Updates
September 4, 2016: the "energy use" story below has generated a lot of discussion. A reader reminds me of this link that I posted earlier:
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ier_lcoe_2015.pdf
Some years ago I noted that our utility company down here in Texas prided itself in "going green," which meant using wind energy. Our utility bills are fairly high here in Texas -- considering how inexpensive it could be -- I knew it was due to wind energy but never took the time to really look into it.
A reader answered the question for me. On pages 29 - 31 of the linked pdf above:
- combined cycle gas: $73.61/MWh
- ccg combined with wind: $86.77/MWh
- the delta: $13/mwh. In other words, per MWh, we are paying $13 more to feel good using wind energy
Original Post
US Energy Use
3x In 2015 Compared to 1949
US population, 1949: 150 million
US population, 2015: 320 million
So, US population doubles during this time period, and energy use triples. That's counter-intuitive for any number of reasons.
The first question: households?
- 2015: 125 million households
- 1960: 50 million households (that's as far back as I could find reliable data for # of households)
- larger houses: more appliances, more air conditioning
- more drivers per household
- increased standard of living: more money; feel better about using a/c; appliances, etc
The EIA posts:
Energy consumption in the United States was three times greater in 2015 than it was in 1949. In all but 19 of the years between 1949 and 2015, energy consumption increased over the previous year.
The next time you take a walk -- yes, I know that's a stretch, taking a walk -- but if that happens, the next time you take a walk, imagine if all the cars you see in parking lots and on the roads were electric vehicles. No internal combustion vehicles (except for trucks) and all EVs. No hybrids. All EVs.Imagine the landscape.
- no corner gasoline service stations; none.
- gazillions of charging stations; half the parking spaces with charging stations; electric cables everywhere; every parking lot and every parking space a mini-service station
- apartment complexes: every unit comes with two charging stations
- absolutely quiet roadways; no "muscle cars"
- used cars pretty much become a dead industry; no one will buy autos with batteries that are 7+ years old
- 0 to 60 mph from frontage roads up the ramp to the interstate highway
- an occasional car going up in spontaneous combustion; entirely random events
- every home you see with a garage has a charging station with two or three outlets
- chariots in garages; chariots on fire --> houses on fire
- the transmission wires and poles will triple or quadruple; utility lines won't be buried
- "telephone" poles much thicker; stronger
- instead of two or three transformers on every utility pole, five or six transformers and much bigger in size
- out of sight, huge coal-fire utility plants; there is no way there is enough natural gas to power all the cars in the US; global CO2 emissions will increase, all other things being equal
- new huge, high-voltage transmission lines will dominate the landscape
- huge, new landfills to handle all the used batteries; I don't think folks really realize what it would mean to be 100% EV;
- if grid unable to cope: increased brownouts, blackouts; folks will invest in home battery units; EVs charged at work can be used to "run" household appliances
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ExxonMobil and LNG
ExxonMobil playing the long game.
When it comes to natural gas, Exxon Mobil believes in playing the long game.
As competitors continue to flood the world market with a liquefied form of the fuel, depressing prices, Exxon is heeding the advice of forecasters scanning a quarter-century beyond the current glut. Their view: LNG demand will rise 1.6 percent a year through 2040, more than double the rate for crude oil.
With much of that growth set to come from the Asia-Pacific region, the world’s biggest energy producer is working to bookend the area with resources, pursuing promising but as-yet untapped natural gas fields in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique that won’t produce for years. It’s a strategy that stands in stark contrast to Royal Dutch Shell’s takeover of BG Group, an established producer that promises to quickly swell Shell’s LNG exports, even as prices remain low.
“Exxon has a different strategy in that it’s not looking to grow its gas business right now but is looking at what will happen in LNG 10 or 15 years from now,” said Brian Hennessey, who manages $1.3 billion at Alpine Woods Capital Investors. “The market’s going to get tight starting in 2020.”
The influx of LNG from gigantic projects first conceived a decade ago has swamped markets with excess supply, dropping the average worldwide price by 37 percent last year to $9.77 per million British thermal units, according to the International Gas Union.
In Japan, the world’s biggest LNG market, the price of cargoes from Qatar tumbled 70 percent in two years to $4.93 per million Btu. Spot LNG in Singapore fell 1.3% on Thursday to $5.187 per million British thermal units, according to Singapore Exchange.
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Two Articles You May Not Want To Miss
The Cloud
Space Launches
The Economist: the cloud.The Cloud
Space Launches
The Eoncomist: SpaceX and launching satellites into space. No link; apparently not on the net yet, which is hard to believe. The bottom line: inexpensive rockets may not be the be-all and end-all. If not, SpaceX may become an albatross around MuskMelon's neck. When the payload is a $200 million satellite that took years to build and then years waiting in line to be launched, the long pole in the teepee is not the cost of the launch. The Zuckerbergs of the world will worry less about the cost of the launch and more about reliability and dependability. The article was written before the latest disaster on the Spacex pad.
Update, September 4, 2016: The New York Times weighs in on SpaceX disaster:
The explosion of a SpaceX rocket last Thursday will have an impact across the space industry, far beyond the losses on the launchpad at Cape Canaveral, FL.
An Israeli satellite operator’s deal to sell itself to a Chinese company is imperiled.
Planned launches of communications satellites that support international mobile phone service and digital television are delayed and put in doubt. NASA’s cargo deliveries to the International Space Station will probably be disrupted.
All of them are customers of the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, or SpaceX, whose rocket exploded in Florida. The private space launch company, led by the entrepreneur Elon Musk, has a generally solid safety record.
But last week’s setback and a failed launch last year, when its rocket carrying a NASA cargo fell apart in flight, are raising questions about SpaceX, a company that has risen rapidly by offering lower costs and promising accelerated launch schedules.
The Obama Legacy Already Being Written --
And He's Not Even Out Of Office Yet
From Pagesix:Sean “Diddy” Combs said Sunday that black voters won’t get fooled again — insisting that Hillary Clinton has to prove herself before she gets the African-American vote since “[blacks] got a little bit shortchanged” by President Obama. “My number one thing, though, to be honest, is black people,” the rapper turned mogul told the Rev. Al Sharpton on his MSNBC show Sunday. “I feel like we put President Obama in the White House.
When I look back, I just wanted more done for my people because that’s the name of the game. “This is politics. You put somebody in office you get in return the things that you care about for your communities. I think we got a little bit shortchanged. That’s not knocking the president. …He’s done an excellent job, you know, but I think it’s time to turn up the heat because the black vote is going to decide who is the next president of the United States.”They won't be fooled again, but they will still vote for Hillary, or more likely, not at all.
#BlackLivesMatter.
