The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Friday, October 21, 2016

Wow, I Wish Aubrey Was Still With Us -- October 21, 2016

From Bloomberg/Rigzone: Chesapeake Energy declares "Propageddon" with record frack. Data points:

first it was the single stage frack; then the multi-stage frack; then, the mega-frack; now it's the monster frack
the era of the monster frack has arrived in North America -- Chesapeake singing its praises
25,000 tons of sand down one Louisiana natural gas well -- "propageddon"
Black 2 & 11-15-11 1H: 50.185 million lbs of sand in the Haynesville shale region of Louisiana; the well's lateral length = 9,764 feet (typical for a Bakken well)
the most used in the North Dakota Bakken has been 20 million tons by EOG, and that was a rare event
output increased 70% over traditional fracking techniques
"we're unleashing hell on every gas molecule downhole" -- VP of operations
average amount of sand used for each well in North American shale fields has doubled since 2014
in addition, the laterals have grown by 50%; and, the number of stages are also up by half
Southwestern Energy Co is testing frack jobs with as much as 5,000 lbs per lateral foot (a 10,000-ft Bakken lateral = 50 million lbs

I assume Mike Filloon will mention this in an upcoming Bakken update.

Just One Random Example Of Bakken 2.0 -- From The November, 2016, Hearing Docket Agenda

Case No. 25459:

Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order authorizing the following for the Dimmick Lake-Bakken Pool, McKenzie County, ND: (i) the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre spacing unit described as Sections 1 and 12, T.150N., R.97W.; and (ii) the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed twenty-four wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 30 and 31, T.151N., R.96W. and Sections 6 and 7, T.150N., R.96W., eliminating any tool error requirements and such other relief as is appropriate.

From the very beginning, the MillionDollarWay suggested that if "you" had one well, you would eventually have four wells, probably eight wells, and possibly, many more than that. In this case, some folks with mineral rights in the area described above might have 24 wells plus 8 existing wells = 32 wells (so far). That's a lot of mailbox money.

And remember, operators are not drilling wells if the EURs are not at least 500,000 bbls; some operators require more.

The eight wells in the two current 1280-acre drilling units are the Kennedy-Miles wells, which I track here.

The eight Kennedy-Miles wells as of this date which are updated elsewhere, not here:

Nothing About The Bakken -- October 21, 2016

This is why there was so little blogging today. Sophia and I went out to explore the local creeks. We had planned to feed the turtles, but it appears the turtles are already hibernating. We did not find any. That's why Sophia is munching on the white bread that we had brought for the turtles. Thank goodness for good ol' American white bread preservatives: this bread was at least three weeks old and it was as good as new -- at least in terms of no mold. LOL.

Sophia is in her new "Wellies" -- short for Wellingtons -- the classic "mudders" used in England and Scotland.

Sophia and I are clearly best friends. The bank down to the creek is incredibly steep. It is amazing how well she and I worked together to get down the embankment, carrying our picnic lunch, our change of clothing (assuming one of us would fall into the creek), the camera, etc. In fact, as we slid down the embankment, with Sophia in my arms, she grabbed our bag -- something I would have missed. (I think she was worried about losing the picnic lunch.) She is so incredibly observant; she's an extra set of eyes for me.

I will really miss these days years from now.

I"m watching an old "Bourne" movie. It is interesting that right now there is a scene in which Jason is running/jogging in an effort to forget the past. I remember doing the same thing some years ago in Florida. I would run miles trying to forget old memories. Some memories just won't die.

Some Memories Just Won't Die, Marty Robbins
In addition to singing, Marty Robbins loved to race automobiles. This Sunday, an elimination race in Talladega, Alabama -- the field will go from twelve drivers to eight, I will be watching.

**********************

The "Jason Bourne" Movies

These movies really bring back memories of my eight years with Air Intelligence Agency (AIA) and our interaction with NSA, CIA, FBI, etc. In hindsight, it is amazing how many folks gave up their entire lives / their personal lives for something much bigger. It is impossible to explain -- I never understood it -- why there are guys are like "Jason Bourne" but there really are. I spent very little time with "special forces" when I was overseas -- flying covertly into foreign bases under darkness, landing at foreign air bases, dropping off "special forces" personnel and then departing on the C-130 without the host nation even knowing we had landed on their runway and departed.

There is so much that needs blogging; I don't know, emotionally, if I can get to it tonight.

Speaking of which, I asked my wife if she had read Dante's Inferno in high school or college; she is better read than I am. I assume she had; I was wrong. She has not read Dante's Inferno.

I have finally gotten around to reading Dante's Inferno. I am blown away. It is quite incredible. Again, this is another piece of literature that should not be assigned to students in high school or college. It only "hits home" when one has come of age, has real-life experiences that can be related to such great works.

The November, 2016, NDIC Hearing Dockets Agenda Has Been Posted -- October 21, 2016

The November, 2016, NDIC hearing dockets agenda is posted:

Active rigs:

	10/21/2016	10/21/2015	10/21/2014	10/21/2013	10/21/2012
Active Rigs	34	68	191	182	186

Four new permits:

Operators: CLR (3), St Croix Operating
Fields: Elm Tree (McKenzie), North Haas (Bottineau)
Comments: Previous posts mentioning St Croix Operating:

update on their second permit, April 10, 2016
this (#31816) is St Croix's second permit in North Dakota; their first well (#29075, 28-158-82) was dry; the permit issued today is for 29-157-81, 7 miles to the southeast; these are south of the Glenburn oil field, about 12 miles northeast of Minot; August 12, 2015
St Croix has a wildcat in Renville; this is the first permit for this company in North Dakota, August 6, 2014
new operator in the Bakken, August 5, 2014

Operator Transfer:

EOG transferred two older Bakken wells in Mountrail County to Hunt Oil Company
Arsenal Energy transferred approximately 58 wells to Rampart Energy Company; most of them were older wells; most in Burke and Renville counties, though more recent ones in Williams and Mountrail counties.

No DUCs were reported as being completed.

Update On Moscow's Club Med -- October 21, 2016

Updates

Later 9:13 p.m. Central Time: see first comment. The US has ten (10) a/c carrier groups and only two are deployed overseas; neither are deployed in the Mediterranean. This is really quite incredible. It appears that President Obama has asked the US Navy to "stand down"; he does not want to confront the Russians and risk a miscalculation between Russia and the US.

Later, 12:05 p.m. Central Time: from Russia Beyond the Headlines -- Russia to establish a permanent naval base in Syria, posted October 11, 2016, that's like ten days ago --

The Russian naval facility in the city of Tartus will be upgraded into a permanent naval base. Military experts believe that the Russian Defense Ministry may set up a detachment of ships in the Mediterranean armed with Kalibr-NK cruise missiles and headed by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier.

“The first purpose of the future base that comes to mind is the deployment in the Mediterranean of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier with Su-33 and MiG-29K/KUB fighter jets as well as Ka-52K attack helicopters,” said Dmitry Litovkin, a military observer for the Izvestiya daily newspaper.

Without a base like this, deploying a full-fledged naval detachment in the Mediterranean could take weeks, he added.

“However, now ships with Kalibr-NK cruise missiles can be permanently based on the Syrian shores. And the deployment of a naval detachment at sea will take several hours rather than weeks,” said Litovkin.

Much, much more at the link.

As one regular reader noted, the "sledgehammer" that Putin is sending to the eastern Mediterranean is not going there simply to "take out" Aleppo. An incredibly prescient reader, I might add.

Not in my house!

Original Post

With the largest Russian naval operation since the Cold War headed towards the eastern Mediterranean, it was only appropriate to ask if Russia has an eastern Mediterranean port to accept their ships.

I've blogged about this story at various posts (including this one) but I provide updates and track it here.

Back to the original question: does Russia have an eastern Mediterranean port to accept their ships. Well, let's look. From The Moscow Times, almost exactly one year ago, why Russia is expanding its naval base in Syria:

The Russian military is expanding its tiny naval facility at Tartus on the Syrian coast to handle bigger warships and transport vessels amid a general buildup of Russian forces in territory controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday, citing military sources.

The news broke as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew with his military and intelligence chiefs to Moscow on Monday to meet with President Vladimir Putin and discuss ways to prevent accidental clashes of Russian and Israeli forces operating in Syria.

Russia in recent weeks has wrong-footed Israel, the U.S. and Europe by beefing up its supply of military hardware to the Syrian government. News reports have alleged that Russia has deployed forces such as Su-30 fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and troops to a government-controlled airfield in Latakia.

To better sustain and supply both its own forces and the Syrian government’s, Russia has deployed some 1,700 military specialists to its small naval repair station at Tartus, 90 kilometers to the south of Latakia — a dramatic increase in personnel at a facility that until recently was staffed by a handful of military men and civilian contractors, Kommersant reported.

“They are outfitting and guarding the facility, and are restructuring the dock,” an unidentified soldier stationed at Tartus told Kommersant, adding that the specialists should be rotated out of Syria in three months.

This was confirmed by an unidentified source in Russia’s General Staff, the military’s highest command authority, Kommersant reported. The General Staff source said that the expansion of Tartus into a full-scale naval base was not connected with any imminent Russian intervention in Syria’s civil war.

Instead, after its expansion, “[Tartus] will simply be able to accommodate first- and second-rank ships from the Russian Mediterranean flotilla,” the source said, referring to the Russian designation for ships ranging in size from large cruisers to destroyers and large landing ships and transports.

This points to a two-pronged vision for the future of Russia’s Syrian naval outpost — currently Russia’s only pit-stop in the Mediterranean, said Dr. Theodore Karasik, a UAE-based military and geopolitical expert.

“The Russian port in Tartus, although small, is a main entry point for Russian equipment to support the Syrian government,” Karasik said. “[However], Russia seeks to expand Tartus not only because of the required throughput necessary to help the Syrian government, but also to increase Moscow’s presence in the eastern Mediterranean.”

So, now we know why Russia's Northern Fleet is headed for Syria. Some rest and relaxation at Moscow's Club Med.

Much more at the link.

Nothing like a war (or an impending war) to renew one's interest in geography.