The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions -- March 4, 2021

Really long term:

coal or wind turbines

Long, long term:

Cancun or Mars

Long term:

CVX, COP, XOM (oil-focused) vs Total, BP, Shell (renewables)

Mid-term:

EVs vs ICE;

Short term:

Texas: lifts all Covid-19 restrictions:
California: recommends double-masking;

Make your bets and spin the wheel.

Huge Jump In Production -- BR Kermit -- March 4, 2021

The well:

33977, A/IA/494, BR, Kermit 5-8-32 UTFH, Pershing, t9/18; cum 248K 12/20;off line as of 2/19; remains off-line 6/19; back on line 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 8/20; a well to watch; off line 1/21; see this post, full production data; recent production, apparently last fracked, 10/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	246	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	22979	23010	11513	53743	53299	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	29665	29826	13280	61175	61175	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	41166	40881	17489	72916	71942	412
BAKKEN	9-2020	9	11785	11632	6995	22319	21762	269
BAKKEN	8-2020	1	0	0	0	32	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	0	0	0	16	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	204	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	26	23004	22800	9350	32807	15384	16046

Ovintiv With Four New Permits -- WTI Rises -- Active Rigs Up One -- March 4, 2021

EVs: just for the fun of it, google: evs crash and burn.

Texas, Mississippi, and now Connecticut, apparently ... lifting capacity restrictions. When you look at all the sports events now and all the folks in attendance and all the folks not wearing masks at these events ...

OPEC+: for the archives --

voted to extend current production one more month
want to see global oil stockpiles shrink to the levels seen in 2015 - 2019;
Wood Mackenzie sees Brent oil prices hitting $70 - $75 / bbl in April, pushing WTI to $65 - $70 range (at $63 today, we're almost there)
Saudi oil minister talked a good game, saying shale has seen its day; has run its course;
EOG says it can fund dividend and CAPEX with free cash flow even if WTI oil dips below $40 (I believe EOG CEO Bill Thomas on this one);
on the other hand, it's an existential issue for Saudi if oil trends toward $50, much less $40;

TSLA: down 5% today, Closed at $621.

COSTCO: huge day for earnings;

revenue of $44.77 billion vs estimates of $43.81 billion
EPS of $2.14 vs estimates of $2.45 -- that might disappoint but look at on-line sales
on-line sales surged over 75%;
expensive stock; high P/E; lousy dividend -- Later: I'm wrong. See first comment below. There's so much I miss by going too quickly; not seeing the whole picture. I love Costco. I'll have to take another look. Huge thanks to reader for taking time to write. From another reader: "I don't own, shop or really follow Costco.... but your comment on the dividend might be a bit off... Costco does seem to pay out special dividends which as I recall can be generous.... below is a copy/paste from Value Line from Costco analysis; Special div’d of $7.00 paid in 12/12; $5.00 in 2/15; $7.00 paid in 5/17; $10.00 paid in 12/20."

wow, when I make a mistake, it's a doozy. I need to stick to my knitting -- LOL.
on the other hand, do the math -- calculate the dividend return incorporating those special dividends --

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.98	3/4/2021	03/04/2020	03/04/2019	03/04/2018	03/04/2017
Active Rigs	16	50	68	59	45

To the fifteen active rigs this morning, Hess adds another active rig:

BL-Frisinger in Williams County;

Four new permits, #38190 - #38193, inclusive:

Operator: Ovintiv
Field: Westberg (McKenzie)
Comments

Ovintiv has permits for two Rolfsrud wells and two Olson wells in NWNW 29-152-96;

38190, Olson, 545 FNL 350 FWL
38191, Rolfsrud, 525 FNL 350 FWL
38192, Olson, 505 FNL 350 FWL
38193, Rolfsrud 485 FNL 350 FNL

Two permits renewed:

MRO: a Saxvik permit and a Hausauer permit, both in Dunn County.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

35746, A/SI, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 4TFH XW, Patent Gate, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 105K 12/20; off line 1/21;
35747, A/SI, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 3H, Poe, first production, 1/20; t--; cum 198K 1/21;
35748, A/SI, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 142K 1/21;
35879, A/SI, Zavanna, Usher 28-20 5HXW, Patent Gate, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 186K 1/21;
36004, loc/A, BR, Rink 4-1-5MBH, Pershing, first production, t--; cum --;
37510, drl/A, Hess, EN-Vachal LLLP-154-94-2029H-3, Alkalie Creek, first production, t--; cum --;