No New Permits; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 8, 2022

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $71.46

Natural gas: $5.962

No new permits.

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37859, 1,340, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 5-35H,
• 37860, 1,056, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 10-35H2,
• 38783, 401, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,
• 38784, 1,020, CLR, Bonnevillle 9-23H,
• 38478, 1,613, WPX, Hall 14-15HZ,
• 38479, 643, WPX, Hall 14-15HD,
• 38477, 1,211, WPX, Hall 14-15HIL,
• 38480, 1,714, WPX, Hall 14-15HY,
• 35662, 404, Lime Rock Resources V-A, Jore Fed 13H, North Fork,
  

Huge Energy Stories Today -- December 8, 2022

I read the first headline below and almost fell off the treadmill. 

Biden to double the amount of natural gas the US will export to Europe.

• link here;
• Europe will need to import huge volumes of LNG in 2023 (that's next year) -- Trafigura, as reported by Charles Kennedy
• if Charles Kennedy's story is being published today, the Biden administration had to have known about this for weeks;
• Germany's off-shore floating LNG import teerminals delayed in construction -- just announced today --

Trafigura profits:

• link here;
• commodities trader Trafigura earned a record $7 billion in its last financial year;
• more than the previous four years combined;

Mexico crude oil production continues to fall;

• link here;
• Mexico: production estimated at 1.62 million bopd in November, 2022
• Mexico's quota per OPEC+ is 1.753 million bopd until December, 2023
• at the link, a great graphic regarding Russia output vs OPEC output the last two years;

Keystone pipeline shut down:

• links everywhere
• near the Kansas-Nebraska border, in Kansas
• company not releasing how much was spilled

Exxon to expand stock buybacks.

• link here;
• expand buyback plan to $50 billion;
• sees cash flow doubling by 2027;

Gasoline prices plummet to below-year-ago levels.

• link here;

Transport prices fall at the fastest rate on record.

• link here.
• this whole inflation thing is looking more transitory than some would care to admit;

Russian oil:

• being held up in transit; D5S much more effective that originally thought;
• Urals grade oil, which accounted for about 60% of the Russia’s seaborne exports over the past year, traded at $43.73 a barrel on Wednesday, two days after D5S sanctions went into effect; link here;
• remember: only Russian seaborne oil is affected by the D5S sanctions; COBP is not at risk due to sanctions;

OPEC cuts:

• Gulf producers lead on OPEC+ cuts,
• Saudi crude output at 6-month low:
• OPEC production falls by 850,000 b/d,
• Saudi pumps 10.46 million b/d
• Non-OPEC boosts output by 150,000 b/d led by Kazakhstan, Russia;
• link here;

Investors:

• link here;
• UBS’s billionaire clients are betting on big gains from energy
• they’re also seeing opportunities in
• pharma,
• biotech, and
• software,
• with Asia Pacific excluding mainland China ranking as the top region.
• my "new money allocation":
• blue chip: 40%
• beat down tech: 25%
• energy (mostly US oil): 20%
• mRNA (mostly Big Pharma): 10%
• Daimler Truck: 5%

US Economy; AVGO Increases Its Dividend -- December 8, 2022

What's behind the greatest job market in history? Forbes, December 7, 2022, The article begins:

The deeper we dig, the more we find, especially when we examine the momentum of our job market which, I’ve repeatedly reported, is the best in history.

From my vantage point – independent career coach, job market observer, and columnist for 25+ years – each month’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to amaze. After 23 consecutive months, we’re used to seeing high job creation numbers and low unemployment.

The string is not over. Expect more.

Jobless claims, today: link here.

• slight uptick in claims -- up 4,000 to 230,000 (yawn)
• continuing claims at a 10-month high; up 62,000 to 1.671 million (yawn)

The market:

AVGO: up $12.58; up almost 2.5%; trading at $531; increases it's quarterly dividend by 12% to $4.60; it was $4.10;

• over five days: down from $540
• over six months: down from $541
• one year: well off its highs, $578
• pays 3.09%

AAPL:

• up 1.5%; up $2.09;
• trading at a very, very low of $143; 52-week range: $129 - $183

CLR Has Fracked The Fuller Wells In Little Knife -- December 8, 2022

It appears the CLR Fuller wells have been fracked. The CLR Fuller wells are tracked here.

This one came off the confidential list Wednesday, October 19, 2022.

• 38365, conf, CLR, Fuller 5-2H, Little Knife, t--; cum 4K over 6 days; extrapolates to 22K over 30 days; 

The parent well is off line:

• 20357, IA/629, CLR, Fuller 1-2H, Little Knife, t9/11; cum 289K 7/22; off line while neighboring wells are being fracked;

The Enerplus 10-Well "Game Fish" Pad Is Starting To Report -- December 8, 2022

The "Game Fish" pad is tracked here.

Newer (daughter) wells are starting to be fracked.

Recent production data for an old well in this field:

• 21754, 654, Enerplus, Grouper 149-94-36D-25H, Squaw Creek, t7/12; cum 351K 10/22;

It's almost like a brand new well.

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	5956	5994	2949	5969	4197	802
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	5434	5348	3364	5463	3527	1025
BAKKEN	8-2022	25	3038	3033	3021	3193	1594	966
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	22	1173	1198	349	1526	1011	52
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1705	1689	528	2320	1491	77
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1691	1774	511	2685	1441	551
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1606	1598	508	2646	1417	564
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1638	1550	517	2657	1374	605
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1557	1700	510	2490	1420	397
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1566	1495	490	2508	1386	454