Alison's Quick Connects -- July 17, 2026

Locator: 51191B. 

Alison's quick connects:

• MDU proposes 14.5% electric rate increase; monthly bills would rise $19 -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota county approves a data center. It's not the end of the world -- Dickinson Press

• Major iron company takes next step in development of a future plant in Minot -- KFYR-TV

• Applied Digital expands in ND, eyes Oliver County for third data center -- Valley News Live

• Safety not a factor in determining North Dakota pipeline routes says PSC attorney -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota AI and Data Center Committee holds first meeting, launches months'-long study -- KFYR-TV

• North Dakota's Public Service Commission defends its approval of Summit carbon pipeline -- KSCJ

• District 11 Dems endorse Cara Cody-Braun to run for the seat of the late Rep. Liz Conmy -- Dickinson Press

• 100-degree heat wave causing pavement buckling along stretches of I-94, says NDDOT -- KX News

• Dangerous heat continues in North Dakota; century-old record falls in Dickinson -- Bismarck Tribune

• Judge Dan Traynor's nomination to 8th Circuit approved by committee, moves to full Senate -- John Hoeven

• State tourism economic impact report estimates a $57M loss in Canadian spending -- Dickinson Press

• Governor Armstrong to vote against school meals ballot measure in November -- North Dakota Monitor

• Capstone Academy challenges constitutionality of North Dakota teacher licensing -- Williston Herald

• Levi Bachmeier, Tracy Foss move on to November election in state superintendent race -- Williston Herald

• North Dakota public schools are switching student information software to Infinite Campus -- KX News

• State auditor explains disclaimer of opinion for Williston Basin School District #7 -- Williston Herald

• Commissioners approve Bankhead-Jones fund distributions to local districts -- McKenzie County Farmer

• CSPS officials await architectural cost assessment for elementary school upgrade -- The Center Republican

• South Heart School Board discusses lack of bus driver to Dickinson and increasing fees -- Dickinson Press

• U Mary expands its commitment to military members, veterans, and their families -- Bowman County Pioneer

• New Hazen School Board organizes ahead of 2026-27 academic year with new member -- Hazen Star

• Beulah Public Schools has successfully transitioned into its new information system -- The Beacon

• NDSCS President Rod Flanigan announces retirement December 31 after four year tenure -- Williston Herald

• Teddy Roosevelt Presidential Library releases opening attendance numbers in the thousands -- KFYR-TV

• Theodore Roosevelt AI avatar ready for your questions ? but stick to the past -- Bowman County Pioneer

• A spectacular $450 million Theodore Roosevelt library deep in the Badlands -- The New York Times

• Several Minot roads closed Saturday morning for annual North Dakota State Parade -- Minot Daily News

• Crosby Airport Authority moving forward with long-planned, $1.4M hangar construction project -- The Journal

• McKenzie County Commission grapples with 133rd Avenue project extension -- McKenzie County Farmer

• Williams County Commission approves 1-mile setback for all future wind turbines -- Williston Herald

• Williston City Commission gains three new members, one being the new mayor -- Williston Herald

• Ward County taking concerns about perpetual federal easements to Congress -- Minot Daily News

• Health Freedom North Dakota hosts town hall amid growing data center debate -- McKenzie County Farmer

• NDCF accepting applications for Statewide Greatest Needs Fund -- Minot Daily News

• Keystone Pipeline system operator agrees to pay $26.9M penalty over major Kansas oil spill -- KFYR-TV

• The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025, extending 8 year streak -- EIA

• Strait of Hormuz reopened less than a month ago, but Dubai is already planning for next closure -- Oil Price

• Regarding energy, the left wants us to live smaller lives. Americans don't do that. -- RealClearEnergy

• US Department of Energy unveils draft triennial National Transmission Needs Study -- E&E News

• Tech companies face fundamental choice with no winning answer to keep data centers cool -- E&E News

• OPEC further lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast marking third downward revision -- Reuters

• New York governor orders first statewide moratorium on large-scale data centers -- North Dakota Monitor

• Trump eyes 'premier' access to Iraq's oil reserves through country's newly elected prime minister -- The Hill

• 'Ridiculously high': Trump's Hormuz toll would send energy prices skyrocketing, analysts warn -- E&E News

• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announces anti-business move; moratorium on data centers -- ABC News

• US reimposes blockade and steps up strikes as Iran threatens to halt Mideast energy exports -- The Hill

• PJM hits price cap again for its electricity capacity auction, falls short of reliability requirement -- E&E News

• Inflation cools more than expected in June as gas costs fall, underlying price pressures ease -- KX News

• US national average price of gasoline could top $4 per gallon within a week after brief reprieve -- Oil Price

• Global electricity consumption from data centers grew by 17% in 2025, reaching 2% of total -- E&E News

• Bipartisan group of senators push Russia oil sanctions bill, honoring late Senator Graham -- KFYR-TV

• Chevron moves closer to Iraq's biggest oil prize West Qurna 2?and a Hormuz exit strategy -- Oil Price

• Chinese government export controls on critical minerals puts $6.5T of global industry at risk -- Oil Price

• Why fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is such a challenge -- The Hill

End-Of_Day Report -- July 17, 2026

Locator: 51190B. 

Boom stage / manufacturing stage: for folks who remember the transition from "boom stage" to "manufacturing stage" we may be seeing the same thing with regard to large language models. 

During the "boom stage," money has precedence over time -- move as fast as one can; worry about expenses later. During the "manufacturing stage, it's just the opposite -- time is now more important than money. Companies and investors are more concerned about cash flow during the manufacturing stage; some analysts are now arguing that we have more than enough "compute" / large language models right now. These analysts want to see profits, free cash flow. etc.  

The "Kimi Model spooked the tech market today: my only comment is this "DeepSeek" all over again?

• the "Kimi model" -- announced o/a July 17, 2026, a very, very strong large language model (LLM) but it's ... CHINESE. July 17, 2026. A Chinese chatbot. 

The "Kimi Model": 

• The "Kimi model" is a family of advanced large language models developed by Moonshot AI, an Alibaba-backed Chinese artificial intelligence startup. CNBC and Wall Street are heavily focusing on its newest release, the Kimi K3, because it is a massive 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that performs neck-and-neck with top U.S. systems.

• The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) just approved seven on-device mobile AI services total. Apple Intelligence is one of those seven approved services, alongside local smartphone competitors like Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo. China government, like Trump, picking winners and losers?

Query: for cellphones / smart phones, among countries and/or regions (the EU, for example), China is the largest market by far? Accurate? 

Reply: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.49. Settled. But different numbers will continue to be "floated." No pun intended. 

Active rigs: 26. 

Just one new permit, #43130 --

• 43130, loc, Devon Energy, Bluefin 13F-2H, Siverston, SWSW 13-149-98, 
• to be sited 405 FSL and 424 FWL.

Eight permits renewed:

• Devon Energy (6): six Fredericks East permits, Twin Buttes, Cunn County (Twin Buttes, historically is a great field); SESW 6-147-92. 
• Lime Rock (2): two Reben Scneider permits, Fayette oil field, Dunn County (folks might remember the Fayette oil field -- a "big" field during the boom; mixed results); NENE 27-143-96. 

Shock! Apple Ahead Of Nvidia As World's Most Valuable Company -- Friday -- July 17, 2026

Locator: 51189AAPL. 

Updates

Later, 1:03 p.m.: perhaps a most important article for successful investors to read who need to re-balance their portfolios. Link here. An investing process that comes with many rules / guard rails. It may not work for me. The IRS is looking at this and not in a good way. It may not work for many folks who simply got lucky with one stock with a portfolio with very few tickers. The article does raise a lot of questions and questions about how one might get around the IRS rules. The comments may be helpful; many comments are of interest. I may have missed it but the article does not mention "step up / cost basis" for those who can use it. For those in "community property" states, "step up / cost basis is even better. None of this is investment advice. This is not an investment site. See disclaimer. All I'm doing is point folks toward an interesting article that might otherwise be overlooked. From the article: 

Under federal law, for you to be able to defer capital-gains tax in a 351, a single issuer’s stock can’t exceed 25% of the portfolio you contribute to the ETF, and five stocks can’t exceed 50% of your total. Cash doesn’t count in the calculations.

If those Apple shares are 20% of your invested assets, but you also own an S&P 500 index fund, you’re out of luck. Your index fund has just over 7% of its assets in Apple, raising your combined exposure well past 25%.

“If most of your wealth is concentrated in a single stock or two, this is not a tool for you,” says Savina Rizova, co-chief investment officer at Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Another caveat: Some recent 351 ETF maneuvers reportedly caught the eye of the U.S. Treasury Department. The agency is said to be considering clarifying its guidance, although analysts don’t expect the government to block these transactions.

 

Original Post 

Whoo-hoo! Apple market cap surpasses Nvidia's  reclaiming spot as world's most valuable company. $4.911 trillion and moving up for AAPL; $4.834 trillion for NVID.

At market open:

• WTI: up 3.34%; up $2.64, now trading at $81.54.CVX: up $3.16 today; up 1.72%; trading at $187.02. Later: ten minutes later -- AAPL just reversed; now down $1.64 just 25 minutes into trading day. Only energy is going to save your portfolio today. 
• US 3-2-1 crack spread is at a record high; has gone over $70. 
• traders moving into defensive stocks -- BRK-B up slmost 2%; one of the best days the company has had in awhile; yesterday we learned that BRK-B was back to aggressive buy-backs. 
• July consumer sentiment: 
• 54.5% vs 50.5% estimate;
• The July preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released at 54.4, beating the expected 51.0 and improving from the prior 49.5. This indicates a strong positive shift in how American consumers view both current economic conditions and their future financial prospect
• personal note for the archives: my investment income for the next twelve months has now hit a. new all-time high. Whoo-hoo. 

Danger point: WTI at $90 -- senior analyst at CNBC, 8:37 a.m., Friday, July 17, 2026. 

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

All Indications: Trump Has Crossed The Rubicon -- July 17, 2026

Locator: 51188B.  

Pageviews for the blog: may have hit an all-time record last last night.  

Market:

• a) unless you need to do something today with regard to investing, avoid the market today;
• opportunity to grab a falling knife? 
• b) watch the PGA; it's now live on USA; US Open is about six hours ahead of eastern / central US time;
• big names not at the top: DeChambeau (11th); Scheffler (19th); Gotterup (34th);  Rory (50th)
• most other names I don't recognize 
• Lucas Herbert, at the top, moved up 38 places on the leaderboard in second round (now at 18th hole); 
• despite location on leaderboard, actual number of strokes suggest it's anyone's tournament yet to win; 
• even Rory could surprise: off tee he has remarkable length and often great accuracy (off tee).
• projected cut: +1, though some announcers suggest +2 
• Scottie Scheffler to tee off at 9:04 a.m. CT -- that's almost two hours from now.
• the Brits certainly don't mess around with bunkers/sand traps; should be called "sand pits" 
• c) enjoy your energy stocks 

WTI: back over $80, up almost $2; up 2.4%, as Mideast gets "worse."  

What spooked the "chip" market? Or is it simply a head fake to benefit traders? 

Many chip tickers up 3-digit percent past year and folks are concerned about 2% correction in futures market. In a little over an hour, Jim Cramer will give us the answers. Mutual funds locking in gains; end of third quarter coming up fast. Summer doldrums -- getting ready for August?

The DJI: market up another 6% since it "reversed" all losses back in May. Pick your dates. I've picked Mid-May, 2026 (May 19), and mid-July, 2026 (yesterday). 

Trump is now the one asking for renewed negotiations. Not much more to say. 

"Tit for tat" not working says Victor Davis Hanson. Trump's political opposition in the US not saying much on x. The opposition is apparently giving Trump/Hegseth a lot of rope to hang themselves, as they say. Could Hegseth's days be numbered? The best thing Trump could do for the mid-terms: get rid of Hegseth. Unfortunately, the deputy has absolutely no military experience. It must be very, very tense in the Situation Room. Four months to mid-terms.

Paradox: "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?" 

It is a classic thought experiment that relies on two mutually exclusive premises: logically, both cannot exist in the same universe, as one automatically proves the other impossible." Iranian leaders not "logical" so advantage goes to the Iranians. Of course, Hegseth isn't exactly logical according to most.

Taco Bell, Taylor Farms: any comments on blog with regard to "source," is preceded by "alleged."  

Futures Turn Negative -- July 16 / 17, 2026

Locator: 51187B.  

Something spooked someone: early last evening (July 16, 2026), all major markets suddenly turned red -- upwards of 250 - 350 points. Later, futures, 7:38 a.m., July 17, 2026 -- huge rotation -- chips down 2%; energy up 2%. 

WTI: oil was back up about a dollar, but still under $80. Trading at $79.88.

Mideast: another night of Allied attacks on Iran. Iran hitting US-associated sites in neighboring Mideast countries. 

Iraq: as previously announced --- this is pretty amazing -- the leader of the country of Iraq visiting Houston, TX -- 

More on Iraq, link here -- 

More from the link:

Chevron is taking another step toward expanding its footprint in Iraq, and is set to sign two memoranda of understanding on Friday that will move the U.S. supermajor closer to developing the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield and the Nassiriya project. The agreements aren't binding, but they push negotiations forward on what could become one of Chevron's biggest upstream investments in years.

West Qurna 2 is no small prize. The southern Iraqi field currently produces about 460,000 barrels per day after Iraq nationalized the asset earlier this year following U.S. sanctions on Russia's Lukoil. Chevron entered exclusive talks for the field in February, and Friday's agreement advances negotiations on the commercial terms needed for a final deal.

Nassiriya is smaller today but comes with significant exploration upside. Chevron and Iraq also signed an agreement in principle last year covering the field and four surrounding exploration blocks, giving the company another potential long-term growth platform in one of OPEC's largest producers.

The oilfields aren't the only reason Chevron is talking to Baghdad. The company is also working with Iraq on technical studies for new export pipelines that would allow crude to reach the Mediterranean without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron is part of a consortium that signed an agreement earlier this month to evaluate possible routes, including options that could connect Iraq's producing fields with Syria or other regional export corridors.

Comments: This is pretty impressive -- ever since CVX acquired Hess, I've been very, very impressed with what CVX has done.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.88.

New wells reporting:

• Sunday, July 19, 2026: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 385 for the year, 
• 42471, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hoiby 158-94-4C-3-3H, 
• the parent Hoiby well (#19039) drilled in 10/10, has produced 210K bbls crude oil cumulative, and is currently producing 1,000 bbls/month; 
• 42019, conf, Murfin Drilling, LC Rambousek 1-15H, 
• 41984, conf, Murfin Drilling, LC Rambousek 1-16H
• Saturday, July 18, 2026: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 382 for the year, 
• 41539, conf, Devon Energy, Stallion 33-28 XE 1H, 
• Friday, July 17, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 381 for the year, 
• 42446, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hoiby 158-94-4C-3-4H, 
• 22057, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 29-32 1H, 
• 22056, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 29-32 2H, 

RBN Energy: for now at least, US LPG, ethane exports can't grow without it. Link here. Archived here.

Over the past 18 months, Gulf Coast dock capacity capable of handling either LPG or ethane has grown significantly. It’s something relatively new called “flex capacity,” and it’s a darned good thing it’s online. Without it, both LPG and ethane export capacity would already be maxed out. That would leave U.S. producers with no ability to increase exports — or production that depends on those exports — by another single molecule. As it is, flex capacity is allowing both the LPG and ethane export markets to continue growing, at least for now. But how that flex capacity is allocated between LPG and ethane will have an increasingly important influence on exports and ultimately on the flow dynamics of both markets. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review how rapidly LPG and ethane exports have grown, how flex export facilities work, the impact of export capacity constraints we are seeing in the markets today, and what all of that means for the next phase of U.S. LPG and ethane export growth. 

LPG and Ethane Exports Soar

As shown in Figure 1 below, U.S. exports of LPG and ethane have expanded dramatically over the past several years, with almost all of that growth occurring on the Gulf Coast. The left graph shows U.S. LPG exports, with the green layer showing exports from PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and the blue layer showing LPG exports from the other PADDs, mostly from Energy Transfer’s Marcus Hook terminal on the East Coast and AltaGas’s Ferndale facility on the West Coast. Similarly, the orange layer in the right graph shows ethane exports from the Gulf Coast and the purple layer shows ethane exports from elsewhere (again, from Marcus Hook). U.S. LPG exports have more than doubled from about 1.2 MMb/d in 2018 to 2.6 MMb/d so far in 2026 (for an 11% compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), while ethane exports have climbed even faster, from roughly 0.25 MMb/d to nearly 0.7 MMb/d (13% CAGR) over the same period. About 90% of that growth has come from PADD 3, underscoring the Gulf Coast's position as the epicenter of the world’s NGL export market.