Friday, January 3, 2025

The Life And Times Of Net Zero Banking -- We Hardly Knew Ye -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44608NETZERO.

This net-zero banking story sure turned out to be a bigger story than I ever thought it would be.

Talk about capitalism at work. 

Once one US bank stepped back from net-zero banking, the dominoes began to fall immediately.

This was posted earlier:

Net-zero banking? Dead. Link here. Along with ESG and DEI.

 And now today, link here.

The whole house of cards, to mix metaphors, is now going to fall, in quick succession.

This reminds me a lot of "the wall" coming down in 1989 -- the Berlin Wall.

Some, by the way, are equating the "return" of Donald Trump as significant as "the fall of the Berllin Wall." We'll get back to that later. See this post.

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Word of the Day

Obrigado.

Link here.

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The Book Page

Portable Magic: A History of Books and their Readers, Emma Smith, c. 2022. 

Another great book, bought sight unseen and not a bit unsatisfied. A top shelf book in this genre.

My notes will be posted here. 

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The Fine Arts Page

Is this not sublime? Link here.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here. This one absolutely makes my day! 

Stage direction in Shakespeare's All's Well That Ends Well.

"Tucket" is the English version of the Italian word toccata, from toccare, meaning to touch. In Renaissance Italy a "toccata" was also the royal or noble declaration. [It might be used to alert the audience something important was about to happen -- perhaps the riders were being called to mount, or perhaps royalty was about to enter stage right.]  Its attention-getting style- so tuneful and attractive -- was soon to be adopted in teh early seventeenth century, in compositions of music, such as those of Corelli [Arcangelo Corelli, 1653 - 1713, some four decades after Shakespeare was writing] and Bach [J.S. Bach, 1685 - 1750 -- some seventy-five years after Shakespeare was writing.]

The toccata originated in northern Italy (think Tuscany, Florence) in the late Renaissance period (15th and 16th centuries). Shakespeare was writing in the late 16th century, early 17th century).


Folks are probably more familiar with this version. 

So, if toccatas were originally written for organ, brilliant that Shakespeare turned to trumpets for his plays. Wow.  

According to Richard Paul Roe, p. 199, "a tucket is a run of tuneful notes, generally on a trumpet."

Again, using a precise word.

Top Stories Of The Week -- Week 52: December 29, 2024 -- December 31, 2024

Locator: 44607TOPSTORIES.

Geoff Simon's quick connects. 

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Hiatus Between November 5, 2024 - January 20, 2025: Twelve Weeks
Biden-Trump Transition
December 29 - January 5, 2024: Week Nine

The transition works this way, this cycle:

  • Biden's emphasis is on pardons and commutations, making Trump's life as difficult as possible; 
    • setting up Trump for failure; Biden will fade away
    • expresses regret that he dropped out of race; says he could have won (he's 82 years old) 
      • as delusional as he is senile
  • Trump's focus is to look presidential well before inauguration
    • putting his administration (and "Shadow Government") in place;
    • nominations: the big ones have all been named
    • executive orders being drafted
    • US billionaires lining up to meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
    • global leaders flying to Mar-a-Lago; Canadians have made their second trip to Mar-a-Lago

The Florida White House:

  • Trump is the president, simply waiting to make it official, January 20th (unchanged from last month)
  • surrounding himself with "self-made billionaires"
  • those billionaires not named to his administration are making pilgrimages to Mar-a-Lago
  • most recent rumor: Bill Gates on his way (I don't think he has gone there yet)
  • entry fee to be part of Trump's inaugural inner circle: $1 million -- Tim Cook most recent to ante that $1-million entry fee.

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

  • two terrorist attacks on US soil within hours of each other to close out Biden's presidency

Top international non-energy story:

  • undersea communications cable mangled off Taiwan

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • Prime Video has licensed a Melania Trump documentary 
    • to be directed by Brett Ratner
  • Biden's surgeon general says no amount of alcohol is safe, not even wine at communion
    • much less, one small sip of red wine each day
    • does anyone really believe that?
    • yes, both Trump and Biden
  • folks were surprised that it would be cold this winter
  • auto sales for December, 2024, and full year results, released
    • the spin is amazing

Top national energy story:

  • WTI surges; closed just below $74 at the end of the week

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • huge Three Forks "find" in the Bakken
  • back to talking about a trillion-bbl reservoir

Trump 2.0 -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44606TRUMP.

Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

Link here. 

Ivan Krastev.

From The Atlantic today. Talk about a misreading of American politics.

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Duck Hunting In North Texas

Our granddaughter and her friend, duck hunting, north Texas.

No dog, so they have to retrieve the ducks themselves.


2024 US "Car" Sales Data Is Out -- Some Surprises -- The Biggest Surprise? Mazda -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44605AUTOS.

Updates

January 5, 2025: the top 16 popular pick-up trucks in the USA as reported by Wall Street 24/7 one year ago, thus looking at 2023 figures. Link here. Again, sales figures for 2023:

  • vehicle sales (in US in 2023): 15.5 million
  • pickups against that figure: 2.75 million
  • cars: 3.2 million
  • SUVs: make up most of the rest
  • the pickups
    • 16: Nissan Titan: 19,000 sold; starts at $46,000
    • 15: Rivian R1T: 19,410 sold; starts at $69,900
    • 14: GMC Canyon: 22,458 sold; starts at $36,000
    • 13: Ford Ranger: 32,334 sold; starts at $32,670; y/y sales dropped; worrisome for Ford
    • 12: Hyundai Santa Cruz: 36,675 sold; starts at $26,000; 5,000 max capacity -- not good;
    • 11: Honda Ridgeline: 52,001 sold; starts at $40,000 (2024); 5,000 max towing capacity, also
    • 10: Jeep Gladiator: 55,187 models; questionable design; 4,500 max towing capacity; starts at $39,790 (2024)
    • 9: Nissan Frontier: 58,134 models sold; $30,030 starting price; towing capacity, 6,690 pounds
    • 8: Chevrolet Colorado: Chevy's second most popular pickup; 71,082 modesl sold; $29,500 starting price! Towing capacity of 7,700 pounds -- getting more and more curious about the Ford F-150.
    • 7: Ford Maverick: 94,058 models sold; $23,815 starting price; 1,500 pounds towing capacity; say what?
    • 6: Toyota Tundra: 125,185 models sold; $39,965 starting price; a whopping 11,175 pounds towing capacity.
    • 5: Toyota Tacoma: slightly smaller; 234,768 models sold; $39,400 starting price; towing capacity, 6,500 pounds
    • 4: GMC Sierra: arguably the most luxurious pickup in this list; 295,738 models sold; starting price, $38,300; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds
    • 3: RAM pickup: 444,927 models sold; towing capacity starts at 12,750 pounds; $39,420 starting price;
    • 2: Chevrolet Silverado: 555,148; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds; $36,800 starting price;
    • 1: Ford F-Series: 750,789; 13,500 pounds towing capacity; $36,570 starting price; 

The 2024 stats, reported January 4, 2025: 765,649 F-Series pickups sold in 2024, up 2%.

Link here for 2024 sales:

  • mid-size trucks:
  • Chevrolet Colorado: just fell short of 100,000; up 38%
  • GMC Canyon: 38,215 units sold; up 70%
  • Nissan Frontier: 68,155 units; up 17%
  • Ford Ranger: 46,205; up 43%
  • Ford Maverick: 131,143; up 39%
  • Toyota Tacoma: led the segment, at 192,813, down 18%
  • Jeep's Gladiator: also struggled; 42,000; down 24%

For bigger pickup trucks, link here:

  • Ford F-Series: 765,649, but only because of huge discounts in the 4th quarter to pull this off; full year, a paltry 4.1% increase;
  • Chevy Silverado + GMC Sierra: 874,679 models sold;
  • Chevy Silverado: 549,649
  • GMC Sierra; 324,734; for full year, an
  • Ram Trucks: 373,120; down 7.1%

Original Post

$100,000 cars and light truck sales are increasing, and the meme? The US economy is not doing well.

Link here.

The WSJ article is the best I've seen so far today.

The whole story bores me so I won't be posting much on the blog regarding auto sales but ...

... having said that, this is perhaps my favorite graphic:

Unfortunately we're not told the average downpayment paid, but my hunch: the minimum. Also, we're not told the average length of the loan, and then the actual amount of money folks spend on a new car over time. 

The question is: how do folks pay for these $75,000 vehicles?

This is how.

When I was growing up, my dad, the single wage earner in our family for most of our childhood years, had to pay for college for six children.

Today, the American average number of children: 1.66.

And unlike the 50's and 60's it's not uncommon to have two wage-earners.

Today, college is costing tens of thousands of dollars every semester. And that's for state colleges. A "real" college is costing upwards of $100,000 / year for four years, and maybe even five years. And then graduate school.

Bottom line: a new car is much less expensive than paying for college.

Also not mentioned in the article: cost of insurance. Even if rates had not increased (and they have), insurance premiums are a lot less for a $25,000 sedan than a $100,000 Cybertruck.

And, of course, it goes without saying, that the story about EVs is being mis-reported. Really mis-reported. Outright obfuscation in most cases. 

I'll be tracking this story elsewhere; I'm not going to clutter the Bakken with this nonsense.

One New Permit; Five Permits Renewed; Four Permits Canceled -- January 3, 2025

 Locator: 44604B. 

WTI: $73.96. Just four pennies from $74.

Active rigs: 34.

One new permit, #41478:

  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • EOG has a permit for a Wayzetta well, NWNW 9-153-90, to be sited 1955 FSL and 749 FWL;

Five permits renewed:

  • Oasis, five Domalakes permits, Cottonwood oil field, Burke County.

Four permits canceled:

  • Petro-Hunt (2), two permits in Divide County;
  • Enerplus (2); two permits in Dunn County, a Chimayo permit and a Diablo permit

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Permit of Interest 

  • With regard to the new permit #41478 (see above), one of a few producing, active wells, in that drilling unit, #25093:

25093, 745, EOG, Wayzetta 150-1509H, Parshall, t8/13; cum 870K 11/24; recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024309165105027869736713
BAKKEN10-2024236176384007413704613
BAKKEN9-202425000400
BAKKEN8-2024110029021
BAKKEN7-2024211692071921986161685
BAKKEN6-2024301327140242286338038103
BAKKEN5-2024301467133339692908693105
BAKKEN4-20242910759725589685911997

Early production, an incredible well back in the early days of the Bakken:

BAKKEN6-2015301063210573106415490138341177
BAKKEN5-20153112038120311311159751537196
BAKKEN4-2015301056210700114112389104991398
BAKKEN3-2015311194411850117213360116961158
BAKKEN2-2015281232412358109713248114391350
BAKKEN1-201531151601505168716947148281614
BAKKEN12-2014311750217452126718173164501215
BAKKEN11-2014302024720223144320298185401269
BAKKEN10-201431263262693422472227221513251
BAKKEN9-201418122881214312041083151485429
BAKKEN8-2014312538525090169520098120797864
BAKKEN7-2014312745627307215818837170471639
BAKKEN6-2014292991830048228221279196051538
BAKKEN5-2014273388533893237521911196282157
BAKKEN4-2014284303043838256123791236580
BAKKEN3-201430436904244141332149121170178
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-2014222984931174323414810180212915
BAKKEN12-201321291822894844021099219888913
BAKKEN11-20131622792217938127104809836571
BAKKEN10-201319311693193040151488614535265
BAKKEN9-2013275232651529743424825147399955
BAKKEN8-2013142208021848650319845019783