WTI Just Shy Of $75; Trudeau Ready To Resign; US Equity Market Surging; Nvidia, Chips Jump; Semis Surge On Foxconn's Record 4Q24, Tariff Policy Likely To Be Pared Back, More Targeted -- Manic Monday -- January 6, 2025

Locator: 44626B.

See disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Disclaimer links at sidebar and at the "welcome," top of blog.

Tech: link here.

CNBC: semiconductors surge on news of Foxconn's record profits, 4Q24. Story posted on the blog over the weekend.

AVGO, AMZN, AAPL: has/have the magnificent-7 morphed into the amazing trio?

• NVDA: heading toward record territory today; 
• very, very interesting in light of the "anti-Nvidia" commercial regularly airing on CNBC for past several months.

Steel:

NYC congestion pricing: spokesperson, "commuters will acclimate."

In other words, this is simply a revenue play, and an attempt to save the subway system. Sarah Eisen, CNBC certainly seems very, very negative on this initiative. This, likely, will be another nail in the coffin for those NYC companies thinking about moving out of state, or, in some cases, out of City.

Market: 

Chips, say what? See this post. 

Local: our north Texas economy is doing incredibly well, but not unexpectedly, we're starting to see struggling restaurants announcing closures. Most amazing: McAlister's Deli in Colleyville, TX, announced that it is closing after 17 years at that location. Colleyville: "old money" and lots of it.

Tariffs: already CNBC is backtracking on Trump's tariffs, suggesting that Trump's tariffs will be very, very targeted. All of a sudden, not so worrisome. GM is up 4%; Ford is up almost 2%. 

Short sellers, 2024: down huge in 2024 -- especially those shorting tech and especially Nvidia. 

• Short seller losses: biggest short seller losers
• Nnvidia: -81% 
• Tesla: -64% 
• Apple: -30% (put the "Fast Money" group, led by Dan Nathan in that group?)
  
• Avgo: -83%
• Meta: -45%
• Short seller winners:
• INTC: up 80%

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.95.

New wells:

• Tuesday, January 7, 2025: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter,10 for the year,
• 40757, conf, Neptune Operating, Skedsvold 20-29-32 6H,
• 40453, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 3101-4BH,
• 40294, conf, BR, Nordeng 2B TFH,
• 40210, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1301-3BH,
• 39998, conf, Hess, GO-State-157-97-2116H-5,
• Monday, January 6, 2025: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 5 for the year,
• 40756, conf, Neptune Operating, Skedsvold 20-29-32 6H,
• Sunday, January 5, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,
• None.
• Saturday, January 4, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,
• None.

RBN Energy:  after a long slide, Alaska's crude oil production appears primed for rebound.

Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil production has been sliding for years — decades really — but that is poised to change in the second half of the 2020s. Two long-planned ANS projects — Pikka and Willow — are slated to start up in 2026 and 2029, respectively. By the early 2030s, these and other projects in the works could return North Slope production to levels not seen since the turn of the century. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss these projects and our new, long-term forecast for ANS oil production — a topic in our upcoming Future of Fuels report.

The Market Will Be Closed Thursday, January 9, 2025 -- National Day Of Mourning -- President Jimmy Carter -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44625RALLY.

At least as far as I understand conflicting headlines, the US equity markets will be closed Thursday.

**********************
Trudeau To Resign?

Link here.

***************************
Santa Claus Rally

I had to chuckle at the end of the year, all those analysts commiserating about the Santa Claus rally, or lack thereof, this year. Never satisfied.

Next up? The Trump rally.

A look back.

Link here.

Link here.

I have trouble thinking we could have three consecutive years with 20%+ returns.

But, seriously, when do the pundits start talking about the Trump rally?

Google: How Is An AI Chip Different Than A Legacy CPU Or GPU? AI Responds -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44624TECH.

If AI was all that great, it would have given me the answer before I asked the question. Whatever. 

Anyway, I asked the question and here's the AI answer:

But look at this: do an "NPU" word search on the blog -- and near the top of that search:

Remember, just to bring me up to date: CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, XPUs.

XPU: see this post.

Apple Is Collaborating With Broadcom To Develop Its First AI-Focused Server Chip -- It Will Be Here Before We Know It -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44623AAPL.

I spend a lot of time following RBN Energy to keep up with the nuances in the US oil and gas sector. I'm beginning to wonder, as an investor, if that's my best use of time. Look at what I missed. It was only because a reader wrote to tell that Intel is no longer paying a dividend that I stumbled across this.

Intel's dividend and this story have absolutely no relationship; there are no dots to connect, but on the internet, when surfing, it's amazing what one may come across. In this case, Baltra.

Go to MacRumors and do a word search on that site: Baltra. 

Tonight? Nada.

But look at what others are reporting.

And look who, when where --

Arizona, TSMC, Broadcom (AVGO), Apple.

Tim Cook playing the long game. 

Let's take a look at the India Magazine report:

Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop its first AI-focused server chip, a move aimed at preparing to address the intense computing demands of its AI features.

The chip, internally code-named “Baltra”, is projected to enter mass production by 2026. The initiative mirrors strategies employed by other tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Meta, which have designed custom chips to support AI services. 

The collaboration highlights Apple’s strategic effort to reduce dependence on NVIDIA, which dominates the AI chip market. The chip will reportedly use Broadcom’s networking technology to optimise AI processing and employ advanced manufacturing processes from TSMC. What’s in for Apple? 

Broadcom shares rose by five percent following the announcement, reflecting the company’s growing role in AI chip manufacturing. 

TSMC’s advanced N3P fabrication process is reported to be used for Baltra. Apple and Broadcom declined to comment on the report. 

Apple’s in-house silicon team in Israel is leading the project, focusing on a chiplet design that improves efficiency and reduces complexity. The design incorporates Apple’s Neural Engine technology to enhance AI task performance. 

This initiative aligns with Apple’s recent AI advancements, including features that generate text, create images, and summarise content. While Apple’s current chips power some AI features, they are not as efficient as chips designed specifically for AI processing. 

Broadcom, which has also partnered with Google on AI chips, will provide networking technology but allow Apple to retain control over the chip’s overall design and production. 

Growth by Partnerships.

This partnership also builds on an existing multi-billion-dollar deal between Apple and Broadcom to produce 5G radio frequency components, announced last year. Apple previously shared plans to integrate its own server chips to power AI features on its devices.

This is an incredible story and confirms what I've been saying for the past year, if not the past two years. Time flies.Wow, if this doesn't help me with my investment decisions, I don't know what would.

Not stated above: Apple may also have the best AI server already in service. 

Now, the Baltra chip. 

AAPL: $3.9 trillion market cap. P/E: 40. Forward P/E: 32.68.

AVGO: $1.1 trillion market cap. P/E: 180. Forward P/E: 36.63.

See this post, also.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  
• Longer version here.   

SpaceX -- Tell Me Again What NASA Has Been Doing Since 1969? January 5, 2025

Locator: 44622ROCKETS.

NASA? Leaving astronauts stranded in space.

Link here. Be sure to read the entire thread.

More: