevine: 8; 18 foot drop
• through the Inner Gorge; three more rapids; then Bright Angel Creek
• Phantom Ranch
• Horn Creek Rapid: 9,10, 8,8; 10 foot drop); not recommended between 4000 and 10,000 cfs)
• Hermit Rapid
• Crystal, the first of the Canyon's two monsters; more than a hundred miles below Glen Canyon Dam;: 10,+
• 104 Mile Rapid: 7,6,6,5
• Specter: 8,7,6,5
• Deubendorff: 9,8,8,7,+
• they are on their sixth day below Crystal
• Havasu Creek
• Havasu Rapid
• Lava Falls Rapid, the quintessential "10" rapid with a 34-foot vertical drop; awestruck
• four more days of rapids, but no challenges
• Diamond Creek Wash
• the last few rapids; none rated above "6"
• Gneiss Canyon Rpaid
• Separation Canyon (p. 300)
• Grand Wash Cliffs, forty miles away, three days travel; easy

Out of the Grand Canyon

News From All Over -- March 31, 2015

Well, that was it. It's a wrap. The US-Iran-French-Chinese-et-al talks have come to an end. A "general statement" will be released later and the group will re-assemble in June, 2015.

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Today's EIA Blurb

And here it is:

For the first time, EIA is providing monthly data on rail movements of crude oil, which have significantly increased over the past five years. The new data on crude-by-rail (CBR) movements are integrated with EIA's existing monthly petroleum supply statistics, which already include movements by pipeline, tanker, and barge. The new monthly time series of crude oil rail movements includes shipments to and from Canada and dramatically reduces the absolute level of unaccounted for volumes in EIA's monthly balances for each region…

Total CBR movements in the United States and between the United States and Canada were more than 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2014, up from 55,000 bbl/d in 2010. The regional distribution of these movements has also changed over this period. --- EIA 

Well, that was helpful. 

In other news, the sun came up in the east today.

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The fourth section of The Wall Street Journal today is "Business & Environment." Lots of EPA stuff, green energy stuff, lots of short interviews with movers and shakers. After going through the four or five pages of interviews very, very quickly, I was left with these notes:

• green energy folks talk a lot in generalities; not a lot of facts or figures
• everyone in the know agrees that renewable energy accounts for 1% of all US energy
• think tank representative on renewable energy: "[for solar] there are a range of subsidies, and they are very, very substantial. My back-of-the-envelope calculations of my own system is about two-thirds of the cost is subsidized."
• as in oil, there are sweet spots when it comes to solar -- the US is not in the sweet spot; Chile is
• the elite, the rich can personally afford solar panels on their roofs, mostly as tax credits
• Lisa Jackson over at Apple is still unintelligible
• when Apple talks about their green energy successes, they are talking apples and oranges (US and overseas) -- their US carbon footprint represents 2% -- two percent -- of their total global carbon footprint (they manufacture almost everything overseas; they have non-carbon-producing retail stores in the US)

I did not read the "Utilities Adapt to a New Era," but I did note the graph that depicts global energy growth over the next 25 years:

Take-aways:

• nuclear power will grow the most: 90% -- probably in China
• natural gas will grow almost as much: 88% -- advantage -- the US
• not only is coal still the most important, but coal energy will grow a whopping 51%
• solar and wind will more than double -- and will approach a third of natural gas energy
• the amount of energy that will be needed in 2015 is astounding

In another interview (which I can't find on-line but is in the print edition), Robert Murray discusses coal. He notes that "China burned four billion tons last year, a new 500-megawatt power plant, every year. Australia killed their carbon tax. They're going back in coal world-wide."

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For The Archives

New York Times -- as US and Iran make deals, Saudi makes its own moves.

As America talks to Iran, Saudi Arabia is lashing out against it.

The kingdom, Iran’s chief regional rival, is leading airstrikes against an Iranian-backed faction in Yemen; backing a blitz in Idlib, Syria, by jihadists fighting the Iranian-backed Assad regime; and warning Washington not to allow the Iranian-backed militia to capture too much of Iraq during the fight to roll back the Islamic State, according to Arab diplomats familiar with the talks.

Through Egypt, a major beneficiary of Saudi aid, the kingdom is backing plans for a combined Arab military force to combat Iranian influence around the region. With another major aid recipient, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is also expected to step up its efforts to develop a nuclear bomb, potentially setting off an arms race in the region.

Foreign Policy -- How France became an Iran hawk.

France’s policy is dictated by a set of principles with regard to nonproliferation that have guided administrations on both sides of the political spectrum in the talks with Tehran since 2002. And the tension with Washington is just one expression of a larger disagreement between the two countries over U.S. strategy in the Middle East.

Differences between Washington and Paris have been quietly brewing for months. The French feel that they are being kept out of the loop in critical discussions. The multilateral framework of Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany) has turned into a bilateral discussion between Iran and the United States.

At the end of his administration, the president will have thrown everyone under the bus except, a) Valeri Jarrett; b) Iran; and, c) environmental fanatics.