ISO NE -- What's Going On? -- September 29, 2021

10:44 p.m. EDT -- posts / screen shots. The actual data lags about one hour.

Electricity rates just spiked on the east coast.

Link to ISO NE.

In the past hour or so, real-time rates have moved from $70/MWh to over $105 / MWh.

For newbies:

• $20 / MWh: when demand is low; renewable energy supplying max available
• $30 / MWh: pretty normal expectation
• $70 / MWh: very high rates
• $100 / MWh: expect to see this with high a/c demand; high heating demand
• $200 / MWh: rarely seen

Fuel mix chart:

• for some reason percent of demand met by natural gas has dropped way off and expensive Canadian hydroelectricity is surging:

• natural gas: 53%
• nuclear: 29%
• 11% hydro
• renewables: 6%

Holy mackerel: a refresh shows real-time costs have spiked to over $200/MWh. 10:51 p.m. EDT. This is autumn; not hot summer weather and not cold winter weather, and yet coming on midnight, electric rates are surging.

Folks think charging EVs overnight will not be that big a deal.

Graphics:

 

 

Note: the screenshots were taken at the time indicated but the actual / real-time data was one hour earlier, at 9:50 p.m. EDT. 

The original graph below had to be redrawn to more than double the "y" axis to capture the $200+ spike in MWh price.

Later: rates quickly dropped to $100 / MWh after the above screenshot. A reader follows this much more closely than I do and probably has a good explanation. The thing I'm trying to point out is the overnight charging of EVs is going to be a bigger deal than most folks realize. EV penetration in New England is negligible.

MRO Taking Nice Wells Off Line In Antelope-Sanish -- September 29, 2021

MRO has taken several wells on the MRO Chauncey-Winona pad off line. These wells are tracked here. 

Interestingly, several MRO wells on another pad south of these wells have also come off line. For example:

• 18471, 380, MRO, Hunts Along USA 12-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/11; cum 255K 7/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2021	11	644	615	371	1215	1125	30
SANISH	6-2021	30	1740	1700	1320	2642	270	2194
SANISH	5-2021	31	1732	1719	1421	2812	2414	180
SANISH	4-2021	30	1683	1722	1964	2596	1851	562
SANISH	3-2021	31	1130	1070	1743	1186	882	19

There's a lot of activity in this area -- existing, producing wells -- but I don't see any "new" activity on the GIS map. Unfortunately, NDIC is not updating scout tickets or the map in a timely matter, so hard to find additional information.

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Halloween, 2021

Grandson planning to go out as a "Trump Supporter" on Halloween.

Covid-19: For The Archives -- September 29, 2021

 

MRO: Damn The Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Five More Permits In The Prolific Bailey -- September 29, 2021

NFL

• ratings: link here.
• huge ratings: the best start for the league since 2016, which analysts attribute in part to the easing of the pandemic and other factors.
• Brady: he really, really made the right decision to come back "one more" season
  
• Brady's statistics: insane; link here;
• Brady to return to "his" arena; this Sunday; can't-miss TV; link here;

Enbridge: to start new Line 3 over the weekend. Link to Charles Kennedy.

Gasoline demand, link here. In the US, continues to fall.

Market: I'm not watching CNBC very much this week; not watching the market in the big scheme of things. Having said that, some ticker symbols today;

• ENB: up a penny; $39.82; had been as high as $40.16 today; pays 6.7%;
• DVN: up 1.76%; up 62 cents; closed at $35.75; as high as $36.04 intra-day; pays 1.23%;
• EPD: up 0.46%; up 10 cents; closed at its high, $21.88; pays 8.23%;
• MNRL: in the red; closed down 8 cents; closed at $19.52; pays 2.87%;

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$74.83	9/29/2021	09/29/2020	09/29/2019	09/29/2018	09/29/2017
Active Rigs	25	11	57	67	58

Six new permits, #38589 - #38594, inclusive:

• Operators: MRO (5); Summit Carbon Solutions, LLC
• Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Wildcat (Mercer County)
• Comments:
• first time I've seen Summit Carbon Solutions; Milton Flemmer 1, NWNE 35-141-88;
• MRO with permits for five more wells in the prolific Bailey oil field; NENE 18-146-93; 563 FNL and between 336 FEL and 496 FEL; Amos, Cheryl, Stone, Killion, Weekes,
• existing wells in that drilling unit:
• 16923, 279, MRO, Appledoorn 14-19H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 360K 7/21;
  
• 19408, 813, MRO, Trinka 41-18H, Bailey, t3/11; cum 194K 7/21;
• 24219, 1,327, MRO, Appledoorn 34-19H, Bailey, t6/13; cum 252K 7/21;

Seven permits renewed:

• EOG (3): three Austin permits in Mountrail County
• QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
• BR (2): two permits in Dunn County; a Manchester permit and a Concord permit;

One permit canceled:

• EOG: #34118, Burke 94-1821H, Mountrail County
  

Name changes of interest:

• CLR changes the name of three "LCU Ralph Federal" wells to LCU Ralph wells, dropping the "Federal."

The Dead Cow Keeps Growing -- September 29, 2021

Locator: 10010VACAMUERTA.

Vaca Muerta is tracked here.

Updates

February 25, 2024: XOM looking at selling its assets in Vaca Muerta.

Original Post 

Link to Rystad Energy.

I never saw this coming.

Dead Cow.

Vaca Muerta. 

The Vaca Muerta is tracked here.

The world's fastest growing shale play keeps breaking records. 

So, let's run the numbers.

• Permian: 5 million bopd.

• Bakken: 1 million bopd
• 24 rigs.

• Vaca Muerta:
• prior to December, 2020, never exceeded 120,000 bopd
• oil rigs: 50
• July, 2021: 160,000 bopd for the first time ever
• August, 2021: 161,000 bopd
• forecast: 200,000 by year end, 2021
• Argentina's total production:
• forecast to hit 560,00 bopd by December, 2021
• a benchmark not seen since October, 2012;

So, the Bakken:

• four times as much oil with half the number of rigs.

More at the link.