Saturday, November 4, 2023

That Word Keeps Popping Up -- "Goldilocks" -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45936JOBS.

More from the top economic story posted yesterday by The WSJ:

 "Goldilocks Job Report"

Their Words, Note Mine

Later, 10:12 p.m. PT: link here


From the linked article:

The S&P 500 rallied Friday, capping its best weekly performance since November 2022, after the latest monthly jobs report suggested the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate raising campaign is working.
The broad index gained 0.9%, bringing its gains for the week to 5.9%.
The index is up 14% this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 200 points, or 0.7%, on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%. Those indexes also recorded their biggest weekly percentage gains of the year.
New economic data and the Fed’s latest policy decision gave investors hope that the economy is pulling back enough for inflation to abate without falling into a recession—and that interest rates could be near their peak.
The October jobs report showed hiring slowed last month. Employers added 150,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday, half the prior month’s gain and below economists’ expectations.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth eased.
“The jobs report was a Goldilocks report,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “We may be getting a soft landing.”
All but one of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose Friday. The energy sector slipped 1% as Brent crude dropped 2.3% to $84.89 a barrel.
All but one of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose Friday. The energy sector slipped 1% as Brent crude dropped 2.3% to $84.89 a barrel.

Unemployment Numbers -- October, 2023

Locator: 45935JOBS.

Link here.


Laser-Focused On Dividends: Chord Energy Dividend -- November 3, 2023

Locator: 45934DIV.

Three different sources, as of today, November 3, 2023:


Oasis Peregrine Wells Update -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45933B.

These are incredibly good wells.

The wells, all remain confidential:

  • 38780, 19813.1, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 2B, Todd, t--; cum --;
  • 38781, 17181.1, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 3B, Todd, t--; cum --;
  • 38782, 17180.1, conf, Peregrine 5401 42-24 4B, Todd, t--; cum --;

Todd oil field: Williston.

A lot of Williston folks are eagerly waiting for these wells to come off confidential status.

38780:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20233284129276
8-20234006937114
7-20232768023672
6-20232880122956
5-2023100577986

38781:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20232374121881
8-20232466022052
7-20232188218979
6-20232127617702
5-202334142728

38782:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20232532322069
8-20231760114793
7-20231779614336
6-20232101416932
5-202328322394

An Open Letter To Readers -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- Not About The Bakken -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45932ARCH.

Not ready for prime time. 

Wow, I'm in a great mood; a great day for traveling.

These five-day quick trips are the cat's meow. So, far in the past month or so:

  • a five-day trip (by car) from Dallas, TX, to Philadelphia, and back with stops at Gettysburg and Shiloh and as many Buc-ee's as we could fit in; then, 
  • a four-day car-trip from Dallas, TX, to Chattanooga / Nashville, TN, for a couple of events; and,
  • now this past week, five days in Portland, OR, to see the grandsons.

There is something good to say about each trip. The Portland trip seems to be the most relaxing, the most comfortable. The trip took me back to the days when I traveled everywhere by public and commercial transportation.

I did not look forward to my trip to Portland: it was by air and I hate to travel by air. Although, I'm always pleasantly surprised how nice the experience really is if one takes advantage of what it has to offer.

I return to DFW today and am now at PDX, at a McDonald's where I had a full breakfast for $3.98 vs about $9.00 for something much smaller -- and a much, much longer line -- at Starbucks.

Two F-15's just landed and have just taxied past McDonald's. Great memories. The F-15 was my primary a/c in the USAF, all of those F-15 days in Europe. My F-111 days were in England. 

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Portland

Portland remains as wonderful as ever. It's great for one-week visitors but it would be too expensive and weather too inclement for me to live here permanently. I do too much walking and biking. And swimming.

I assume the homeless situation is as bad as ever but I did not notice it. I stay with the grandsons out in east Portland, on the edge of Gresham. I did not get down to Powell Book Store this trip. Insert sad face here. Halloween with the grandsons is now an annual event. Weather was perfect.

************************
MAX

Times;

  • depart, 9:07:  122nd Avenue NE
  • transfer, 9:20: 99th Avenue NE / transit center
  • transfer, 9:25: 99th Avenue NE / transit center
  • arrive, 9:35: airport.

***********************
American Airlines

Non-stop, DFW to PXD and back. In off-season and the flight to PXD was a full plane which surprised me. Fare about $400 round trip with no baggage and no preferred seating. I've noticed, over the years, passengers in the seats in the back of the plane arrive about the same time as passengers in first class. Albert Einstein might have something to say about that.

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Addictions

They say some folks are addicted to porn, others addicted to alcohol, and still others too gambling. I assume there are folks addicted to all three. I wouldn’t know. My addictions: blogging and investing. Hobbies: biking and reading.

Other quasi-addictions / obsessions: Lego, Apple (not as an investment, but as a company). 

Others: Duolingo (1,138-day streak). Spanish.

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Reading

I have a blog devoted to "literature." Our daughter will home-school the grandsons until at least high school. She is always looking for educational resources. She was particularly happy with my blog on the evolution of story-telling.

As usual, I read several books at a time, but I always have a "go-to" book at any time. Currently my "go-to" book is a 1000-page softcover, A History of the Jews in America. My takeaway from this book, 104 pages into the story: if every culture had the work ethic of the Ashkenazi Jew the world would be a different place. 

Reading the book melds three of my favorite activities: reading, reminiscing, and traveling.

I am simply amazed at all the locations that pop up in the book that relate to me in a very, very meaningful way. Two examples:

  • Gettysburg; and,
  • Filene's. LOL.

****************************
Investing

Let's see. Much, much more to write but I have to head to my gate. I will post two screenshots, both comparing share prices of Southern Copper (SCCO) and Berkshire. The first is a one-yer look-back; the second is a five-year look-back.

Note that SCCO pays around 5% and always has (?) whereas BRK pays no dividend.

For five years, the average price of SCCO, I suppose, has run about $60 per share; 5% x an original $10,000 investment would have paid about $2,500 over those five or six years. I don't know. Needs to be fact-checked.

And, of course, all those dividends, about $2,500 would have been re-invested in the market.

Now, the graphs:


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Dividends