Wednesday, January 25, 2023

US Big Oil Re-Engaging -- January 25, 2023

I think folks can connect the dots. For the archives: at this time, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine.

Huge Chevron deal in the Mideast, Simon Watkins. 

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- January 25, 2023

The weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in commercial storage is 3% above the five-year average.
  • US crude oil in commercial storage increased by a paltry 0.5 million bbls
  • US imports of crude oil unchanged week-after-week-after-week
  • US refiners are operating at 86.1% capacity
  • distillate fuel inventories are a whopping 20% below the five-year average as we move into planting season
  • surprising: jet fuel supplied was down 1.9% compared with same four-week period last year (the four weeks included weather and Southwest airline issues)

Earnings Today, Leopards And Abrams, And So Much More -- January 25, 2023

Dividends: NSC -- from Zacks --

Dividends can be considered one of the most rewarding elements of investing in the stock market.
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC has not disappointed its shareholders on the front and has provided regular dividends since its inception in 1982.
The company has announced a 9% increase in the quarterly dividend amounting to $1.35 from the previous $1.24.
The new dividend is payable on February 21, 2023, to its shareholders of record on February 3, 2023.
Norfolk Southern has an impressive history of rewarding its shareholders. In 2021, the company rewarded its shareholders to the tune of $4,418 million, through dividends ($1,028 million) and share buybacks (3,390 million).

SLB: link here.

HES: tops 4Q22 earnings and revenue estimates.

T: stock leaps after 4Q22 earnings beat, dividend support. 

ASML: great report. Barron's.  CNBC.

Boeing: oh-oh. 4Q22 surprise ... and not in a good way.

Huge Chevron deal in the Mideast, Simon Watkins. 

SRE: strikes 20-year LNG supply deal with Poland's PKN ORLEN. Link here. And, SeekingAlpha.

French nuclear. Why it's failing miserably, and back from the abyss?

Ukraine:

  • that earthquake the Russians are about to feel: German Leopards and US Abrams. 
  • Biden at noon today. 
  • This is going to be huge. Germans said "yes," but said Americans must follow suit. 
  • Biden at noon today. Did I already say that? 

Jet fuel:

  • climbing jet fuel demand could increase beyond 20% year-on-year growth;
  • despite accounting for just 6% of global oil demand in 2022, jet fuel demand is expected to have an outsize impact on global oil markets this year
  • IEA: jet fuel demand may account for 45% of global oil demand growth of 1.9 bpd
  • source: Kayrros

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $80.96.

Natural gas: $3.139.

Thursday, January 26, 2023: 61 for the month; 61 for the quarter, 61 for the year
39047, conf,  CLR, Kelling 7-4H1,
38583, conf, Whiting, Dexter TTT 11-26-2H,
38581, conf, Whiting, Maria TTT 11-26HU,

Wednesday, January 25, 2023: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 58 for the year
39048, conf, CLR, Kelling 8-4H,
39000, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-5,
38867, conf, Prima Exploration, Yogi Bear State 3H,
34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18H,

RBN Energy: Colorado E&Ps learn to deal with state's tougher rules. 

New, stiffer rules on well siting, drilling and production undoubtedly pose potential challenges to producers. After all, these changes typically impose further limits on what E&Ps can do on the acreage they control as well as new requirements. But like death and taxes, environmental regulation is a certainty that producers need to deal with and, if they’re lucky, they can find a way to work with new rules and minimize their impact on their businesses. That seems to be what’s happening in Colorado — home to the rebounding Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin and other production areas — which enacted a new oil and gas permitting law a couple of years ago and subsequently developed and implemented related regulations. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, most producers seem to have figured out how to manage the new regs.

Colorado isn’t California and it isn’t Texas, and our guess is that, generally speaking, Coloradans are happy with that. The state’s got amazing mountains, crisp and clean air, awesome skiing and cool microbreweries, plus a strong economy, relatively low taxes, and great cities, towns and rural areas to call home. It also seems to have found an acceptable middle ground on the regulation of the oil and gas industry.

Let's See If This Analyst's Forecast Ages Well -- My Counter-Point: "Production Follows Price" -- Seems Obvious -- January 25, 2025

Updates

January 25, 2023: as I said earlier (see below), "production follows price." 

January 22, 2023: global upstream to increase a whopping twelve percent in 2023. Think SLB?

January 21, 2023: update. 

Original Post 

This will be a most interesting story to follow. 

The "talking points": 

I respectfully disagree. Maybe someday I'll explain why.

For now, this will do: "production follows price." 

But right or wrong, for an investor, it really does not matter. It's all very, very bullish. 

And don't forget, the Biden administration official energy policy is "no more drilling." 

Shale Production -- Update -- January 25, 2023

This is where this all started.

Link here.

Full thread here.